I didn't cover any other stories during the Finals because both teams worked so hard and accomplished so much to get there that I felt they deserved my undivided attention.
So here are some of the things we missed.
Shaquille O'Neal retired. I won't be writing much about it.
When someone retires they deserve to have their stories written by their most adoring fans, and while I admire and respect O'Neal, I am not one of them.
I am looking for a good highlight reel of him, and when I find it I'll put it on Legends Cinema for all to enjoy.
Los Angeles hired Mike Brown to replace Phil Jackson, and Golden State hired Mark Jackson to succeed Keith Smart.
I don't like either hire.
I judge coaches by one standard: Will he lead his team to a championship?
And Mike Brown did enough in Cleveland to show that he is not that guy. As for Mark Jackson, how anyone could listen to him call games and think he would be a good coach is quite unbelievable.
People say you can't listen to an announcer and learn anything about how he will coach.
I fully disagree.
Listening to Jackson call games the past couple of years has been like a two-year job interview, and I heard more than enough to know he needs to stay in broadcasting.
For example, during the Finals Jackson talked about how much he liked Miami's lineup with LeBron James at power forward.
May as well have been Don Nelson or Keith Smart in the booth.
With James playing power forward, exactly who's going to defend the paint? LeBron James? The guy who averaged .6 blocks per game this season?
I don't think so!
Mark Jackson's endorsement of small ball is one of the many red flags which popped up during his broadcasts.
Brown and Jackson deserve the opportunity to prove themselves with their new teams, so no conclusions will be drawn until some games are played.
But as for now both hires look like ginormous mistakes.
I don't do trade rumors, but I do want to give some general thoughts on the Monta Ellis for Andre Iguodala trade speculation.
Here's what teams like Golden State don't understand: It's not about Stephen Curry or Monta Ellis, and it's not about Monta Ellis or Andre Iguodala; it's about Curry, Ellis and Iguodala, and Dwight Howard too if they can get him.
When Golden State finally figures this out, and I hope it's sooner rather than later, they'll be ready to run with the big dogs.
Finally, Houston hired Kevin McHale as their new coach.
You know what that means ... they're about to trade Yao Ming to Boston for Al Jefferson (LOL!).
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Showing posts with label Golden State Warriors. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Golden State Warriors. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
Sunday, May 22, 2011
Encore: Jay-Z, Monta Ellis And Stephen Curry
Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry were fortunate enough to have mixes of them made to two different Jay-Z songs.
The Curry mix is to "Numb/Encore" with Linkin Park.
And the Ellis mix is to "Run This Town" with Rihanna, Kanye West and Drake.
The Ellis mix is missing some plays.
But I guess when you make a highlight play every other game there are bound to be some things left off. These videos can only be so long.
As far as Curry's, missing some plays but there isn't a complaint in the world.
It's about perfect.
I'm still looking for a Monta Ellis one as good as that.
"Numb/Encore" contains explicit lyrics.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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The Curry mix is to "Numb/Encore" with Linkin Park.
And the Ellis mix is to "Run This Town" with Rihanna, Kanye West and Drake.
The Ellis mix is missing some plays.
But I guess when you make a highlight play every other game there are bound to be some things left off. These videos can only be so long.
As far as Curry's, missing some plays but there isn't a complaint in the world.
It's about perfect.
I'm still looking for a Monta Ellis one as good as that.
"Numb/Encore" contains explicit lyrics.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Monday, May 16, 2011
Coaching Experience Vastly Overrated
When I read that Jerry Sloan and Jeff Van Gundy declined interviews to coach the Golden State Warriors, I can't help but think they did Golden State a favor.
And to me Mike Brown is little more than Keith Smart with glasses.
Sloan had ample opportunity to win a championship in Utah and never got it done. And Van Gundy had his chances in New York and Houston and never brought home any championship hardware either.
And that is where Golden State got lucky because history tells us that a coach who doesn't win it all on his first job will probably never do it on his second job or later.
Going all the way back to the early days of the NBA, first-time coaches rule.
John Kundla, who coached the first dynasty in NBA history, had no head-coaching experience when he took over the Minneapolis Lakers in 1948.
The same can be said for Phil Jackson and Pat Riley.
Experience wasn't necessary when they took over Chicago and Los Angeles and led them to 10 championships.
With the number of first-hire championships in parentheses, here is the list of first-time coaches who won multiple titles on their first job: John Kundla (4), Bill Russell (2), Tommy Heinsohn (2), Pat Riley (4), Phil Jackson (6), Rudy Tomjanovich (2), Gregg Popovich (4).
Only 22 titles in NBA history have been won by coaches on their second hire or later after they didn't win one the first time around, nine of those by Red Auerbach.
You have to go all the way back to Chuck Daly in 1990 to find a coach who won more than one title after failing to win one on his first job, although Larry Brown and Doc Rivers came close, losing Game 7s on the road in 2005 and 2010.
Multiple championship winners after failing to win one on the first hire are as follows: Red Auerbach (9), Red Holzman (2), KC Jones (2), Chuck Daly (2).
Bill Sharman, Jack Ramsay, Dick Motta, Lenny Wilkens, Bill Fitch, Larry Brown and Doc Rivers all won one championship on their second hire or later.
First-time coaches who won one title the first time include Les Harrison, Al Cervi, George Senesky, Alex Hannum, Larry Costello, Al Attles, Paul Westhead and Billy Cunningham.
All other championships were won by coaches who won at least one on their first hire and others on their second or later.
Put it all together and 39 of the 61 NBA titles (63.9%) have been won by the coaches who started by winning one on their first job after being hired with no head-coaching experience in the NBA.
The same model holds true in the NFL.
Paul Brown, Weeb Ewbank, Vince Lombardi, Chuck Noll, Tom Landry, Don Shula, John Madden, Tom Flores, Bill Walsh, Joe Gibbs, Bill Parcells, Mike Ditka, Jimmy Johnson and George Seifert (pretty much all of the greatest coaches in NFL history) had never been head coaches in the NFL but went on to win championships during their first hires.
Mike Shanahan and Bill Belichick are the only coaches to win multiple Super Bowls after failing to win one with their first team.
This isn't to say that no experienced coach should ever be hired again, only that inexperienced ones shouldn't be overlooked simply because they don't have the experience.
Inexperienced coaches who are in over their heads can be public relations nightmares, so teams tend to hire experience out of "CYA" more than anything else.
But we have more than a half century of history in two different sports which tells us that first-time coaches are the best coaches, particularly for teams which want to win multiple championships.
Jerry Sloan and Jeff Van Gundy don't want to coach Golden State?
The Bay Area should be so lucky.
Note: NBA coaching data is from Basketball Reference.com. NFL coaching data is from Pro Football Reference.com. Here is a quick reference to NBA champion coaches.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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And to me Mike Brown is little more than Keith Smart with glasses.
Sloan had ample opportunity to win a championship in Utah and never got it done. And Van Gundy had his chances in New York and Houston and never brought home any championship hardware either.
And that is where Golden State got lucky because history tells us that a coach who doesn't win it all on his first job will probably never do it on his second job or later.
Going all the way back to the early days of the NBA, first-time coaches rule.
John Kundla, who coached the first dynasty in NBA history, had no head-coaching experience when he took over the Minneapolis Lakers in 1948.
The same can be said for Phil Jackson and Pat Riley.
Experience wasn't necessary when they took over Chicago and Los Angeles and led them to 10 championships.
With the number of first-hire championships in parentheses, here is the list of first-time coaches who won multiple titles on their first job: John Kundla (4), Bill Russell (2), Tommy Heinsohn (2), Pat Riley (4), Phil Jackson (6), Rudy Tomjanovich (2), Gregg Popovich (4).
Only 22 titles in NBA history have been won by coaches on their second hire or later after they didn't win one the first time around, nine of those by Red Auerbach.
You have to go all the way back to Chuck Daly in 1990 to find a coach who won more than one title after failing to win one on his first job, although Larry Brown and Doc Rivers came close, losing Game 7s on the road in 2005 and 2010.
Multiple championship winners after failing to win one on the first hire are as follows: Red Auerbach (9), Red Holzman (2), KC Jones (2), Chuck Daly (2).
Bill Sharman, Jack Ramsay, Dick Motta, Lenny Wilkens, Bill Fitch, Larry Brown and Doc Rivers all won one championship on their second hire or later.
First-time coaches who won one title the first time include Les Harrison, Al Cervi, George Senesky, Alex Hannum, Larry Costello, Al Attles, Paul Westhead and Billy Cunningham.
All other championships were won by coaches who won at least one on their first hire and others on their second or later.
Put it all together and 39 of the 61 NBA titles (63.9%) have been won by the coaches who started by winning one on their first job after being hired with no head-coaching experience in the NBA.
The same model holds true in the NFL.
Paul Brown, Weeb Ewbank, Vince Lombardi, Chuck Noll, Tom Landry, Don Shula, John Madden, Tom Flores, Bill Walsh, Joe Gibbs, Bill Parcells, Mike Ditka, Jimmy Johnson and George Seifert (pretty much all of the greatest coaches in NFL history) had never been head coaches in the NFL but went on to win championships during their first hires.
Mike Shanahan and Bill Belichick are the only coaches to win multiple Super Bowls after failing to win one with their first team.
This isn't to say that no experienced coach should ever be hired again, only that inexperienced ones shouldn't be overlooked simply because they don't have the experience.
Inexperienced coaches who are in over their heads can be public relations nightmares, so teams tend to hire experience out of "CYA" more than anything else.
But we have more than a half century of history in two different sports which tells us that first-time coaches are the best coaches, particularly for teams which want to win multiple championships.
Jerry Sloan and Jeff Van Gundy don't want to coach Golden State?
The Bay Area should be so lucky.
Note: NBA coaching data is from Basketball Reference.com. NFL coaching data is from Pro Football Reference.com. Here is a quick reference to NBA champion coaches.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Saturday, April 23, 2011
NBA Picks: Listen And Learn
Boy, did I get burned on some of my picks this year!
It was excruciating to watch as one team after another that I picked to do well performed below expectations.
At the same time, it was a valuable learning experience, one which I would like to pass along to all interested parties.
The most valuable lesson of all: consider the coach in your team evaluation!
My old method of analyzing a team was to look at the talent on the roster, see how much is there and how well it fits into traditional roles and positions and estimate a win total, with little or no regard for who the coach was.
But it's the coach who decides that Anthony Randolph doesn't deserve any playing time, who thinks Anthony Tolliver should be his first big man off the bench and who doesn't play Jeff Teague and goes with a seven-man rotation on the second night of a back-to-back.
The coach leads the team, evaluates the roster, sets the rotation, designs the plays, orchestrates the defense, hands out minutes, calls the timeouts, sets the strategies, approves the trades, guides the film sessions and everything else.
In short, the coach is everything!
You can have the most talented roster in the world and have them all fit perfectly together, but if the coach doesn't put the right players in the game at the right times, with a game-plan and a philosophy which produces wins, then it isn't worth a wooden nickel.
Whenever I write that certain things will happen, I feel a responsibility to explain things when they don't.
Even though all of the teams won more games than they did the year before, my expectations were much higher; so this is a look at the teams and what happened during the season to cause them to lose more games than what the talent on their rosters said they should have, with win improvement over the prior season in parentheses.
DETROIT PISTONS (+3)
I take full responsibility for this one.
I knew this pick was in trouble from the moment I saw Detroit play its first preseason game against Miami and knew it minutes into the game.
The season-ending injury to Jonas Jerebko didn't help a team so thin up front.
But the bigger problems were a lack of early-season passion from Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince and disastrous coaching by John Kuester.
I had to dedicate two sections to Greg Monroe and his limited playing time by the end of November, and Kuester's rotation only got more puzzling from there, with players moving in and out of the lineup for no apparent reason even when they were playing well.
They gave New Jersey the first game of the season with a fourth-quarter meltdown and blew a 21-point lead to Chicago two games later.
A season which could have and should have started 2-1, maybe 3-0, started 0-3; and that pretty much set the tone for the season.
I could have never known that Hamilton and Prince would lie down and not compete like they did, but the failure evaluate John Kuester was all my fault.
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (+2)
Jonny Flynn's injury was the main factor in Minnesota's poor season.
Luke Ridnour doesn't have the athleticism to consistently beat his man off the dribble on offense or keep his man in front of him on defense.
This created a domino effect which hurt Minnesota on both sides of the ball.
A healthy Jonny Flynn, not the one we saw this season, gives Minnesota an advantage on almost every offensive possession because someone would be open on almost every play, either Flynn after he beats his man off the dribble or a teammate after a defender comes over to help after Flynn has gotten by his man.
That would then make the team virtually unstoppable with Flynn's court vision and passing ability and all of the weapons that they have.
It was a vision which never materialized due to Flynn being less than 100 percent.
Minnesota battled crucial injuries all season long, but once the team got relatively healthy, the real culprit came to light: Kurt Rambis.
There isn't nearly enough room in this section to fully detail all of the mistakes Kurt Rambis made this season, so I'll stick to one or two key ones and move on.
Rambis's offense is built to the weaknesses and not the strengths of his players.
Rambis has an offense which requires big men to handle and make decisions with the basketball and doesn't allow the point guard to freelance and improvise very much.
The problem is Darko Milicic, Kevin Love and Michael Beasley aren't very good at making decisions with the basketball; and freelancing and improvising are two of the things Flynn and Ridnour do best.
Rambis's rotation made you wonder what he was thinking, and his refusal to keep a shot-blocker on the floor at all times hurt Minnesota's defense as much as fouls and the turnovers caused by his sophisticated offense.
It wouldn't be fair to say Rambis will never succeed as a coach in the NBA, but he has a very long way to go.
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (+3)
Los Angeles is another team which got derailed by injuries.
Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman and Randy Foye all missed significant time during the season.
Even with all of the injuries, it could still be said that Los Angeles played above expectations. But, in true Hollywood fashion, they did it in a way which wasn't expected.
In all of my writings, not one time did I mention the name DeAndre Jordan.
But his improvement and interior defense were huge factors in the team's turnaround.
I did evaluate Vinny Del Negro, and, appropriately, he was the only coach who didn't let me down, until they traded Baron Davis.
INDIANA PACERS (+5)
Jim O'Brien made me regret that I ever thought he was even a decent coach.
From benching TJ Ford, Paul George and Tyler Hansbrough to playing Danny Granger at power forward, O'Brien made more embarrassing moves than I care to remember.
He was rightfully fired during the season and replaced by Frank Vogel.
Vogel corrected every mistake except the TJ Ford one, but I've covered that so completely that there is no need to detail it any further here.
No injuries, just one poor coaching move after another continues to hurt this team.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (+10)
There is a noticeable theme developing here: injuries and bad coaching.
And Golden State had a little too much of both this season.
There were times this year when Keith Smart had me so irate that I wished Golden State would hire me for an hour, so I could fire him myself!
He played Monta Ellis way too many minutes, had too many Don Nelson, small-ball tendencies; failed to utilize a bench which was good enough to be utilized and was highly unfair to rookies Jeremy Lin and Ekpe Udoh.
It took Smart until the last few games of the season to stop playing Vladimir Radmanovic off the bench at power forward and play Lou Amundson there instead, but he should have realized the need to do that after the game against Utah at the end of January, at the latest.
Non-starters Reggie Williams, Lin, Udoh and Amundson can all play; so Smart's limited confidence in them makes you question his ability to evaluate talent and his commitment to the winning philosophy of using a strong bench to keep the starters fresh.
And Lin and Udoh were treated like unwanted step-children, yanked from games for the slightest of errors while the veterans could make multiple mistakes without consequence.
For Lin, the benching might last weeks and include a trip to the development league.
Smart made almost as many mistakes as Kurt Rambis and most definitely held Golden State back this year.
And he most definitely makes you question whether he can win consistently in the NBA.
You live, and you learn.
And going into next season, you can bet that the coaches will be analyzed as thoroughly and completely as the rosters and the individual matchups on the court.
It is a process I already started going into this year's playoffs.
And if you are wise, you will do the same thing too.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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It was excruciating to watch as one team after another that I picked to do well performed below expectations.
At the same time, it was a valuable learning experience, one which I would like to pass along to all interested parties.
The most valuable lesson of all: consider the coach in your team evaluation!
My old method of analyzing a team was to look at the talent on the roster, see how much is there and how well it fits into traditional roles and positions and estimate a win total, with little or no regard for who the coach was.
But it's the coach who decides that Anthony Randolph doesn't deserve any playing time, who thinks Anthony Tolliver should be his first big man off the bench and who doesn't play Jeff Teague and goes with a seven-man rotation on the second night of a back-to-back.
The coach leads the team, evaluates the roster, sets the rotation, designs the plays, orchestrates the defense, hands out minutes, calls the timeouts, sets the strategies, approves the trades, guides the film sessions and everything else.
In short, the coach is everything!
You can have the most talented roster in the world and have them all fit perfectly together, but if the coach doesn't put the right players in the game at the right times, with a game-plan and a philosophy which produces wins, then it isn't worth a wooden nickel.
Whenever I write that certain things will happen, I feel a responsibility to explain things when they don't.
Even though all of the teams won more games than they did the year before, my expectations were much higher; so this is a look at the teams and what happened during the season to cause them to lose more games than what the talent on their rosters said they should have, with win improvement over the prior season in parentheses.
DETROIT PISTONS (+3)
I take full responsibility for this one.
I knew this pick was in trouble from the moment I saw Detroit play its first preseason game against Miami and knew it minutes into the game.
The season-ending injury to Jonas Jerebko didn't help a team so thin up front.
But the bigger problems were a lack of early-season passion from Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince and disastrous coaching by John Kuester.
I had to dedicate two sections to Greg Monroe and his limited playing time by the end of November, and Kuester's rotation only got more puzzling from there, with players moving in and out of the lineup for no apparent reason even when they were playing well.
They gave New Jersey the first game of the season with a fourth-quarter meltdown and blew a 21-point lead to Chicago two games later.
A season which could have and should have started 2-1, maybe 3-0, started 0-3; and that pretty much set the tone for the season.
I could have never known that Hamilton and Prince would lie down and not compete like they did, but the failure evaluate John Kuester was all my fault.
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (+2)
Jonny Flynn's injury was the main factor in Minnesota's poor season.
Luke Ridnour doesn't have the athleticism to consistently beat his man off the dribble on offense or keep his man in front of him on defense.
This created a domino effect which hurt Minnesota on both sides of the ball.
A healthy Jonny Flynn, not the one we saw this season, gives Minnesota an advantage on almost every offensive possession because someone would be open on almost every play, either Flynn after he beats his man off the dribble or a teammate after a defender comes over to help after Flynn has gotten by his man.
That would then make the team virtually unstoppable with Flynn's court vision and passing ability and all of the weapons that they have.
It was a vision which never materialized due to Flynn being less than 100 percent.
Minnesota battled crucial injuries all season long, but once the team got relatively healthy, the real culprit came to light: Kurt Rambis.
There isn't nearly enough room in this section to fully detail all of the mistakes Kurt Rambis made this season, so I'll stick to one or two key ones and move on.
Rambis's offense is built to the weaknesses and not the strengths of his players.
Rambis has an offense which requires big men to handle and make decisions with the basketball and doesn't allow the point guard to freelance and improvise very much.
The problem is Darko Milicic, Kevin Love and Michael Beasley aren't very good at making decisions with the basketball; and freelancing and improvising are two of the things Flynn and Ridnour do best.
Rambis's rotation made you wonder what he was thinking, and his refusal to keep a shot-blocker on the floor at all times hurt Minnesota's defense as much as fouls and the turnovers caused by his sophisticated offense.
It wouldn't be fair to say Rambis will never succeed as a coach in the NBA, but he has a very long way to go.
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (+3)
Los Angeles is another team which got derailed by injuries.
Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman and Randy Foye all missed significant time during the season.
Even with all of the injuries, it could still be said that Los Angeles played above expectations. But, in true Hollywood fashion, they did it in a way which wasn't expected.
In all of my writings, not one time did I mention the name DeAndre Jordan.
But his improvement and interior defense were huge factors in the team's turnaround.
I did evaluate Vinny Del Negro, and, appropriately, he was the only coach who didn't let me down, until they traded Baron Davis.
INDIANA PACERS (+5)
Jim O'Brien made me regret that I ever thought he was even a decent coach.
From benching TJ Ford, Paul George and Tyler Hansbrough to playing Danny Granger at power forward, O'Brien made more embarrassing moves than I care to remember.
He was rightfully fired during the season and replaced by Frank Vogel.
Vogel corrected every mistake except the TJ Ford one, but I've covered that so completely that there is no need to detail it any further here.
No injuries, just one poor coaching move after another continues to hurt this team.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (+10)
There is a noticeable theme developing here: injuries and bad coaching.
And Golden State had a little too much of both this season.
There were times this year when Keith Smart had me so irate that I wished Golden State would hire me for an hour, so I could fire him myself!
He played Monta Ellis way too many minutes, had too many Don Nelson, small-ball tendencies; failed to utilize a bench which was good enough to be utilized and was highly unfair to rookies Jeremy Lin and Ekpe Udoh.
It took Smart until the last few games of the season to stop playing Vladimir Radmanovic off the bench at power forward and play Lou Amundson there instead, but he should have realized the need to do that after the game against Utah at the end of January, at the latest.
Non-starters Reggie Williams, Lin, Udoh and Amundson can all play; so Smart's limited confidence in them makes you question his ability to evaluate talent and his commitment to the winning philosophy of using a strong bench to keep the starters fresh.
And Lin and Udoh were treated like unwanted step-children, yanked from games for the slightest of errors while the veterans could make multiple mistakes without consequence.
For Lin, the benching might last weeks and include a trip to the development league.
Smart made almost as many mistakes as Kurt Rambis and most definitely held Golden State back this year.
And he most definitely makes you question whether he can win consistently in the NBA.
You live, and you learn.
And going into next season, you can bet that the coaches will be analyzed as thoroughly and completely as the rosters and the individual matchups on the court.
It is a process I already started going into this year's playoffs.
And if you are wise, you will do the same thing too.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Saturday, April 2, 2011
Monta Ellis: Shining Star
I wrote an article on Monta Ellis and the Golden State Warriors and had it published on Yahoo!.
It goes over some of his electrifying moments from the season and talks about how he is one of the best players in the NBA and also touches on what could be a bright future for Golden State.
I'm looking for other outlets to bring more exposure to my feature stories in an attempt to one day get paid to do this.
Enjoy!
Note: The Ellis article was completed and submitted for publication on March 28, 2011.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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It goes over some of his electrifying moments from the season and talks about how he is one of the best players in the NBA and also touches on what could be a bright future for Golden State.
I'm looking for other outlets to bring more exposure to my feature stories in an attempt to one day get paid to do this.
Enjoy!
Note: The Ellis article was completed and submitted for publication on March 28, 2011.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Saturday, February 5, 2011
Dunks, Drive-Ins And Dives
At what point does Boston start worrying about its backup centers Jermaine and Shaquille O'Neal?
Rasheed Wallace played a huge role for this team in the playoffs last year, and these two guys were supposed to replace him.
Instead, we are left with Semih Erden.
The O'Neals are going to have to perform at the highest level, not only with their physical conditioning but with their knowledge and execution of the team concepts, with their teammates to win a championship.
It's looking more and more challenging as each day passes with each of them missing time due to various injuries.
The Milwaukee Bucks might be the most interesting story down the stretch.
They are 1.5 games out of eighth place in the East (5.5 games from sixth place) and are starting to get their players back.
They could have a full roster by the end of March, including Michael Redd and Drew Gooden.
I've been very critical of Al Jefferson, but I have to give him credit for some plays he made last night against Denver.
He made 1 ½ crucial stops as a help defender on Carmelo Anthony in the final 3:30 to help Utah get the victory.
Lack of help defense for years has been one of his biggest weaknesses.
It was a great job by Jefferson of playing tough defense when his team needed it most.
THE BLACK MAMBA
Henry Abbott released some numbers last week which, at least in his mind, finally proved once and for all that Kobe Bryant isn't as clutch as some think he is.
The funny thing is (I'll pretend I don't know why here), for some strange reason the numbers run all the way back to 1996, when Bryant was a rookie who barely played.
As I remember it, Bryant didn't become clutch until 2000, when he hit the game-winner to beat Phoenix in Game 2 of the first round of the playoffs and had that heroic Game 4 at Indiana in the Finals.
The raw numbers Abbott provides really don't mean much. In order to know what to make of this, we need to see the split statistics.
We need to know what Bryant shot in every game, every year against every opponent.
For all we know, Kobe Bryant could be shooting 80 percent against the best teams in the NBA and have all of his misses against the worst teams because they are harder to get motivated to play against.
And for all we know, he could be more clutch as his team advances further into the playoffs, peaking in the NBA Finals when he is at his absolute best.
But we don't know any of this because the splits aren't provided.
And we still don't know what Kobe Bryant shoots in game-winning situations in the last 10 seconds, with game-tying information removed from the data.
An article came out this season showing Carmelo Anthony was the best in game-winning or game-tying situations at .455, and Bryant had the most game-winners with 21, but Bryant's percentage wasn't provided.
Abbott wrote about Bryant's game-winners last season and gave some information which showed that Bryant has been awfully impressive recently. So it certainly appears that the numbers are trending in Bryant's direction.
But without the splits, there is just no way to tell one way or the other.
FOSTER KIDS
A funny thing happens when you predict a team to do well.
Because we all want to be right, you sort of adopt that team as your foster team and root for them to win; so they can make you look good.
And let me tell you, rooting for these teams has been such a gut-wrenching roller coaster of emotions that I don't know what to do with myself.
John Kuester fumbled the start of the season by not playing Greg Monroe as much as he should have, and at the start of the season Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince weren't playing with enough passion.
Minnesota had me on the high part of the roller coaster during the preseason. Then Martell Webster had to have back surgery and miss the start of the season.
Jonny Flynn's mid-November return from off-season surgery turned into mid-December.
In between, about every player on the roster had to miss time with injuries.
Darko Milicic sprained his ankle one game on the opening tip.
Anthony Tolliver is a 12th man who takes shot attempts like he's the franchise player. And Kurt Rambis keeps giving him playing time.
As soon as Los Angeles got cooking, Eric Gordon hurt his wrist and hasn't played since.
Jim O'Brien barely played Tyler Hansbrough and benched Paul George for almost two months, and TJ Ford has played a total of 10 minutes in the past nine games.
New coach Frank Vogel has Dahntay Jones higher in his rotation than James Posey, a highly-underrated basketball player with two championship rings, and has AJ Price higher in his rotation than TJ Ford.
Keith Smart just won't stop playing Vladimir Radmanovic at power forward.
Golden State assigned Jeremy Lin to the development league even though in his last action against actual NBA players, Golden State trailed 70-75 when he entered the game; and the score was tied 96-96 when he left it.
And even though Kevin Durant tried to score on him two times when Golden State played Oklahoma City and ended up with nothing but a turnover and a ball deflected out of bounds.
David Lee let the unstoppable Boris Diaw muscle him in the post, along with David West and just about everybody else.
The price we pay to be correct.
Like real foster kids, these teams drive you crazy because they are bad as hell. But you love them anyway because you adopted them, so they are yours.
GLAD TO BE WRONG
About the only time I enjoy being wrong is when a player or team turns out to be better than I thought they would.
And that is the case with the Toronto Raptors.
In my "Eastern Conference Preview" I suggested that their original, expansion roster might be more talented than their current one.
And while praising Jose Calderon in "The NBA's Best Point Guards," I called them a cast of "scrubs, losers, cast-offs and wannabes."
I got this one wrong.
I have an iron-clad rule when it comes to losing teams: at least be entertaining.
And Toronto is fun to watch.
DeMar DeRozan and Sonny Weems get after it on pretty much a nightly basis, and Andrea Bargnani can light it up at any given moment.
Because of injuries, they are not nearly as bad as their record indicates.
There is a future in Toronto.
Note: Al Jefferson was given a stop for drawing an offensive foul on Carmelo Anthony and ½ of a stop for his blocked shot on Anthony. Raja Bell got the other ½ of a stop for recovering the blocked shot.
For more information on how to figure stops and fractional stops, see my article on advanced defensive statistics.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Rasheed Wallace played a huge role for this team in the playoffs last year, and these two guys were supposed to replace him.
Instead, we are left with Semih Erden.
The O'Neals are going to have to perform at the highest level, not only with their physical conditioning but with their knowledge and execution of the team concepts, with their teammates to win a championship.
It's looking more and more challenging as each day passes with each of them missing time due to various injuries.
The Milwaukee Bucks might be the most interesting story down the stretch.
They are 1.5 games out of eighth place in the East (5.5 games from sixth place) and are starting to get their players back.
They could have a full roster by the end of March, including Michael Redd and Drew Gooden.
I've been very critical of Al Jefferson, but I have to give him credit for some plays he made last night against Denver.
He made 1 ½ crucial stops as a help defender on Carmelo Anthony in the final 3:30 to help Utah get the victory.
Lack of help defense for years has been one of his biggest weaknesses.
It was a great job by Jefferson of playing tough defense when his team needed it most.
THE BLACK MAMBA
Henry Abbott released some numbers last week which, at least in his mind, finally proved once and for all that Kobe Bryant isn't as clutch as some think he is.
The funny thing is (I'll pretend I don't know why here), for some strange reason the numbers run all the way back to 1996, when Bryant was a rookie who barely played.
As I remember it, Bryant didn't become clutch until 2000, when he hit the game-winner to beat Phoenix in Game 2 of the first round of the playoffs and had that heroic Game 4 at Indiana in the Finals.
The raw numbers Abbott provides really don't mean much. In order to know what to make of this, we need to see the split statistics.
We need to know what Bryant shot in every game, every year against every opponent.
For all we know, Kobe Bryant could be shooting 80 percent against the best teams in the NBA and have all of his misses against the worst teams because they are harder to get motivated to play against.
And for all we know, he could be more clutch as his team advances further into the playoffs, peaking in the NBA Finals when he is at his absolute best.
But we don't know any of this because the splits aren't provided.
And we still don't know what Kobe Bryant shoots in game-winning situations in the last 10 seconds, with game-tying information removed from the data.
An article came out this season showing Carmelo Anthony was the best in game-winning or game-tying situations at .455, and Bryant had the most game-winners with 21, but Bryant's percentage wasn't provided.
Abbott wrote about Bryant's game-winners last season and gave some information which showed that Bryant has been awfully impressive recently. So it certainly appears that the numbers are trending in Bryant's direction.
But without the splits, there is just no way to tell one way or the other.
FOSTER KIDS
A funny thing happens when you predict a team to do well.
Because we all want to be right, you sort of adopt that team as your foster team and root for them to win; so they can make you look good.
And let me tell you, rooting for these teams has been such a gut-wrenching roller coaster of emotions that I don't know what to do with myself.
John Kuester fumbled the start of the season by not playing Greg Monroe as much as he should have, and at the start of the season Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince weren't playing with enough passion.
Minnesota had me on the high part of the roller coaster during the preseason. Then Martell Webster had to have back surgery and miss the start of the season.
Jonny Flynn's mid-November return from off-season surgery turned into mid-December.
In between, about every player on the roster had to miss time with injuries.
Darko Milicic sprained his ankle one game on the opening tip.
Anthony Tolliver is a 12th man who takes shot attempts like he's the franchise player. And Kurt Rambis keeps giving him playing time.
As soon as Los Angeles got cooking, Eric Gordon hurt his wrist and hasn't played since.
Jim O'Brien barely played Tyler Hansbrough and benched Paul George for almost two months, and TJ Ford has played a total of 10 minutes in the past nine games.
New coach Frank Vogel has Dahntay Jones higher in his rotation than James Posey, a highly-underrated basketball player with two championship rings, and has AJ Price higher in his rotation than TJ Ford.
Keith Smart just won't stop playing Vladimir Radmanovic at power forward.
Golden State assigned Jeremy Lin to the development league even though in his last action against actual NBA players, Golden State trailed 70-75 when he entered the game; and the score was tied 96-96 when he left it.
And even though Kevin Durant tried to score on him two times when Golden State played Oklahoma City and ended up with nothing but a turnover and a ball deflected out of bounds.
David Lee let the unstoppable Boris Diaw muscle him in the post, along with David West and just about everybody else.
The price we pay to be correct.
Like real foster kids, these teams drive you crazy because they are bad as hell. But you love them anyway because you adopted them, so they are yours.
GLAD TO BE WRONG
About the only time I enjoy being wrong is when a player or team turns out to be better than I thought they would.
And that is the case with the Toronto Raptors.
In my "Eastern Conference Preview" I suggested that their original, expansion roster might be more talented than their current one.
And while praising Jose Calderon in "The NBA's Best Point Guards," I called them a cast of "scrubs, losers, cast-offs and wannabes."
I got this one wrong.
I have an iron-clad rule when it comes to losing teams: at least be entertaining.
And Toronto is fun to watch.
DeMar DeRozan and Sonny Weems get after it on pretty much a nightly basis, and Andrea Bargnani can light it up at any given moment.
Because of injuries, they are not nearly as bad as their record indicates.
There is a future in Toronto.
Note: Al Jefferson was given a stop for drawing an offensive foul on Carmelo Anthony and ½ of a stop for his blocked shot on Anthony. Raja Bell got the other ½ of a stop for recovering the blocked shot.
For more information on how to figure stops and fractional stops, see my article on advanced defensive statistics.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Saturday, December 4, 2010
Around The Association
This was LeBron Week, so I guess it's time to chime in and say something about the Miami Heat.
The media have swooped down on Miami like vultures on a fresh carcass and done everything from fire the coach to trade one of the team's key players.
It has become really cool all of a sudden, like wearing a leather jacket and smoking cigarettes in the '70s, to say something bad about LeBron James or the Miami Heat.
DON'T SPEAK TOO SOON
Part of this hysteria is really nothing but overreaction.
Dan Patrick had the greatest observation of this phenomenon. He often talks about how football fans and reporters overreact and think they are going to the Super Bowl or think the season is over after their team wins or loses the first game or two of the season.
It is unfair to judge Miami at this point due to the number of players who have not been available.
Mario Chalmers battled an ankle injury and didn't play 20 minutes in any game until November 27 and has done so only four times so far this season.
Miami is 3-1 in those games.
I saw Chalmers play for about five minutes in the second half against Washington, his second game playing at least 20 minutes. There was more ball movement for Miami in those five minutes than there had been all season combined without Chalmers on the floor.
The Heat also obviously misses Mike Miller.
My only criticism of Erik Spoelstra is the limited playing time he has given Joel Anthony. For what it's worth, Miami is 7-1 when Anthony plays at least 20 minutes.
It probably has something to do with the fact that he leads the team with 1.2 blocks per game despite averaging only 18 minutes.
To those shoveling dirt on Miami's grave, you may want to tone down the rhetoric, unless you want to look really stupid in a few weeks.
BEATING A DEAD HORSE
The impact that injuries are having on this season can't be emphasized enough.
Golden State is the latest team to be bitten by the injury bug.
Golden State started the season as one of the best teams in the league at 6-2. Then David Lee injured his elbow and missed eight games.
The Warriors lost one of Lee's backups (Brandan Wright) to a back injury two games after Lee went out. They were already playing without top pick Ekpe Udoh, who hasn't played all season due to a wrist injury.
The result has been an incredibly thin front line which has seen the team limp to a 2-9 record in its last 11 games (1-7 without Lee).
It got so bad that Keith Smart had to resort to starting Vladimir Radmanovic at power forward for a few games before he ditched the idea and went back to Dan Gadzuric.
Neither idea worked, and the team is now struggling to find itself.
THE DEFINITION OF CLUTCH
There has been a change in how clutch will be defined when games are analyzed.
Clutch will now be defined as the last two minutes of the game or overtime when no team is ahead by more than three points.
It was changed from the last five minutes because the five-minute mark just doesn't feel big enough or important enough when watching close games and because it is much easier to track the last two minutes of a game as compared to the last five minutes.
Players who make shots during this time will be judged based on whether their team is behind, tied or leading with the following priority:
(1.) Trailing
(2.) Tied
(3.) Leading
Priority will also be given based on the time the shot takes place, with the following order of importance:
(1.) 0-10 seconds
(2.) 10.1-24 seconds
(3.) 24.1-30 seconds
(4.) 30.1-1:00 minute
(5.) 1:01-1:30 seconds
(6.) 1:31-2:00 minutes
So a player who hits a go-ahead shot with two minutes left won't be considered as clutch as a player who hits one with 10 seconds remaining.
Game-winners will be defined as shots with 10 seconds or less in the fourth quarter or overtime which give a team the lead for good. This matches how Elias Sports Bureau defines and tracks game-winners.
Game-winning shots will be prioritized in the following order:
(1.) Lead-changing game-winners
(2.) Game-winners
(3.) Game-clinchers
Game-clinchers or icers or daggers aren't really game-winners because they come when the team is already ahead. But something had to be created for players who put games away like this.
Lead-changing game-winners are defined as the most clutch due to the player having so much on the line.
For a player who misses a shot with the score tied, the worst which can happen is that the game goes into overtime.
But a player who misses a shot when his team is behind loses the game. He then has to answer all of the questions about what happened and live for a minimum of 24 hours with the fact that he let his team down.
It is such a pressurized situation that players who step up to the challenge deserve more credit when they pull it off.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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The media have swooped down on Miami like vultures on a fresh carcass and done everything from fire the coach to trade one of the team's key players.
It has become really cool all of a sudden, like wearing a leather jacket and smoking cigarettes in the '70s, to say something bad about LeBron James or the Miami Heat.
DON'T SPEAK TOO SOON
Part of this hysteria is really nothing but overreaction.
Dan Patrick had the greatest observation of this phenomenon. He often talks about how football fans and reporters overreact and think they are going to the Super Bowl or think the season is over after their team wins or loses the first game or two of the season.
It is unfair to judge Miami at this point due to the number of players who have not been available.
Mario Chalmers battled an ankle injury and didn't play 20 minutes in any game until November 27 and has done so only four times so far this season.
Miami is 3-1 in those games.
I saw Chalmers play for about five minutes in the second half against Washington, his second game playing at least 20 minutes. There was more ball movement for Miami in those five minutes than there had been all season combined without Chalmers on the floor.
The Heat also obviously misses Mike Miller.
My only criticism of Erik Spoelstra is the limited playing time he has given Joel Anthony. For what it's worth, Miami is 7-1 when Anthony plays at least 20 minutes.
It probably has something to do with the fact that he leads the team with 1.2 blocks per game despite averaging only 18 minutes.
To those shoveling dirt on Miami's grave, you may want to tone down the rhetoric, unless you want to look really stupid in a few weeks.
BEATING A DEAD HORSE
The impact that injuries are having on this season can't be emphasized enough.
Golden State is the latest team to be bitten by the injury bug.
Golden State started the season as one of the best teams in the league at 6-2. Then David Lee injured his elbow and missed eight games.
The Warriors lost one of Lee's backups (Brandan Wright) to a back injury two games after Lee went out. They were already playing without top pick Ekpe Udoh, who hasn't played all season due to a wrist injury.
The result has been an incredibly thin front line which has seen the team limp to a 2-9 record in its last 11 games (1-7 without Lee).
It got so bad that Keith Smart had to resort to starting Vladimir Radmanovic at power forward for a few games before he ditched the idea and went back to Dan Gadzuric.
Neither idea worked, and the team is now struggling to find itself.
THE DEFINITION OF CLUTCH
There has been a change in how clutch will be defined when games are analyzed.
Clutch will now be defined as the last two minutes of the game or overtime when no team is ahead by more than three points.
It was changed from the last five minutes because the five-minute mark just doesn't feel big enough or important enough when watching close games and because it is much easier to track the last two minutes of a game as compared to the last five minutes.
Players who make shots during this time will be judged based on whether their team is behind, tied or leading with the following priority:
(1.) Trailing
(2.) Tied
(3.) Leading
Priority will also be given based on the time the shot takes place, with the following order of importance:
(1.) 0-10 seconds
(2.) 10.1-24 seconds
(3.) 24.1-30 seconds
(4.) 30.1-1:00 minute
(5.) 1:01-1:30 seconds
(6.) 1:31-2:00 minutes
So a player who hits a go-ahead shot with two minutes left won't be considered as clutch as a player who hits one with 10 seconds remaining.
Game-winners will be defined as shots with 10 seconds or less in the fourth quarter or overtime which give a team the lead for good. This matches how Elias Sports Bureau defines and tracks game-winners.
Game-winning shots will be prioritized in the following order:
(1.) Lead-changing game-winners
(2.) Game-winners
(3.) Game-clinchers
Game-clinchers or icers or daggers aren't really game-winners because they come when the team is already ahead. But something had to be created for players who put games away like this.
Lead-changing game-winners are defined as the most clutch due to the player having so much on the line.
For a player who misses a shot with the score tied, the worst which can happen is that the game goes into overtime.
But a player who misses a shot when his team is behind loses the game. He then has to answer all of the questions about what happened and live for a minimum of 24 hours with the fact that he let his team down.
It is such a pressurized situation that players who step up to the challenge deserve more credit when they pull it off.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Saturday, October 30, 2010
Early Impressions
The 2010-11 NBA season is four days old. These are some of my early impressions from the young season.
LUIS SCOLA
Luis Scola is far more productive than I thought he would be. Charley Rosen picked Houston to possibly unseat Los Angeles in the West. I wouldn't go that far, but Scola's early production has raised my eyebrow.
BIG AL'S OLD TRICKS
Al Jefferson is up to his old tricks again. The optimism of his preseason FGA:A ratio has withered away into ice-cold reality.
Through two games, Jefferson has played 68 minutes and has 24 field goal attempts and zero assists. In Utah's home opener against Phoenix he took 18 shots and didn't muster a single assist.
Among the many reasons for Utah's 0-2 start, Al Jefferson's passing inefficiency has to be one of them.
WHERE'S GREG?
No. 7 pick Greg Monroe has yet to see the court for the Detroit Pistons. I understand that he is a rookie and all, but not one stinking minute?
It's preposterous! A good coach should be able to get a talented rookie a few early minutes without it hurting the team.
The same thing goes for Vinny Del Negro and Al-Farouq Aminu. Aminu can't be any worse than the other players who played small forward for the Clippers last night.
MOST IMPRESSIVE WINS
Cleveland over Boston -- Cleveland wasn't supposed to be able to win a game against a team this good without the "Chosen One."
Memphis over Dallas -- Dallas was the No. 2 seed in the West last year. Memphis missed the playoffs. This is a huge road win.
Indiana over Charlotte -- Another win by a non-playoff team against a playoff team on the road. A come-from-behind victory on the road against a tough Charlotte team showed a lot of character.
Los Angeles over Houston -- Los Angeles was expected to win the game, but it is how they won. It is impressive when your big off-season acquisition (Steve Blake) hits a game-winning three-pointer in his first game.
WHY I LOVE NBA LEAGUE PASS
While everyone without LP had to watch the Lakers and Suns, I got to watch the Clippers and Warriors.
Golden State's new arena floor and uniforms look beautiful on television, and the blue shoes worn by Dorell Wright and Monta Ellis only added to the visual appeal of the game.
Then the Warriors came out and kicked butt. They pass the ball like Sacramento of the early 2000s and play pretty good defense too.
They were more entertaining than Run TMC until Stephen Curry re-aggravated his ankle injury and had to leave the game in the third quarter.
Golden State went on to win and go to 2-0 for the first time since 1994-95.*
*NBA GameTime
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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LUIS SCOLA
Luis Scola is far more productive than I thought he would be. Charley Rosen picked Houston to possibly unseat Los Angeles in the West. I wouldn't go that far, but Scola's early production has raised my eyebrow.
BIG AL'S OLD TRICKS
Al Jefferson is up to his old tricks again. The optimism of his preseason FGA:A ratio has withered away into ice-cold reality.
Through two games, Jefferson has played 68 minutes and has 24 field goal attempts and zero assists. In Utah's home opener against Phoenix he took 18 shots and didn't muster a single assist.
Among the many reasons for Utah's 0-2 start, Al Jefferson's passing inefficiency has to be one of them.
WHERE'S GREG?
No. 7 pick Greg Monroe has yet to see the court for the Detroit Pistons. I understand that he is a rookie and all, but not one stinking minute?
It's preposterous! A good coach should be able to get a talented rookie a few early minutes without it hurting the team.
The same thing goes for Vinny Del Negro and Al-Farouq Aminu. Aminu can't be any worse than the other players who played small forward for the Clippers last night.
MOST IMPRESSIVE WINS
Cleveland over Boston -- Cleveland wasn't supposed to be able to win a game against a team this good without the "Chosen One."
Memphis over Dallas -- Dallas was the No. 2 seed in the West last year. Memphis missed the playoffs. This is a huge road win.
Indiana over Charlotte -- Another win by a non-playoff team against a playoff team on the road. A come-from-behind victory on the road against a tough Charlotte team showed a lot of character.
Los Angeles over Houston -- Los Angeles was expected to win the game, but it is how they won. It is impressive when your big off-season acquisition (Steve Blake) hits a game-winning three-pointer in his first game.
WHY I LOVE NBA LEAGUE PASS
While everyone without LP had to watch the Lakers and Suns, I got to watch the Clippers and Warriors.
Golden State's new arena floor and uniforms look beautiful on television, and the blue shoes worn by Dorell Wright and Monta Ellis only added to the visual appeal of the game.
Then the Warriors came out and kicked butt. They pass the ball like Sacramento of the early 2000s and play pretty good defense too.
They were more entertaining than Run TMC until Stephen Curry re-aggravated his ankle injury and had to leave the game in the third quarter.
Golden State went on to win and go to 2-0 for the first time since 1994-95.*
*NBA GameTime
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Friday, August 6, 2010
Most Improved Teams
The life of a sports fan is a roller coaster of emotions. You go from delirious highs to gut-wrenching lows over the course of a season, a game or even a few seconds.
We love our sports, and we love our teams and our players.
They may never win a championship or even come close, but we still love them for trying.
When you really think about it, all you can ask from a team is that they do their best and try to get better every year in hopes of winning a championship.
No fan of any team in any sport should have to suffer supporting a team which never improves and remains hopelessly stuck in the land of mediocrity, or even worse, atrocity.
Looking at this off-season in the NBA, it is safe to say that everybody knows teams like the Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls got better, and the Milwaukee Bucks have received recognition for their improvement as well, although I may have been the first to give them their due.
At the same time, there are other improved teams which for one reason or another haven't received the same publicity for their key additions and other moves which will make them better next season.
Before we get started, it should be pointed out that teams which decide to play lottery-ball instead of basketball can't be accounted for.
"Lottery-ball" is the term made up here to describe teams which play to win next season's NBA Draft Lottery rather than this season's schedule of games.
It is a phenomenon in the NBA which happens almost every year, especially when there is a can't-miss, franchise player available.
Bill Simmons has written about it, and here is a Dime Magazine summary of a Chris Tomasson piece quoting John Lucas and his description of how Cleveland sabotaged their 2002-03 season to win the right to draft LeBron James, a charge former Cavaliers owner Gordon Gund denies.
This phenomenon goes all the way back to the days before the NBA Draft Lottery, and it is why the league felt it had to input the lottery to begin with, although some people will tell you it was put in place in 1985 so the NBA could put Patrick Ewing on the New York Knicks by fixing the lottery.
Injuries are another thing which can't be accounted for, so this list is put in place assuming the teams (1) will remain relatively healthy and (2) will try their best to win as many games as possible.
(1) Detroit Pistons
One way to spot a team destined to improve is to look at teams who lost a lot of minutes from their best player(s).
This causes them to lose a lot of games, many more than they would have with the player(s) available.
They then end up in the lottery and get a player they never would have gotten with a healthy team.
The best player(s) come back joined by the lottery pick and poof!
Instant improvement.
Last year, Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince, probably Detroit's best two players, both missed about half of the season.
The Pistons were able to parlay that misery into No. 7 overall pick Greg Monroe.
Hamilton and Prince returning and teaming up with high draft pick Monroe puts Detroit in prime position to improve its win total from last season.
Those injuries also allowed young players like Jonas Jerebko, Will Bynum and Austin Daye to gain valuable experience which will help the team.
Detroit has a deep team with many talented players whose skills go together. They should be much better than they were last year.
(2) Minnesota Timberwolves
The biggest reason Minnesota will be better this year is that they were so far down to begin with. With only 15 wins, there is almost no other way to go but up.
Thankfully, for the team's fans and fans of good basketball, general manager David Kahn and coach Kurt Rambis did much to improve the team after the end of last season.
The talent upgrade alone should double their win total, and they could finish around .500 or better with intangibles like team chemistry breaking their way.
In a trade with the Miami Heat, Minnesota picked up Michael Beasley. We must remind ourselves how great Michael Beasley was in his one season at Kansas State.
Here is some footage from that season.
Without Beasley having issues, there is no way Minnesota gets him as cheaply as they did or even at all. Beasley is an all-world talent who can take Minnesota wherever they want to go.
He just has to get himself together and on the right path and also learn how to pass the basketball (10.9:1 career FGA:A ratio).
Minnesota also added Wesley Johnson, Luke Ridnour, Sebastian Telfair and Martell Webster to go along with Corey Brewer, Jonny Flynn, Kevin Love, Darko Milicic and Wayne Ellington.
That is a very nice group of players.
They still need a rebounder/shot-blocker to become a real threat, but that player can be picked up next season.
For now, fans should be thrilled with the prospects of the current team.
(3) Los Angeles Clippers
No. 1 overall pick Blake Griffin missed the entire season last year. The Clippers drafted Al-Farouq Aminu No. 8 in the draft, so the Clippers will be adding two top-eight picks to their team from last season.
Griffin is another all-world talent.
The NBA has never before seen a power forward like him.
Here he is at Oklahoma, like Beasley, just incredible footage.
Another thing to look for is a team with a good backup point guard. Teams with good number-two point guards tend to do well because they allow teams to sustain their offenses for the full 48 minutes.
Like the Timberwolves with Ridnour and Telfair, the Clippers have Randy Foye. This was an excellent and underrated signing which will greatly help Los Angeles.
The Clips also have Chris Kaman and Baron Davis, two of the best players in the league at their positions. They have made significant roster upgrades and actually look like they are trying to win.
Coach Vinny Del Negro did an excellent job in Chicago last year, finishing 6-2 down the stretch to eke into the playoffs and making a great showing in the playoffs.
He did this while battling the adversity of having team executive John Paxson assault him in his office and the team suffering a 10-game losing streak when center Joakim Noah sat out with an injury.
The Clippers could make the playoffs this season.
(4) Indiana Pacers
Danny Granger missed 20 games last season, and TJ Ford missed 35. Indiana played Roy Hibbert only 25 minutes per game.
Neither of these three players played the most minutes (scroll down to "TOTALS" and click "MP") for the Pacers last year.
That honor belongs to Brandon Rush, followed by Troy Murphy and Earl Watson, not exactly the Super Friends.
That alone explains why Indiana won only 32 games. No team is going to win many games with those three players playing the most minutes.
Now that they drafted Paul George, maybe Indiana can start playing its best players again.
They have a deep and talented team and a championship core: Ford, George, Granger, Hibbert. These four players playing the most minutes will no doubt take the Pacers back to the playoffs.
The Pacers need a rebounder/shot-blocker at power forward and maybe a better backup point guard to compete for a championship, but we'll see how the team plays together and make that call later in the year.
(5) Golden State Warriors
Golden State was already covered here with their signing of Jeremy Lin.
We'll have to wait until Ekpe Udoh comes back from wrist surgery to fully evaluate them because along with Andris Biedrins, who missed 49 games last year, he gives them the ability to defend the paint, the most important thing a basketball team must do to win and a weakness of the Warriors since forever.
Look at who played the most minutes for Golden State last year.
Their only shot-blockers were Ronny Turiaf, Biedrins and Anthony Randolph; and they played in 42, 33 and 33 games.
That explains why Golden State allowed the most points in the league and had the second-worst field goal percentage defense.
Of the five players who played the most minutes, Corey Maggette was the tallest at 6-6; and Monta Ellis, at all of 6-3, led those five players with 25 blocks (.4 per game).
Nothing more needs to be said.
The Warriors will have to hold down the fort until Udoh comes back then try to make a run late in the season to make the playoffs.
Even without Udoh they should be drastically improved.
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We love our sports, and we love our teams and our players.
They may never win a championship or even come close, but we still love them for trying.
When you really think about it, all you can ask from a team is that they do their best and try to get better every year in hopes of winning a championship.
No fan of any team in any sport should have to suffer supporting a team which never improves and remains hopelessly stuck in the land of mediocrity, or even worse, atrocity.
Looking at this off-season in the NBA, it is safe to say that everybody knows teams like the Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls got better, and the Milwaukee Bucks have received recognition for their improvement as well, although I may have been the first to give them their due.
At the same time, there are other improved teams which for one reason or another haven't received the same publicity for their key additions and other moves which will make them better next season.
Before we get started, it should be pointed out that teams which decide to play lottery-ball instead of basketball can't be accounted for.
"Lottery-ball" is the term made up here to describe teams which play to win next season's NBA Draft Lottery rather than this season's schedule of games.
It is a phenomenon in the NBA which happens almost every year, especially when there is a can't-miss, franchise player available.
Bill Simmons has written about it, and here is a Dime Magazine summary of a Chris Tomasson piece quoting John Lucas and his description of how Cleveland sabotaged their 2002-03 season to win the right to draft LeBron James, a charge former Cavaliers owner Gordon Gund denies.
This phenomenon goes all the way back to the days before the NBA Draft Lottery, and it is why the league felt it had to input the lottery to begin with, although some people will tell you it was put in place in 1985 so the NBA could put Patrick Ewing on the New York Knicks by fixing the lottery.
Injuries are another thing which can't be accounted for, so this list is put in place assuming the teams (1) will remain relatively healthy and (2) will try their best to win as many games as possible.
(1) Detroit Pistons
One way to spot a team destined to improve is to look at teams who lost a lot of minutes from their best player(s).
This causes them to lose a lot of games, many more than they would have with the player(s) available.
They then end up in the lottery and get a player they never would have gotten with a healthy team.
The best player(s) come back joined by the lottery pick and poof!
Instant improvement.
Last year, Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince, probably Detroit's best two players, both missed about half of the season.
The Pistons were able to parlay that misery into No. 7 overall pick Greg Monroe.
Hamilton and Prince returning and teaming up with high draft pick Monroe puts Detroit in prime position to improve its win total from last season.
Those injuries also allowed young players like Jonas Jerebko, Will Bynum and Austin Daye to gain valuable experience which will help the team.
Detroit has a deep team with many talented players whose skills go together. They should be much better than they were last year.
(2) Minnesota Timberwolves
The biggest reason Minnesota will be better this year is that they were so far down to begin with. With only 15 wins, there is almost no other way to go but up.
Thankfully, for the team's fans and fans of good basketball, general manager David Kahn and coach Kurt Rambis did much to improve the team after the end of last season.
The talent upgrade alone should double their win total, and they could finish around .500 or better with intangibles like team chemistry breaking their way.
In a trade with the Miami Heat, Minnesota picked up Michael Beasley. We must remind ourselves how great Michael Beasley was in his one season at Kansas State.
Here is some footage from that season.
Without Beasley having issues, there is no way Minnesota gets him as cheaply as they did or even at all. Beasley is an all-world talent who can take Minnesota wherever they want to go.
He just has to get himself together and on the right path and also learn how to pass the basketball (10.9:1 career FGA:A ratio).
Minnesota also added Wesley Johnson, Luke Ridnour, Sebastian Telfair and Martell Webster to go along with Corey Brewer, Jonny Flynn, Kevin Love, Darko Milicic and Wayne Ellington.
That is a very nice group of players.
They still need a rebounder/shot-blocker to become a real threat, but that player can be picked up next season.
For now, fans should be thrilled with the prospects of the current team.
(3) Los Angeles Clippers
No. 1 overall pick Blake Griffin missed the entire season last year. The Clippers drafted Al-Farouq Aminu No. 8 in the draft, so the Clippers will be adding two top-eight picks to their team from last season.
Griffin is another all-world talent.
The NBA has never before seen a power forward like him.
Here he is at Oklahoma, like Beasley, just incredible footage.
Another thing to look for is a team with a good backup point guard. Teams with good number-two point guards tend to do well because they allow teams to sustain their offenses for the full 48 minutes.
Like the Timberwolves with Ridnour and Telfair, the Clippers have Randy Foye. This was an excellent and underrated signing which will greatly help Los Angeles.
The Clips also have Chris Kaman and Baron Davis, two of the best players in the league at their positions. They have made significant roster upgrades and actually look like they are trying to win.
Coach Vinny Del Negro did an excellent job in Chicago last year, finishing 6-2 down the stretch to eke into the playoffs and making a great showing in the playoffs.
He did this while battling the adversity of having team executive John Paxson assault him in his office and the team suffering a 10-game losing streak when center Joakim Noah sat out with an injury.
The Clippers could make the playoffs this season.
(4) Indiana Pacers
Danny Granger missed 20 games last season, and TJ Ford missed 35. Indiana played Roy Hibbert only 25 minutes per game.
Neither of these three players played the most minutes (scroll down to "TOTALS" and click "MP") for the Pacers last year.
That honor belongs to Brandon Rush, followed by Troy Murphy and Earl Watson, not exactly the Super Friends.
That alone explains why Indiana won only 32 games. No team is going to win many games with those three players playing the most minutes.
Now that they drafted Paul George, maybe Indiana can start playing its best players again.
They have a deep and talented team and a championship core: Ford, George, Granger, Hibbert. These four players playing the most minutes will no doubt take the Pacers back to the playoffs.
The Pacers need a rebounder/shot-blocker at power forward and maybe a better backup point guard to compete for a championship, but we'll see how the team plays together and make that call later in the year.
(5) Golden State Warriors
Golden State was already covered here with their signing of Jeremy Lin.
We'll have to wait until Ekpe Udoh comes back from wrist surgery to fully evaluate them because along with Andris Biedrins, who missed 49 games last year, he gives them the ability to defend the paint, the most important thing a basketball team must do to win and a weakness of the Warriors since forever.
Look at who played the most minutes for Golden State last year.
Their only shot-blockers were Ronny Turiaf, Biedrins and Anthony Randolph; and they played in 42, 33 and 33 games.
That explains why Golden State allowed the most points in the league and had the second-worst field goal percentage defense.
Of the five players who played the most minutes, Corey Maggette was the tallest at 6-6; and Monta Ellis, at all of 6-3, led those five players with 25 blocks (.4 per game).
Nothing more needs to be said.
The Warriors will have to hold down the fort until Udoh comes back then try to make a run late in the season to make the playoffs.
Even without Udoh they should be drastically improved.
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Sunday, July 25, 2010
Golden State Signs Warrior Jeremy Lin
The troubled franchise known as the Golden State Warriors may finally be headed in the right direction. With one playoff appearance in the past 16 seasons, things look to be turning around.
The Warriors signed free agent point guard Jeremy Lin this week.
Not to go all Bill Walton here, but this might be the greatest transaction in the history of the franchise because the Warriors literally stole a lottery pick off of another team's summer league roster.
Jeremy Lin should have been the second point guard taken in the 2010 NBA Draft, maybe the first.
He went toe-to-toe with No. 1 overall pick John Wall in summer league in Las Vegas and at the very least held his own. Lin is a better defender and has a much higher basketball IQ than Wall does at this point.
I never heard of Jeremy Lin before summer league, but looking at his incredible highlights and statistics from Harvard, there is no way he should have fallen past pick number 20, much less gone undrafted.
And pick number 20 is being conservative.
Here is video from the fourth quarter of Lin's game against John Wall, and this is video of Lin against Sacramento.
Two plays should be pointed out here: In the college highlights Lin steals a pass from and scores over Georgetown center Greg Monroe (2:37); and in the Sacramento highlights Lin gets a steal and scores over Kings big man DeMarcus Cousins (1:59).
Cousins and Monroe were the 5th and 7th picks in the draft.
Jeremy Lin also stole the ball from and scored over No. 15 pick Larry Sanders of the Milwaukee Bucks (:26), who averaged 3.2 blocks per game in summer league. He later takes the ball away from Sanders again (1:22).
In short, Lin makes play after play on four of the top 15 picks in the draft and three of the top seven.
There is no doubt that Jeremy Lin is NBA-ready.
He has everything a team should look for in a basketball player, and with Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis, he gives the Warriors one of the best guard rotations in the NBA.
To play with franchise players Curry and Ellis, the Warriors acquired power forward David Lee from the New York Knicks and signed free-agent small forward Dorell Wright from the Miami Heat.
Wright had some big moments for the Heat in the playoffs last year against the Celtics, particularly in Game 3.
Signing Wright might not be the same as Orlando plucking Tracy McGrady from the Toronto Raptors, but it could come close. And David Lee is one of the most underrated players in the league.
Golden State looks to be headed in the right direction and might make the playoffs this season.
This is video of a news story about Lin by a local TV station and his interview for the team website.
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The Warriors signed free agent point guard Jeremy Lin this week.
Not to go all Bill Walton here, but this might be the greatest transaction in the history of the franchise because the Warriors literally stole a lottery pick off of another team's summer league roster.
Jeremy Lin should have been the second point guard taken in the 2010 NBA Draft, maybe the first.
He went toe-to-toe with No. 1 overall pick John Wall in summer league in Las Vegas and at the very least held his own. Lin is a better defender and has a much higher basketball IQ than Wall does at this point.
I never heard of Jeremy Lin before summer league, but looking at his incredible highlights and statistics from Harvard, there is no way he should have fallen past pick number 20, much less gone undrafted.
And pick number 20 is being conservative.
Here is video from the fourth quarter of Lin's game against John Wall, and this is video of Lin against Sacramento.
Two plays should be pointed out here: In the college highlights Lin steals a pass from and scores over Georgetown center Greg Monroe (2:37); and in the Sacramento highlights Lin gets a steal and scores over Kings big man DeMarcus Cousins (1:59).
Cousins and Monroe were the 5th and 7th picks in the draft.
Jeremy Lin also stole the ball from and scored over No. 15 pick Larry Sanders of the Milwaukee Bucks (:26), who averaged 3.2 blocks per game in summer league. He later takes the ball away from Sanders again (1:22).
In short, Lin makes play after play on four of the top 15 picks in the draft and three of the top seven.
There is no doubt that Jeremy Lin is NBA-ready.
He has everything a team should look for in a basketball player, and with Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis, he gives the Warriors one of the best guard rotations in the NBA.
To play with franchise players Curry and Ellis, the Warriors acquired power forward David Lee from the New York Knicks and signed free-agent small forward Dorell Wright from the Miami Heat.
Wright had some big moments for the Heat in the playoffs last year against the Celtics, particularly in Game 3.
Signing Wright might not be the same as Orlando plucking Tracy McGrady from the Toronto Raptors, but it could come close. And David Lee is one of the most underrated players in the league.
Golden State looks to be headed in the right direction and might make the playoffs this season.
This is video of a news story about Lin by a local TV station and his interview for the team website.
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