Showing posts with label highlights. Show all posts
Showing posts with label highlights. Show all posts

Thursday, April 28, 2011

George Karl's Fatal Flaw

When Denver traded Carmelo Anthony to New York, I refused to write them off and at the same time described George Karl as an "outstanding" coach.

After learning more about him and watching his playoff performance against Oklahoma City, I'm going to have to downgrade him from outstanding to good.

Why?

The answer can be best summarized by the following statistics from the Oklahoma City series: Al Harrington (14 minutes per game), Timofey Mozgov (0 minutes per game).

That tells you all you need to know about George Karl and why he is 20 games below .500 in the playoffs.

He doesn't believe in the defending the paint, which is incredible when you consider his coaching history.

Of all people, George Karl should know how important it is to have a seven-footer in the lane who can block shots.

And two shot-blockers are even better.

Yet here we are, 17 years after Dikembe Mutombo swatted his Sonics, with the best record in the NBA, out of the playoffs in the first round; and George Karl is still fooling around with Al Harrington at power forward.

Harrington, never known for his defense, didn't record a single block in the series, averaged 1.2 defensive rebounds and was pretty much a non-factor in the lane defensively.

Mozgov playing center next to Chris Andersen would have been much more formidable, even assuming Mozgov went scoreless the entire series.

Harrington over Mozgov is basically a choice of three-point shooting over interior defense, a losing strategy if ever I saw one.

But this plays right into Karl's coaching philosophy, where he doesn't believe you need a seven-footer to win it all and also seems to have a lack of respect for non-scoring big men.

He asked who the seven-footers were for Detroit and Chicago when they won titles in the '80s and '90s, implying that they didn't have one; and you don't need one to win it all.

For the record, James Edwards was the seven-footer for Detroit; and it was Bill Cartwright for Chicago.

Luc Longley was the seven-footer during Chicago's second title run.

While neither could shoot the three like Al Harrington, each was effective at clogging up the lane and preventing easy buckets in the paint.

Longley is clearly the weakest of the bunch, but I'd take him over Al Harrington every day of the week and five times on Sunday when I need someone to stop Russell Westbrook from getting an uncontested layup or someone to secure a defensive rebound.

I'd also take Timofey Mozgov.

And unless George Karl wants to keep reliving "Mount" Mutombo nightmares from '94, he should start taking Mozgov as well, or anybody else who can defend the paint like Serge Ibaka did last night in a scene which looked too much like '94 all over again.

Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com

Friday, April 22, 2011

TJ Ford: Closer

Remain calm!: That is what I have to keep telling myself!

Because you have no idea how irate I am over the lack of playing time TJ Ford has received lately!

And as I watch Darren Collison and Indiana melt down in the final minutes of the fourth quarter in game after game, the fury increases immeasurably and takes complete control of my emotions!

I've written about this a thousand times and said it a thousand different ways!

And still, nobody seems to be listening!

But they say a picture is worth a thousand words, and that action speaks louder than words.

And if a picture is worth a thousand words, then moving pictures must be worth quite a bit more, right?

So here is TJ Ford (according to Larry Bird and Frank Vogel, the fourth-best point guard on the team), in moving pictures, in action, closing out the Lakers in Los Angeles back in November (:30) with beautiful, flawless execution.

It is precisely what Indiana needed at the end of the regular season and what they needed against Chicago in the playoffs.

It is also what Philadelphia needs, and a few other teams.

Ford would be a perfect fit for Philadelphia, even though he is only the fourth-best point guard on Indiana's roster.

It would be a little too much to ask Ford to come in and save Indiana now, since he has barely played, and unrealistic considering how little Bird and Vogel think of him.

But teams around the NBA in need of a top-flight point guard should be giving Ford a call as soon as the Chicago series is over.

Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com

Sunday, October 31, 2010

Saturday Night NBA

There were nine games in the association last night and several more big performances. Some of the developments were expected. Others came out of nowhere in another interesting night in the NBA.


HAWKS SOARING

New coach Larry Drew and his new offensive system have Atlanta playing like a different team. The Hawks (3-0) are sharing the basketball like never before.

They put on another impressive passing display in a win against a Washington team which didn't lay down for them.


JOHN WALL GAME 2

After struggling in his NBA debut, John Wall took some time to work on his game. It paid off. He came out against Atlanta and looked like an All-Star.

Watching Dennis Scott break down some plays from the game on NBA GameTime, you could tell that from game one to game two the game has already slowed down for him.

After putting in the previously-mentioned work on his game, Wall shot 9-17 from the field (2-3 from three) and had 28 points and nine more assists. He is scary good.


THE BEST POINT GUARD IN THE NBA

Chris Paul led New Orleans to a victory on the road against San Antonio with 25-7-5-2. The best part is that Paul had to play only 31 minutes to keep the Hornets unbeaten at 3-0.

His double-crossover on George Hill (2:00) was a work of art, and the runner off the glass over Hill and DeJuan Blair which followed iced the game with 27.1 seconds remaining.

Paul is going to excel playing on a deep team where he can rest and doesn't have to do everything all the time.

New Orleans has done a great job building this team, and Monty Williams is doing a great job coaching it.


TYLER HANSBROUGH

Power forward Tyler Hansbrough was huge in Indiana's back-to-back wins Friday and Saturday nights, hitting clutch shots and free throws, hustling for loose balls, providing energy off of the bench and showing a good floor game.

TJ Ford has also been crucial, with good floor leadership and spectacular defense.

Indiana wouldn't be 2-1 without them.

Watch Hansbrough and Ford help Josh McRoberts welcome Evan Turner to the NBA.

Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com

Saturday, August 21, 2010

More NBA Advanced Statistics

Before we begin, I have to first introduce a NBA floor chart which I have been working on.

Everything that will be talked about when it comes to advanced statistics revolves around this floor chart. 

Here is the mid-court area of the chart. Notice how the chart flips and reverses itself once the half-court line is crossed.

This was going to be called a "shot chart," but it hit me that this chart can track much more than shooting.

I use it mostly for defense. It can show where a player gets most of his blocks, his rebounds and where he gives up the most points.

Although it is free for anyone to use, for convenience it will be called the "High Basketball IQ Floor Chart."

It is not perfect and not accurate to the exact dimensions of a NBA court; it was created to the best of my limited engineering abilities just to have a visual representation of what I am writing about.

Also, a player a step or two outside of the high post, for example, may be labeled as being in the high post; it won't be an accurate description of where the player is to the exact inch, but you'll get my point.

Another great use of the floor chart is to show players who do or don't get rebounds outside of their area. 

You can look at where the players are when the ball goes in the air, where they are when it hits the rim and where they are when the rebound is secured.

Who moved? And who didn't? And how far did they move? It's great for hustle stats.

Ideally, I would like to use this floor chart to track the movement of the ball and every player for every minute of every game.

But since I don't have anywhere near the resources or the manpower to pull that off, I'll do what I can from in front of my computer.

It should be noted that this article is about to get really nerdy right now, talking about the minute details of various NBA games, so consider yourself warned.

Deflections will be covered first.

A deflection is when a player tips the ball, usually sending it in a different direction.

There are all kinds of deflections, pass deflections, rebound deflections, dribble deflections, you name it.

This is a hustle stat which needs to be accurately tracked because it is a play which a player makes to help his team.

In short, that is what we are shooting for here, the tracking of anything (anything!) which a player does on a basketball court to help his team win.

Sister to the deflection is the recovery.

Either the player who deflected the ball or another player recovers it.

When one player deflects the ball and another player recovers it, each must be given credit for the part they contributed to the play in order to accurately determine the value of each player and the overall ability of the team.

Like deflections, there are many types of recoveries.

There are blocked shot recoveries, saved ball recoveries, rebound deflection recoveries, pass deflection recoveries and many more.

And all should be tracked and recorded so that each player's value to the team can be accurately measured and because every possession counts.

Let's look at a play from the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat game from last season (3:50).

There are 21.9 seconds left in the game. Kobe Bryant drives and misses a layup.

Although what follows looks like nothing more than a wild scrum with no identifiable parts, that is the furthest thing from the truth.

The play's individual parts are actually highly identifiable.

Here is how I would score the play; the best angle is at 4:14:

Missed Layup: Kobe Bryant
Rebound Deflection: Kobe Bryant (O) & Pau Gasol (O) & Udonis Haslem (D)
Missed Rebound: Kobe Bryant
Rebound: Dwyane Wade (D)
Baseline Save: Dwyane Wade
Saved Ball Deflection: Mario Chalmers
Saved Ball Recovery: Pau Gasol
Foul: Quentin Richardson on Pau Gasol.

The scoring format comes from the "Play-By-Play" section of the box scores on NBA.com.

Also, this is being scored as best I can on a computer screen. More details would be seen on a full television screen and might change the scoring some.

Pau Gasol went to the foul line and made both free throws.

The Lakers won the game by one point on a running three-pointer by Kobe Bryant.

Without the hustle and deflections of Pau Gasol and Kobe Bryant saving this possession for the Lakers, they might have lost the game; but we would never know that because there are no statistics for plays like this.

Steals also need to be more specific.

Against the New York Knicks, Kobe Bryant deflects the ball away from Chris Duhon (1:04); and Ron Artest recovers it.

Although both players combined for the steal, Ron Artest got no credit for his contribution to the play.

Is this fair?

Is it an accurate reflection of each player's contribution to the team?

Without Artest picking up the ball, a Knick could have gotten it; then there wouldn't have been any steal at all. What Artest did was very important.

Add up all of these uncredited plays over the course of a season, and it becomes extremely significant. And what about over the course of a career?

When two players combine like this on a steal, they should be given ½ steal (the deflection ½ and the recovery ½) each.

Here is how it should look:

STEALS: K. Bryant: FULL (0); DFL ½ (1); RCR ½ (0); TOTAL (½)
                 R. Artest: FULL (0); DFL ½ (0); RCR ½ (1); TOTAL (½)

"DFL" is short for deflection, "RCR" short for recovery. A "FULL" steal is when one player completes the entire steal by himself.

Now it is time to get really technical.

Steals would also be divided into type.

There are three types of steals: passed ball steals, dribbled ball steals and held ball steals.

Wouldn't it be important to know going into a game against a team which uses its small forward to bring the ball up the court that you have a point guard who can steal dribbles but not passes?

You think his steals might be down that night?

Let's throw in the floor chart and look at one more play, a steal by Jordan Farmar against the Orlando Magic (2:49).

Here is how I would score the play:

Pass Steal: Jordan Farmar, straightaway three-point line (ORL) deflection and right mid-court (LAL) recovery of Jameer Nelson pass from top-right three-point area (ORL) to Ryan Anderson at top-left three-point area (ORL).

Deep Right Paint (LAL) Foul: Ryan Anderson on Jordan Farmar.

The ORL and LAL tell on which offensive half of the court the play takes place.

This scoring method is technical and highly-detailed, but it gives credit where credit is due and gives an accurate accounting of every player's contribution to the team's success, or failure.

In a prior post I wrote that the NBA was in the Stone Ages when it comes to advanced statistics. It looks like that may not be entirely true.

Some of this information is being tracked; it is just not publicly available.

Bill Simmons tried to get some details and wrote a great story on what he would like to know and his journey to find out. Some of the things he asks about are the very same things I am trying to log and account for: winning plays.

Note: I got the idea to use numbers instead of words on my floor chart from this chart on 82games.com. When I went to add the names to the areas of my chart, the names were too long to fit into those tiny little spaces.

Floor chart updated September 2012.

Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com


Saturday, August 14, 2010

Dissecting Pacers vs Lakers And Darren Collison

The Indiana Pacers acquired point guard Darren Collison from the New Orleans Hornets this week.

There have been so many things written this off-season about the Pacers and their need for a point guard that I almost started to believe it.

Then I went back and looked at the game tape.

Since the Los Angeles Lakers have been the best team in the NBA for the past two seasons, and there isn't much video of other teams available, why not start there?

What better way to measure yourself than against the best, right?

The Pacers played the Lakers in Los Angeles on March 2, 2010, and were crushed 122-99. They were also punished at home on January 27, 118-96.

Only the game at Los Angeles will be used, but for those who want to continue dissecting on their own, here is the game at Indiana.

THE FUN BEGINS (:38 on the video player)

UPDATE: 6/10/2011, 12:35 PM

The original video used for this analysis has been removed by the user. You can still see many of the same plays described below but at different times on the video player.

Looking at Dahntay Jones' box score, you would think he had a pretty good game. Looking at the game, you would know otherwise. At :38, the Pacers are ahead 24-20.

Jones allows Kobe Bryant to beat him off the dribble. This forces Troy Murphy to have to come over and help, which leaves Murphy's man Pau Gasol in position to tip in the offensive rebound.

Jones then drives to the basket against Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol and gets his shot blocked. This leads to a transition three-pointer by Jordan Farmar.

After that, while paying too much attention to Bryant being defended by Earl Watson, Jones loses track of his man Farmar, who cuts to the basket and gets a bucket off of a Bryant pass.

Not done yet, Jones then allows Lakers guard Shannon Brown to beat him off the dribble for a runner off the glass. Bryant beating Jones off the dribble could be written off as the best player in the NBA, but how do you explain this?

At 1:12, Jones has the ball taken from him by Shannon Brown. This leads to a fast-break layup by Adam Morrison. The score is now 33-30, Los Angeles.

So the Lakers went on a 13-6 run, and 11 of the 13 points Indiana allowed were directly caused by Dahntay Jones' mistakes. Dahntay Jones does not play point guard.

NEXT UP: COACH JIM O'BRIEN (1:44)

Indiana coach Jim O'Brien foolishly tries to defend Andrew Bynum with Troy Murphy. The result? A catch-and-finish reverse-layup and a back-down dunk. Don't mean to laugh, but this is really funny, literally a comedy of errors.

BRANDON RUSH TAKES HIS TURN (2:04)

Determined to get in on the act, Pacer Brandon Rush gets backed into the paint by Bryant for a left-handed jump-hook. He then commits a turnover which leads to a transition three-pointer by Derek Fisher. At 2:43, Rush again allows Bryant to take him to the basket for two.

DANNY GRANGER TOO (2:49)

Team star Danny Granger actually started his mistakes a while ago. At :20, he gets beaten for a dunk by Ron Artest on a cut to the basket and runs into Earl Watson, who came over to double Pau Gasol, in the process. Again, I don't mean to laugh.

Granger's series of mistakes starts at 2:49. He gets beaten off the dribble by Ron Artest for a layup. At 3:07, Granger holds the ball in front of Artest like Artest hasn't been the best perimeter defender in the NBA for the past decade or more.

As expected, Artest swipes the ball from him. On the play, Kobe Bryant is fouled on a fast-break dunk attempt and makes both free throws. In between the prior two plays, Josh McRoberts proves he can't guard Andrew Bynum either and gets dunked on just like Troy Murphy did.

At 3:28, Dahntay Jones is back again, allowing a turn-around by Ron Artest before Shannon Brown hits a three-pointer on him at 3:46. Danny Granger then again forgets who Ron Artest is and has the ball taken from him and passed to Farmar for an open-court dunk.

DIDIER ILUNGA-MBENGA (4:11)

To put the icing on the cake, Roy Hibbert allows Didier Ilunga-Mbenga to hit a turn-around jumper on him, not Pau Gasol, not Andrew Bynum, not Lamar Odom, Didier Ilunga-Mbenga.

INDIVIDUAL PLUS/MINUS OR IPM

The Pacers lost this game by 23 points. Let's add up the individual plus/minuses and see what happens.

Dahntay Jones, -16: Gasol offensive rebound (-2); Farmar three-pointer (-3); Farmar cut to basket (-2); Shannon Brown runner (-2); Morrison layup (-2); Artest turn-around (-2); Brown three-pointer (-3).

Troy Murphy, -4; Josh McRoberts, -2; or Jim O'Brien and/or Larry Bird, -6: Bynum reverse-layup (-2); Bynum dunk (-2); Bynum dunk (-2).

It looks like coach O'Brien didn't have a choice but to defend Bynum with Murphy and McRoberts with Hibbert in foul trouble. The Pacers don't have the big men to defend the Lakers, blame who you want.

Brandon Rush, -7: Bryant jump-hook (-2); Fisher three-pointer (-3); Bryant drive (-2).

Danny Granger, -8: Artest dunk (-2); Artest layup (-2); Artest steal leading to Bryant free throws (-2); Artest steal leading to Farmar dunk (-2).

Roy Hibbert, -2: Mbenga turn-around (-2).

As you can plainly see, not one of the errors in this comedy of errors was committed by a point guard, although I am certain they made their fair share of mistakes too.

You have to win with the team you have, so the fact that the Pacers don't have the big men to match up with the Lakers is no excuse. Miami and Charlotte didn't have the big men either, but they went 2-2 against Los Angeles.

Indiana could have won this game by simply eliminating mistakes. Dahntay Jones alone accounts for almost the entire point differential (-16 for him to -23 for the game).

So instead of blaming the point guard or blaming the big men, the Pacers could (1) play better defense, (2) play Jones fewer minutes or cut him, (3) make sure Danny Granger gets and/or pays attention to and/or remembers a good scouting report and (4) take better care of the basketball.

This also is the perfect example of why I support plus/minus based on individual and not five-man-unit performance when evaluating individual players.*

It is not the fault of the other Pacers on the court with Dahntay Jones that he made so many mistakes. Why should they have their ratings dragged down by his play?

And why should anyone other than Danny Granger lose two plus/minus points because he had the ball stolen from him by Ron Artest? Contrary to what the Indiana Pacers bloggers and sportswriters will tell you, it wasn't Earl Watson's fault; he was all the way on the other side of the court.

So all of you Pacers fans and others celebrating the trade for Darren Collison, you better wake up and smell the coffee. When Larry Bird says he's note done, he means it! And he better not be done, not with this team.

I picked Indiana to be one of the most improved teams this year and will stick to it. This was before they got Darren Collison. Collison helps because every good team needs two point guards, but he is no savior.

The Pacers' only hope right now is No. 10 pick Paul George. The Pacers better hope and pray he is as good as advertised, otherwise ... more Shakespearean (writer of The Comedy of Errors) theater.


Note: It is understood that these are Lakers highlights and don't tell the full story of the game. It is also fully understood that scoring games is subjective; one man's base hit is another man's error. But as the old saying goes, I call them like I see them. Finally, I tried to include only the most obvious errors and mistakes; so you may see something which I didn't include.

*Updated 2-16-2012, 8:40 AM to add the words "when evaluating individual players."



Sunday, July 25, 2010

Golden State Signs Warrior Jeremy Lin

The troubled franchise known as the Golden State Warriors may finally be headed in the right direction. With one playoff appearance in the past 16 seasons, things look to be turning around.

The Warriors signed free agent point guard Jeremy Lin this week.

Not to go all Bill Walton here, but this might be the greatest transaction in the history of the franchise because the Warriors literally stole a lottery pick off of another team's summer league roster.

Jeremy Lin should have been the second point guard taken in the 2010 NBA Draft, maybe the first.

He went toe-to-toe with No. 1 overall pick John Wall in summer league in Las Vegas and at the very least held his own. Lin is a better defender and has a much higher basketball IQ than Wall does at this point.

I never heard of Jeremy Lin before summer league, but looking at his incredible highlights and statistics from Harvard, there is no way he should have fallen past pick number 20, much less gone undrafted.

And pick number 20 is being conservative.

Here is video from the fourth quarter of Lin's game against John Wall, and this is video of Lin against Sacramento.

Two plays should be pointed out here: In the college highlights Lin steals a pass from and scores over Georgetown center Greg Monroe (2:37); and in the Sacramento highlights Lin gets a steal and scores over Kings big man DeMarcus Cousins (1:59).

Cousins and Monroe were the 5th and 7th picks in the draft.

Jeremy Lin also stole the ball from and scored over No. 15 pick Larry Sanders of the Milwaukee Bucks (:26), who averaged 3.2 blocks per game in summer league. He later takes the ball away from Sanders again (1:22).

In short, Lin makes play after play on four of the top 15 picks in the draft and three of the top seven.

There is no doubt that Jeremy Lin is NBA-ready.

He has everything a team should look for in a basketball player, and with Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis, he gives the Warriors one of the best guard rotations in the NBA.

To play with franchise players Curry and Ellis, the Warriors acquired power forward David Lee from the New York Knicks and signed free-agent small forward Dorell Wright from the Miami Heat.

Wright had some big moments for the Heat in the playoffs last year against the Celtics, particularly in Game 3.

Signing Wright might not be the same as Orlando plucking Tracy McGrady from the Toronto Raptors, but it could come close. And David Lee is one of the most underrated players in the league.

Golden State looks to be headed in the right direction and might make the playoffs this season.

This is video of a news story about Lin by a local TV station and his interview for the team website.


Sunday, July 18, 2010

Scottie Pippen: Ultimate Defender

There are two great videos on the internet showcasing Scottie Pippen and his "ultimate" defense.

They are called Scottie Pippen: Ultimate Defender and Scottie Pippen: Ultimate Defender II.

Watching these videos is a mind-blowing experience. We all know Scottie Pippen was great, but his defensive highlights reveal that he was even greater than first thought.

By the end of the Bulls' second three-peat people were saying that Scottie Pippen might be the second-best player in the NBA. Looking at these videos makes it hard to argue against it.

Pippen literally puts on a defensive clinic from start to finish, and these videos alone could be used to teach basketball players how to play defense.

All you have to do is show the videos and say, "Play like this!"

Pippen displays every characteristic--intelligence, toughness, tenacity, intensity, focus, competitiveness, resilience, versatility, conditioning, footwork, skill, everything!--which a coach would want in a player in any sport.

It is well known that Scottie Pippen was a great defender, but seeing all of these defensive highlights back-to-back on one reel brings a different level of understanding ... WOW!

Scottie Pippen has never gotten his due for how great he actually was.

A lot of it has to do with the offensive bias in judging greatness, but these videos show that great defensive play is just as important as great offensive play when it comes to impacting basketball games.

It is crazy how disruptive he was and how he completely dismantled everything which the opposing team's offense tried to put together, and I mean everything!

Guarding every position on the floor, from point guard to center, he was simply a menace.

While we're at it, lets look at one of Scottie Pippen's finest moments, his performance in Game 6 of the 1993 Eastern Conference finals against the New York Knicks.

And for a real trip down memory lane, here are some Bulls highlights from the Game 5 classic against the Knicks in 1993, including Pippen's multiple rejections against Charles Smith to save the game in the final seconds.

Also of note from Game 5, check out Doc Rivers daydreaming and ball-watching (5:13) as Scottie Pippen sneaks up from behind him and sets a screen on him which gets Rivers' man BJ Armstrong open for the game-winning three-pointer.