In writing about DeShawn Stevenson a while back I leaked my most top-secret player evaluation tool.
I had no idea what would happen after I leaked the information, but since that time at least one well-known writer has silently slipped the tool into his player-evaluation toolbox.
So now that the cat is out of the bag, I might as well go ahead a release the entire system.
It is called situational performance splits, or SPS.
SPS is the reason why I keep praising Baron Davis while others keep ripping him and why I had TJ Ford rated as my top free-agent point guard before I did away with the list.
Any good player evaluation system should look to find players who will lead their teams to championships.
And SPS does that by paying less attention to games which take place outside of championship environments and focusing more on players and how they perform against the best players and best teams and in the biggest games.
And if it involves the final two minutes of a one-possession game, that's even better.
Whenever I'm watching games and breaking down players I pay very close attention to the following things, which make up the essence of SPS.
INDIVIDUAL MATCHUP
After a team reaches the second round of the playoffs, you can pretty much bet that the teams are going to be loaded with the best players in the league.
In order to know if a guy can lead a team past this point, you have to know how he performs against the best players in the league at his position.
So whenever you're watching games, pay particular attention to specific matchups against top players. And at the very least you want to see specific matchups against very good players.
Some guys are better on one side of the court.
In these cases, for example, you would want to watch how a small forward plays on offense against Ron Artest and Tony Allen and on defense against Carmelo Anthony and Paul Pierce to get an idea of what he is capable of in big games.
Carmelo Anthony is someone who scores highly on my board.
For all of the stat-geek criticism, Anthony sports a 10-1 career record against Kevin Durant and a 9-4 career record against LeBron James.
And based on the swag and audacity Anthony plays with when he plays against James, I would never know James was the better player.
Anthony goes hard at James like James is some scrub in a pickup game at Rucker Park.
And that's what you look for in these individual matchups, guys who don't back down against the best competition.
And guys who are productive and win against the best competition and relish the opportunity to go against it rate highly in SPS.
It must also be pointed out that good performance is very much a product of good coaching and good teammates.
To find out why someone is underperforming you may have to look beyond his individual shortcomings and look at the coach he's playing for, the system he's playing in and the teammates he's playing with.
TEAM MATCHUP
The next thing you want to look at is team matchup.
Specifically, you want to see how someone does on offense against the best defensive teams and how they do on defense against the best offensive teams and how they do against the teams with the best records and coaches in the NBA.
All information against teams like Minnesota and New Jersey must be excluded.
Based on last year's coaches, rosters and records the following teams would be of best use: Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Los Angeles, Miami, Oklahoma City and San Antonio.
And of course, things change.
Denver, Memphis and Portland were all on fire toward the end of the season. And Oklahoma City played much better after Kendrick Perkins and Nazr Mohammed were integrated into the lineup.
So games against those teams during that time would be useful as well.
But I wouldn't go much further than that because you start getting into serious mediocrity at the coaching and/or talent levels after that point.
GAME MAGNITUDE
All games are not created equally. Some games are simply bigger than others.
And SPS looks to identify those big games and draw more conclusions from them than the other games on the schedule.
What is at stake here?
That is what you want to find out in determining the magnitude of a game.
Is it a NBA championship? A series? A division title or playoff berth? A reputation? Nothing?
It goes without saying that in order to win it all a team is going to have to win some big games, and at least some of them on the road.
And you can't win big games without big-game players.
As best as I could I built a list of the biggest games, in order of importance:
1. NBA Finals games
2. Conference finals games
3. Second round playoff games
4. First round playoff games
5. Elimination games
6. Playoff position games during the last few weeks of the season
7. Games after the All-Star break
8. Games against top teams and players
9. Playoff position games before the last few weeks of the season
10. Road games, especially those in hostile environments
11. Games during long winning streaks (in general, 10 or more wins)
12. Games on national television
Some of those categories blend into one another.
In short, what you're trying to do is turn the pressure, the intensity, the competition and the attention levels way up to get them to match what someone will face as he tries to win deeper in the playoffs.
And playoff games clearly get bigger the further you go into a series, with game seven of the NBA Finals being the biggest game possible.
Watching guys under these circumstances tells you all you need to know about them.
Coaches too.
GAME SITUATION
When I say game situation I am obviously talking about the clutch, the last two minutes of one-possession games.
Getting back to TJ Ford, he led Indiana to a win over the Lakers in Los Angeles six days after beating the Heat in Miami. And Baron Davis also has a few wins over the Lakers and Heat (one with the lowly Cavaliers) on his resume from last season.
Ford led the charge in Indiana's win over Los Angeles by flawlessly executing clutch plays down the stretch.
His play was what basketball is all about.
Let's take a look at the SPS factors and try to put some sort of value on the win.
There are some qualifiers.
Andrew Bynum didn't play. He was matched up individually against Steve Blake, who isn't a very good player. Although it clearly became a big game by the end, this wasn't a big game for Los Angeles coming in.
So you could say Indiana was able to sneak up on them and catch them by surprise with their strong play. And because it was so early in the season and the teams' records so far apart, there was very little at stake.
All that being said, this was still a significant accomplishment.
TJ Ford led lowly Indiana to a victory over the two-time defending world champion Los Angeles Lakers by outdueling Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol in the clutch, on their home floor.
I don't have a problem with that victory.
In addition, Ford led Texas to the Final Four in college and took Milwaukee and Toronto (Milwaukee and Toronto!) to the playoffs two times each.
And there is no doubt he would have helped Indiana to the playoffs with a much better record last season had he not been benched in the middle of the season for no good reason.
Mike Bibby is the only one who can match Ford's level of accomplishment among free-agent point guards, but Ford is younger than Bibby and significantly more athletic.
And that is my ultimate player evaluation tool, and it is the Holy Grail of player evaluation systems.
So when you read my work and see that I seem to be speaking a different language and operating on a different wavelength than others who cover the NBA, now you'll know why.
We are looking at two totally different things, at least.
I put little stock in 82-game performance. I put my stock in situational performance and try to pick the situations which most resemble championship caliber.
And I seek out and praise players who excel in those situations, among others.
Note: HBIQ is notorious for jinxing players and teams.
So now that I have big-upped Carmelo Anthony, Baron Davis and TJ Ford don't be surprised if they totally flame out and suck beyond all recognition for the rest of their careers.
But don't let that discourage you from using the system.
It works fine as long as I'm not the one issuing the praise.
Carmelo Anthony's career record against Kevin Durant was posted by Sarcastic on Inside Hoops. His records against Durant and LeBron James are from Basketball Reference.
And TJ Ford had Milwaukee in the playoffs during his rookie season before he got injured and missed the rest of the season. Milwaukee went on to make the playoffs without him.
I counted that in his favor because there is little doubt they would have done the same with him healthy and in the lineup.
Some of the additional Ford information I learned from Mark Medina.
To wrap it up, I would like to say that I am only one man and can't possibly keep track of all of this information by myself.
But I do the best I can with what I have.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Showing posts with label clutch. Show all posts
Showing posts with label clutch. Show all posts
Friday, August 19, 2011
Friday, April 22, 2011
TJ Ford: Closer
Remain calm!: That is what I have to keep telling myself!
Because you have no idea how irate I am over the lack of playing time TJ Ford has received lately!
And as I watch Darren Collison and Indiana melt down in the final minutes of the fourth quarter in game after game, the fury increases immeasurably and takes complete control of my emotions!
I've written about this a thousand times and said it a thousand different ways!
And still, nobody seems to be listening!
But they say a picture is worth a thousand words, and that action speaks louder than words.
And if a picture is worth a thousand words, then moving pictures must be worth quite a bit more, right?
So here is TJ Ford (according to Larry Bird and Frank Vogel, the fourth-best point guard on the team), in moving pictures, in action, closing out the Lakers in Los Angeles back in November (:30) with beautiful, flawless execution.
It is precisely what Indiana needed at the end of the regular season and what they needed against Chicago in the playoffs.
It is also what Philadelphia needs, and a few other teams.
Ford would be a perfect fit for Philadelphia, even though he is only the fourth-best point guard on Indiana's roster.
It would be a little too much to ask Ford to come in and save Indiana now, since he has barely played, and unrealistic considering how little Bird and Vogel think of him.
But teams around the NBA in need of a top-flight point guard should be giving Ford a call as soon as the Chicago series is over.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Because you have no idea how irate I am over the lack of playing time TJ Ford has received lately!
And as I watch Darren Collison and Indiana melt down in the final minutes of the fourth quarter in game after game, the fury increases immeasurably and takes complete control of my emotions!
I've written about this a thousand times and said it a thousand different ways!
And still, nobody seems to be listening!
But they say a picture is worth a thousand words, and that action speaks louder than words.
And if a picture is worth a thousand words, then moving pictures must be worth quite a bit more, right?
So here is TJ Ford (according to Larry Bird and Frank Vogel, the fourth-best point guard on the team), in moving pictures, in action, closing out the Lakers in Los Angeles back in November (:30) with beautiful, flawless execution.
It is precisely what Indiana needed at the end of the regular season and what they needed against Chicago in the playoffs.
It is also what Philadelphia needs, and a few other teams.
Ford would be a perfect fit for Philadelphia, even though he is only the fourth-best point guard on Indiana's roster.
It would be a little too much to ask Ford to come in and save Indiana now, since he has barely played, and unrealistic considering how little Bird and Vogel think of him.
But teams around the NBA in need of a top-flight point guard should be giving Ford a call as soon as the Chicago series is over.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Saturday, April 9, 2011
Score One For The Kobe-Haters
Henry Abbott and his legion of Kobe-hating followers had to wake up Wednesday feeling pretty good.
That's because the night before the man they love to hate, Kobe Bryant, found himself in a true clutch situation and failed to deliver a win for the Los Angeles Lakers.
I don't want to hear anything about what Bryant, or anyone else, does in a five-point game with five minutes to go.
That's not clutch to me.
But having the ball with a chance to take the lead in the final 10 seconds is, and that is the exact situation Bryant found himself in on Tuesday night.
He turned the ball over, and Los Angeles lost the game.
The next day, Abbott posted a Twitter message from someone giving him props for getting it right about Bryant in the clutch, someone who obviously paid no attention to the fact that Abbott's lengthy diatribe had absolutely zero information in it about how Bryant performs in the final 10 seconds in game-winning situations, one of the many objections I had to the piece when it first came out.
TNT brought us closer to the real truth about Kobe Bryant in crunch time when, before the Los Angeles game at Miami, they displayed a stat which showed Bryant was 35% (.349, 22-63) on go-ahead shots in the final 30 seconds since 2003-04, a few points higher than the .313 Bryant shot over the course of his entire career when tied or down by one or two in the final 24 seconds, the key stat Abbott used for his piece.
But we still don't know what percentage Bryant shoots on go-ahead shots in the final 10 seconds, broken down by year and opponent.
And as long as that information is kept secret, Abbott and the Kobe-Haters will continue to score points whenever Bryant fails in the clutch.
And I'm sure that is fine by them.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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That's because the night before the man they love to hate, Kobe Bryant, found himself in a true clutch situation and failed to deliver a win for the Los Angeles Lakers.
I don't want to hear anything about what Bryant, or anyone else, does in a five-point game with five minutes to go.
That's not clutch to me.
But having the ball with a chance to take the lead in the final 10 seconds is, and that is the exact situation Bryant found himself in on Tuesday night.
He turned the ball over, and Los Angeles lost the game.
The next day, Abbott posted a Twitter message from someone giving him props for getting it right about Bryant in the clutch, someone who obviously paid no attention to the fact that Abbott's lengthy diatribe had absolutely zero information in it about how Bryant performs in the final 10 seconds in game-winning situations, one of the many objections I had to the piece when it first came out.
TNT brought us closer to the real truth about Kobe Bryant in crunch time when, before the Los Angeles game at Miami, they displayed a stat which showed Bryant was 35% (.349, 22-63) on go-ahead shots in the final 30 seconds since 2003-04, a few points higher than the .313 Bryant shot over the course of his entire career when tied or down by one or two in the final 24 seconds, the key stat Abbott used for his piece.
But we still don't know what percentage Bryant shoots on go-ahead shots in the final 10 seconds, broken down by year and opponent.
And as long as that information is kept secret, Abbott and the Kobe-Haters will continue to score points whenever Bryant fails in the clutch.
And I'm sure that is fine by them.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Saturday, April 2, 2011
Monta Ellis: Shining Star
I wrote an article on Monta Ellis and the Golden State Warriors and had it published on Yahoo!.
It goes over some of his electrifying moments from the season and talks about how he is one of the best players in the NBA and also touches on what could be a bright future for Golden State.
I'm looking for other outlets to bring more exposure to my feature stories in an attempt to one day get paid to do this.
Enjoy!
Note: The Ellis article was completed and submitted for publication on March 28, 2011.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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It goes over some of his electrifying moments from the season and talks about how he is one of the best players in the NBA and also touches on what could be a bright future for Golden State.
I'm looking for other outlets to bring more exposure to my feature stories in an attempt to one day get paid to do this.
Enjoy!
Note: The Ellis article was completed and submitted for publication on March 28, 2011.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Saturday, February 5, 2011
Dunks, Drive-Ins And Dives
At what point does Boston start worrying about its backup centers Jermaine and Shaquille O'Neal?
Rasheed Wallace played a huge role for this team in the playoffs last year, and these two guys were supposed to replace him.
Instead, we are left with Semih Erden.
The O'Neals are going to have to perform at the highest level, not only with their physical conditioning but with their knowledge and execution of the team concepts, with their teammates to win a championship.
It's looking more and more challenging as each day passes with each of them missing time due to various injuries.
The Milwaukee Bucks might be the most interesting story down the stretch.
They are 1.5 games out of eighth place in the East (5.5 games from sixth place) and are starting to get their players back.
They could have a full roster by the end of March, including Michael Redd and Drew Gooden.
I've been very critical of Al Jefferson, but I have to give him credit for some plays he made last night against Denver.
He made 1 ½ crucial stops as a help defender on Carmelo Anthony in the final 3:30 to help Utah get the victory.
Lack of help defense for years has been one of his biggest weaknesses.
It was a great job by Jefferson of playing tough defense when his team needed it most.
THE BLACK MAMBA
Henry Abbott released some numbers last week which, at least in his mind, finally proved once and for all that Kobe Bryant isn't as clutch as some think he is.
The funny thing is (I'll pretend I don't know why here), for some strange reason the numbers run all the way back to 1996, when Bryant was a rookie who barely played.
As I remember it, Bryant didn't become clutch until 2000, when he hit the game-winner to beat Phoenix in Game 2 of the first round of the playoffs and had that heroic Game 4 at Indiana in the Finals.
The raw numbers Abbott provides really don't mean much. In order to know what to make of this, we need to see the split statistics.
We need to know what Bryant shot in every game, every year against every opponent.
For all we know, Kobe Bryant could be shooting 80 percent against the best teams in the NBA and have all of his misses against the worst teams because they are harder to get motivated to play against.
And for all we know, he could be more clutch as his team advances further into the playoffs, peaking in the NBA Finals when he is at his absolute best.
But we don't know any of this because the splits aren't provided.
And we still don't know what Kobe Bryant shoots in game-winning situations in the last 10 seconds, with game-tying information removed from the data.
An article came out this season showing Carmelo Anthony was the best in game-winning or game-tying situations at .455, and Bryant had the most game-winners with 21, but Bryant's percentage wasn't provided.
Abbott wrote about Bryant's game-winners last season and gave some information which showed that Bryant has been awfully impressive recently. So it certainly appears that the numbers are trending in Bryant's direction.
But without the splits, there is just no way to tell one way or the other.
FOSTER KIDS
A funny thing happens when you predict a team to do well.
Because we all want to be right, you sort of adopt that team as your foster team and root for them to win; so they can make you look good.
And let me tell you, rooting for these teams has been such a gut-wrenching roller coaster of emotions that I don't know what to do with myself.
John Kuester fumbled the start of the season by not playing Greg Monroe as much as he should have, and at the start of the season Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince weren't playing with enough passion.
Minnesota had me on the high part of the roller coaster during the preseason. Then Martell Webster had to have back surgery and miss the start of the season.
Jonny Flynn's mid-November return from off-season surgery turned into mid-December.
In between, about every player on the roster had to miss time with injuries.
Darko Milicic sprained his ankle one game on the opening tip.
Anthony Tolliver is a 12th man who takes shot attempts like he's the franchise player. And Kurt Rambis keeps giving him playing time.
As soon as Los Angeles got cooking, Eric Gordon hurt his wrist and hasn't played since.
Jim O'Brien barely played Tyler Hansbrough and benched Paul George for almost two months, and TJ Ford has played a total of 10 minutes in the past nine games.
New coach Frank Vogel has Dahntay Jones higher in his rotation than James Posey, a highly-underrated basketball player with two championship rings, and has AJ Price higher in his rotation than TJ Ford.
Keith Smart just won't stop playing Vladimir Radmanovic at power forward.
Golden State assigned Jeremy Lin to the development league even though in his last action against actual NBA players, Golden State trailed 70-75 when he entered the game; and the score was tied 96-96 when he left it.
And even though Kevin Durant tried to score on him two times when Golden State played Oklahoma City and ended up with nothing but a turnover and a ball deflected out of bounds.
David Lee let the unstoppable Boris Diaw muscle him in the post, along with David West and just about everybody else.
The price we pay to be correct.
Like real foster kids, these teams drive you crazy because they are bad as hell. But you love them anyway because you adopted them, so they are yours.
GLAD TO BE WRONG
About the only time I enjoy being wrong is when a player or team turns out to be better than I thought they would.
And that is the case with the Toronto Raptors.
In my "Eastern Conference Preview" I suggested that their original, expansion roster might be more talented than their current one.
And while praising Jose Calderon in "The NBA's Best Point Guards," I called them a cast of "scrubs, losers, cast-offs and wannabes."
I got this one wrong.
I have an iron-clad rule when it comes to losing teams: at least be entertaining.
And Toronto is fun to watch.
DeMar DeRozan and Sonny Weems get after it on pretty much a nightly basis, and Andrea Bargnani can light it up at any given moment.
Because of injuries, they are not nearly as bad as their record indicates.
There is a future in Toronto.
Note: Al Jefferson was given a stop for drawing an offensive foul on Carmelo Anthony and ½ of a stop for his blocked shot on Anthony. Raja Bell got the other ½ of a stop for recovering the blocked shot.
For more information on how to figure stops and fractional stops, see my article on advanced defensive statistics.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Rasheed Wallace played a huge role for this team in the playoffs last year, and these two guys were supposed to replace him.
Instead, we are left with Semih Erden.
The O'Neals are going to have to perform at the highest level, not only with their physical conditioning but with their knowledge and execution of the team concepts, with their teammates to win a championship.
It's looking more and more challenging as each day passes with each of them missing time due to various injuries.
The Milwaukee Bucks might be the most interesting story down the stretch.
They are 1.5 games out of eighth place in the East (5.5 games from sixth place) and are starting to get their players back.
They could have a full roster by the end of March, including Michael Redd and Drew Gooden.
I've been very critical of Al Jefferson, but I have to give him credit for some plays he made last night against Denver.
He made 1 ½ crucial stops as a help defender on Carmelo Anthony in the final 3:30 to help Utah get the victory.
Lack of help defense for years has been one of his biggest weaknesses.
It was a great job by Jefferson of playing tough defense when his team needed it most.
THE BLACK MAMBA
Henry Abbott released some numbers last week which, at least in his mind, finally proved once and for all that Kobe Bryant isn't as clutch as some think he is.
The funny thing is (I'll pretend I don't know why here), for some strange reason the numbers run all the way back to 1996, when Bryant was a rookie who barely played.
As I remember it, Bryant didn't become clutch until 2000, when he hit the game-winner to beat Phoenix in Game 2 of the first round of the playoffs and had that heroic Game 4 at Indiana in the Finals.
The raw numbers Abbott provides really don't mean much. In order to know what to make of this, we need to see the split statistics.
We need to know what Bryant shot in every game, every year against every opponent.
For all we know, Kobe Bryant could be shooting 80 percent against the best teams in the NBA and have all of his misses against the worst teams because they are harder to get motivated to play against.
And for all we know, he could be more clutch as his team advances further into the playoffs, peaking in the NBA Finals when he is at his absolute best.
But we don't know any of this because the splits aren't provided.
And we still don't know what Kobe Bryant shoots in game-winning situations in the last 10 seconds, with game-tying information removed from the data.
An article came out this season showing Carmelo Anthony was the best in game-winning or game-tying situations at .455, and Bryant had the most game-winners with 21, but Bryant's percentage wasn't provided.
Abbott wrote about Bryant's game-winners last season and gave some information which showed that Bryant has been awfully impressive recently. So it certainly appears that the numbers are trending in Bryant's direction.
But without the splits, there is just no way to tell one way or the other.
FOSTER KIDS
A funny thing happens when you predict a team to do well.
Because we all want to be right, you sort of adopt that team as your foster team and root for them to win; so they can make you look good.
And let me tell you, rooting for these teams has been such a gut-wrenching roller coaster of emotions that I don't know what to do with myself.
John Kuester fumbled the start of the season by not playing Greg Monroe as much as he should have, and at the start of the season Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince weren't playing with enough passion.
Minnesota had me on the high part of the roller coaster during the preseason. Then Martell Webster had to have back surgery and miss the start of the season.
Jonny Flynn's mid-November return from off-season surgery turned into mid-December.
In between, about every player on the roster had to miss time with injuries.
Darko Milicic sprained his ankle one game on the opening tip.
Anthony Tolliver is a 12th man who takes shot attempts like he's the franchise player. And Kurt Rambis keeps giving him playing time.
As soon as Los Angeles got cooking, Eric Gordon hurt his wrist and hasn't played since.
Jim O'Brien barely played Tyler Hansbrough and benched Paul George for almost two months, and TJ Ford has played a total of 10 minutes in the past nine games.
New coach Frank Vogel has Dahntay Jones higher in his rotation than James Posey, a highly-underrated basketball player with two championship rings, and has AJ Price higher in his rotation than TJ Ford.
Keith Smart just won't stop playing Vladimir Radmanovic at power forward.
Golden State assigned Jeremy Lin to the development league even though in his last action against actual NBA players, Golden State trailed 70-75 when he entered the game; and the score was tied 96-96 when he left it.
And even though Kevin Durant tried to score on him two times when Golden State played Oklahoma City and ended up with nothing but a turnover and a ball deflected out of bounds.
David Lee let the unstoppable Boris Diaw muscle him in the post, along with David West and just about everybody else.
The price we pay to be correct.
Like real foster kids, these teams drive you crazy because they are bad as hell. But you love them anyway because you adopted them, so they are yours.
GLAD TO BE WRONG
About the only time I enjoy being wrong is when a player or team turns out to be better than I thought they would.
And that is the case with the Toronto Raptors.
In my "Eastern Conference Preview" I suggested that their original, expansion roster might be more talented than their current one.
And while praising Jose Calderon in "The NBA's Best Point Guards," I called them a cast of "scrubs, losers, cast-offs and wannabes."
I got this one wrong.
I have an iron-clad rule when it comes to losing teams: at least be entertaining.
And Toronto is fun to watch.
DeMar DeRozan and Sonny Weems get after it on pretty much a nightly basis, and Andrea Bargnani can light it up at any given moment.
Because of injuries, they are not nearly as bad as their record indicates.
There is a future in Toronto.
Note: Al Jefferson was given a stop for drawing an offensive foul on Carmelo Anthony and ½ of a stop for his blocked shot on Anthony. Raja Bell got the other ½ of a stop for recovering the blocked shot.
For more information on how to figure stops and fractional stops, see my article on advanced defensive statistics.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Saturday, December 4, 2010
Around The Association
This was LeBron Week, so I guess it's time to chime in and say something about the Miami Heat.
The media have swooped down on Miami like vultures on a fresh carcass and done everything from fire the coach to trade one of the team's key players.
It has become really cool all of a sudden, like wearing a leather jacket and smoking cigarettes in the '70s, to say something bad about LeBron James or the Miami Heat.
DON'T SPEAK TOO SOON
Part of this hysteria is really nothing but overreaction.
Dan Patrick had the greatest observation of this phenomenon. He often talks about how football fans and reporters overreact and think they are going to the Super Bowl or think the season is over after their team wins or loses the first game or two of the season.
It is unfair to judge Miami at this point due to the number of players who have not been available.
Mario Chalmers battled an ankle injury and didn't play 20 minutes in any game until November 27 and has done so only four times so far this season.
Miami is 3-1 in those games.
I saw Chalmers play for about five minutes in the second half against Washington, his second game playing at least 20 minutes. There was more ball movement for Miami in those five minutes than there had been all season combined without Chalmers on the floor.
The Heat also obviously misses Mike Miller.
My only criticism of Erik Spoelstra is the limited playing time he has given Joel Anthony. For what it's worth, Miami is 7-1 when Anthony plays at least 20 minutes.
It probably has something to do with the fact that he leads the team with 1.2 blocks per game despite averaging only 18 minutes.
To those shoveling dirt on Miami's grave, you may want to tone down the rhetoric, unless you want to look really stupid in a few weeks.
BEATING A DEAD HORSE
The impact that injuries are having on this season can't be emphasized enough.
Golden State is the latest team to be bitten by the injury bug.
Golden State started the season as one of the best teams in the league at 6-2. Then David Lee injured his elbow and missed eight games.
The Warriors lost one of Lee's backups (Brandan Wright) to a back injury two games after Lee went out. They were already playing without top pick Ekpe Udoh, who hasn't played all season due to a wrist injury.
The result has been an incredibly thin front line which has seen the team limp to a 2-9 record in its last 11 games (1-7 without Lee).
It got so bad that Keith Smart had to resort to starting Vladimir Radmanovic at power forward for a few games before he ditched the idea and went back to Dan Gadzuric.
Neither idea worked, and the team is now struggling to find itself.
THE DEFINITION OF CLUTCH
There has been a change in how clutch will be defined when games are analyzed.
Clutch will now be defined as the last two minutes of the game or overtime when no team is ahead by more than three points.
It was changed from the last five minutes because the five-minute mark just doesn't feel big enough or important enough when watching close games and because it is much easier to track the last two minutes of a game as compared to the last five minutes.
Players who make shots during this time will be judged based on whether their team is behind, tied or leading with the following priority:
(1.) Trailing
(2.) Tied
(3.) Leading
Priority will also be given based on the time the shot takes place, with the following order of importance:
(1.) 0-10 seconds
(2.) 10.1-24 seconds
(3.) 24.1-30 seconds
(4.) 30.1-1:00 minute
(5.) 1:01-1:30 seconds
(6.) 1:31-2:00 minutes
So a player who hits a go-ahead shot with two minutes left won't be considered as clutch as a player who hits one with 10 seconds remaining.
Game-winners will be defined as shots with 10 seconds or less in the fourth quarter or overtime which give a team the lead for good. This matches how Elias Sports Bureau defines and tracks game-winners.
Game-winning shots will be prioritized in the following order:
(1.) Lead-changing game-winners
(2.) Game-winners
(3.) Game-clinchers
Game-clinchers or icers or daggers aren't really game-winners because they come when the team is already ahead. But something had to be created for players who put games away like this.
Lead-changing game-winners are defined as the most clutch due to the player having so much on the line.
For a player who misses a shot with the score tied, the worst which can happen is that the game goes into overtime.
But a player who misses a shot when his team is behind loses the game. He then has to answer all of the questions about what happened and live for a minimum of 24 hours with the fact that he let his team down.
It is such a pressurized situation that players who step up to the challenge deserve more credit when they pull it off.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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The media have swooped down on Miami like vultures on a fresh carcass and done everything from fire the coach to trade one of the team's key players.
It has become really cool all of a sudden, like wearing a leather jacket and smoking cigarettes in the '70s, to say something bad about LeBron James or the Miami Heat.
DON'T SPEAK TOO SOON
Part of this hysteria is really nothing but overreaction.
Dan Patrick had the greatest observation of this phenomenon. He often talks about how football fans and reporters overreact and think they are going to the Super Bowl or think the season is over after their team wins or loses the first game or two of the season.
It is unfair to judge Miami at this point due to the number of players who have not been available.
Mario Chalmers battled an ankle injury and didn't play 20 minutes in any game until November 27 and has done so only four times so far this season.
Miami is 3-1 in those games.
I saw Chalmers play for about five minutes in the second half against Washington, his second game playing at least 20 minutes. There was more ball movement for Miami in those five minutes than there had been all season combined without Chalmers on the floor.
The Heat also obviously misses Mike Miller.
My only criticism of Erik Spoelstra is the limited playing time he has given Joel Anthony. For what it's worth, Miami is 7-1 when Anthony plays at least 20 minutes.
It probably has something to do with the fact that he leads the team with 1.2 blocks per game despite averaging only 18 minutes.
To those shoveling dirt on Miami's grave, you may want to tone down the rhetoric, unless you want to look really stupid in a few weeks.
BEATING A DEAD HORSE
The impact that injuries are having on this season can't be emphasized enough.
Golden State is the latest team to be bitten by the injury bug.
Golden State started the season as one of the best teams in the league at 6-2. Then David Lee injured his elbow and missed eight games.
The Warriors lost one of Lee's backups (Brandan Wright) to a back injury two games after Lee went out. They were already playing without top pick Ekpe Udoh, who hasn't played all season due to a wrist injury.
The result has been an incredibly thin front line which has seen the team limp to a 2-9 record in its last 11 games (1-7 without Lee).
It got so bad that Keith Smart had to resort to starting Vladimir Radmanovic at power forward for a few games before he ditched the idea and went back to Dan Gadzuric.
Neither idea worked, and the team is now struggling to find itself.
THE DEFINITION OF CLUTCH
There has been a change in how clutch will be defined when games are analyzed.
Clutch will now be defined as the last two minutes of the game or overtime when no team is ahead by more than three points.
It was changed from the last five minutes because the five-minute mark just doesn't feel big enough or important enough when watching close games and because it is much easier to track the last two minutes of a game as compared to the last five minutes.
Players who make shots during this time will be judged based on whether their team is behind, tied or leading with the following priority:
(1.) Trailing
(2.) Tied
(3.) Leading
Priority will also be given based on the time the shot takes place, with the following order of importance:
(1.) 0-10 seconds
(2.) 10.1-24 seconds
(3.) 24.1-30 seconds
(4.) 30.1-1:00 minute
(5.) 1:01-1:30 seconds
(6.) 1:31-2:00 minutes
So a player who hits a go-ahead shot with two minutes left won't be considered as clutch as a player who hits one with 10 seconds remaining.
Game-winners will be defined as shots with 10 seconds or less in the fourth quarter or overtime which give a team the lead for good. This matches how Elias Sports Bureau defines and tracks game-winners.
Game-winning shots will be prioritized in the following order:
(1.) Lead-changing game-winners
(2.) Game-winners
(3.) Game-clinchers
Game-clinchers or icers or daggers aren't really game-winners because they come when the team is already ahead. But something had to be created for players who put games away like this.
Lead-changing game-winners are defined as the most clutch due to the player having so much on the line.
For a player who misses a shot with the score tied, the worst which can happen is that the game goes into overtime.
But a player who misses a shot when his team is behind loses the game. He then has to answer all of the questions about what happened and live for a minimum of 24 hours with the fact that he let his team down.
It is such a pressurized situation that players who step up to the challenge deserve more credit when they pull it off.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Wall, Johnson, Babbitt, Booker And Whiteside Leave Las Vegas
The final members of the Spectacular Seven completed summer league play on Sunday.
John Wall, Wesley Johnson, Luke Babbitt, Trevor Booker and Hassan Whiteside all competed in the Las Vegas Summer League.
They too had their ups and downs, but like Evan Turner, Gordon Hayward and Paul George, there wasn't anything which would cause any concern by the teams which drafted them.
Number one overall pick John Wall probably had the most spectacular performance of anybody.
He went off in his very first outing, putting up 24 points, 8 assists, 2 steals and 1 block, shooting 7-15 from the field and going 10-11 from the foul line. His shooting percentage fell to .377 through four games, but he attempted an astounding 47 free throws and made 41 (.872).
Like other players in summer league, Wall had a problem keeping his turnovers down. He had two 8-turnover games and averaged 5.2 turnovers overall.
The best thing Wall has going for him is Sam Cassell, who could be seen talking to Wall from time to time. Wall even did Cassell's patented pull-up jumper at one point and knocked down a shot just to the side of the foul line.
The Wizards went 4-0 in his games, and Wall concluded by scoring 31 points in his finale. He averaged a sizzling 23.5 points, 4 rebounds, 7.8 assists and 2.5 steals and sat out the final game.
Wesley Johnson of the Timberwolves had the most disappointing summer league of any player, not because of his play but because he didn't play. The Matrix: Reloaded pulled a hamstring in his first game and didn't play again after that.
He shot 4-7 and scored 10 points 22 minutes and recorded one block. Even though his playing time was severely limited, it would have been nice to see him get at least one defensive rebound or an assist.
In an interview with a local paper where Johnson talked about lots of things, it was interesting to read how his favorite cartoon growing up was Tom & Jerry and how he still regrets losing a game all the way back in high school.
This is a great article for those who want to get to know Wesley Johnson.
Portland Trail Blazer Luke Babbitt had an interesting summer league. He came out on fire in his first game and lit up the scoreboard for 13 points in no time flat and was also showing a well-rounded game.
After that he struggled for a few games before finding himself in the fifth and final outing. This article from The Oregonian almost perfectly summarizes Babbitt's performance through the first four games.
Babbitt went off in his final game, scoring 22 points on great shooting to go along with 3 assists, 4 steals and 1 block in a Portland win over Chicago.
There was one troubling sign for Babbitt though.
Trailing by two points against the Clippers, Babbitt had a chance to tie the game with 10.5 seconds left. All he had to do was make two free throws. He missed the first.
After making the second free throw, Babbitt got another opportunity when Portland got the ball back on a turnover.
He got a clutch offensive rebound with about 3 seconds to play but missed a shot from about eight feet away which would have won the game.
Success in sports is all about performing in the clutch, and the Trail Blazers should be concerned about Luke Babbitt missing two of three highly-makeable shots when it mattered most.
This is even more disturbing when you consider that Babbitt shot .917 from the foul line last year in college and .891 in two seasons.
For those who think too much is being made of clutch performance in a summer league game, the name Dwyane Wade should be immediately brought to the forefront.
When Dwyane Wade was a rookie in 2003, long before he was a star, back when he was merely some guy who got drafted after LeBron and Carmelo, he hit a game-winner over LeBron James in summer league in Orlando.
He has been doing it ever since--video 1, video 2.
So while it is not time to panic, it is something the Trail Blazers should be concerned about because winning and losing, especially in the playoffs, frequently comes down to plays like those Babbitt didn't make against the Clippers.
The Wizards' Trevor Booker spent summer league in the shadow of teammates John Wall and JaVale McGee.
Booker got a chance to show what he can do only in the final game when the two players didn't play. With Wall and McGee out of the way, Booker put up respectable numbers in a loss against the Knicks.
He averaged 1.4 steals and 1 block in five games and shot over 50 percent from the field.
Hassan Whiteside of the Sacramento Kings left Las Vegas with heavier pockets than he came with.
The Kings must have liked what they saw out of Whiteside because they signed the second-round pick to a four-year deal worth $3.8 million.
On the court, Whiteside talked about some of his adjustments in going from Marshall to the NBA.
He said he has to get used to not being in the paint and mentioned how teams are designing plays to put him in pick-and-rolls to keep him away from the basket to minimize his shot blocking.
The fact that opposing teams already are forced into designing game plans to adjust for Whiteside's dominant shot-blocking ability is a good thing, and the fact that he recognizes what they are doing is an even better one.
What teams did made perfect sense and was quite necessary considering that Whiteside came out in his first game and had 5 blocks, the same number he averaged in college.
The most he had in any game after that was 3. He averaged 2.8.
Like the others, Whiteside has to continue to work on his game and get better in all aspects. We'll see how things develop as the off-season moves along.
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John Wall, Wesley Johnson, Luke Babbitt, Trevor Booker and Hassan Whiteside all competed in the Las Vegas Summer League.
They too had their ups and downs, but like Evan Turner, Gordon Hayward and Paul George, there wasn't anything which would cause any concern by the teams which drafted them.
Number one overall pick John Wall probably had the most spectacular performance of anybody.
He went off in his very first outing, putting up 24 points, 8 assists, 2 steals and 1 block, shooting 7-15 from the field and going 10-11 from the foul line. His shooting percentage fell to .377 through four games, but he attempted an astounding 47 free throws and made 41 (.872).
Like other players in summer league, Wall had a problem keeping his turnovers down. He had two 8-turnover games and averaged 5.2 turnovers overall.
The best thing Wall has going for him is Sam Cassell, who could be seen talking to Wall from time to time. Wall even did Cassell's patented pull-up jumper at one point and knocked down a shot just to the side of the foul line.
The Wizards went 4-0 in his games, and Wall concluded by scoring 31 points in his finale. He averaged a sizzling 23.5 points, 4 rebounds, 7.8 assists and 2.5 steals and sat out the final game.
Wesley Johnson of the Timberwolves had the most disappointing summer league of any player, not because of his play but because he didn't play. The Matrix: Reloaded pulled a hamstring in his first game and didn't play again after that.
He shot 4-7 and scored 10 points 22 minutes and recorded one block. Even though his playing time was severely limited, it would have been nice to see him get at least one defensive rebound or an assist.
In an interview with a local paper where Johnson talked about lots of things, it was interesting to read how his favorite cartoon growing up was Tom & Jerry and how he still regrets losing a game all the way back in high school.
This is a great article for those who want to get to know Wesley Johnson.
Portland Trail Blazer Luke Babbitt had an interesting summer league. He came out on fire in his first game and lit up the scoreboard for 13 points in no time flat and was also showing a well-rounded game.
After that he struggled for a few games before finding himself in the fifth and final outing. This article from The Oregonian almost perfectly summarizes Babbitt's performance through the first four games.
Babbitt went off in his final game, scoring 22 points on great shooting to go along with 3 assists, 4 steals and 1 block in a Portland win over Chicago.
There was one troubling sign for Babbitt though.
Trailing by two points against the Clippers, Babbitt had a chance to tie the game with 10.5 seconds left. All he had to do was make two free throws. He missed the first.
After making the second free throw, Babbitt got another opportunity when Portland got the ball back on a turnover.
He got a clutch offensive rebound with about 3 seconds to play but missed a shot from about eight feet away which would have won the game.
Success in sports is all about performing in the clutch, and the Trail Blazers should be concerned about Luke Babbitt missing two of three highly-makeable shots when it mattered most.
This is even more disturbing when you consider that Babbitt shot .917 from the foul line last year in college and .891 in two seasons.
For those who think too much is being made of clutch performance in a summer league game, the name Dwyane Wade should be immediately brought to the forefront.
When Dwyane Wade was a rookie in 2003, long before he was a star, back when he was merely some guy who got drafted after LeBron and Carmelo, he hit a game-winner over LeBron James in summer league in Orlando.
He has been doing it ever since--video 1, video 2.
So while it is not time to panic, it is something the Trail Blazers should be concerned about because winning and losing, especially in the playoffs, frequently comes down to plays like those Babbitt didn't make against the Clippers.
The Wizards' Trevor Booker spent summer league in the shadow of teammates John Wall and JaVale McGee.
Booker got a chance to show what he can do only in the final game when the two players didn't play. With Wall and McGee out of the way, Booker put up respectable numbers in a loss against the Knicks.
He averaged 1.4 steals and 1 block in five games and shot over 50 percent from the field.
Hassan Whiteside of the Sacramento Kings left Las Vegas with heavier pockets than he came with.
The Kings must have liked what they saw out of Whiteside because they signed the second-round pick to a four-year deal worth $3.8 million.
On the court, Whiteside talked about some of his adjustments in going from Marshall to the NBA.
He said he has to get used to not being in the paint and mentioned how teams are designing plays to put him in pick-and-rolls to keep him away from the basket to minimize his shot blocking.
The fact that opposing teams already are forced into designing game plans to adjust for Whiteside's dominant shot-blocking ability is a good thing, and the fact that he recognizes what they are doing is an even better one.
What teams did made perfect sense and was quite necessary considering that Whiteside came out in his first game and had 5 blocks, the same number he averaged in college.
The most he had in any game after that was 3. He averaged 2.8.
Like the others, Whiteside has to continue to work on his game and get better in all aspects. We'll see how things develop as the off-season moves along.
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