A Look Around The NBA

I tried to put together a list of top free agents yesterday and ran into a huge problem.

I couldn't do it.

This is my top five: (1) Tyson Chandler, (2) Marc Gasol, (3) Samuel Dalembert, (4) TJ Ford and (5) Jeff Green.

The list was based on making myself the general manager of a NBA team trying to put together a group to win a championship and listing the guys in the order that I would try to sign them.

But what about Oklahoma City?

There is no way they would go after Chandler when they already have Serge Ibaka, who does essentially the same thing.

Marc Gasol would be their first choice.

As I looked through the rest of the 15 guys, I saw this same thing everywhere.

You can't definitively rank individual players. You have to know the teammates they will be playing with and the coach they will be playing for.

I ended up scrapping the list and killing the story.

Mike Prada completely disrespected DeShawn Stevenson and himself last week when he wrote that there are "plenty" of guys in the D-League who can fill in for Stevenson in a pinch.

He deserves a $1,000 fine and a one-week suspension for lack of basketball knowledge.

Reducing Stevenson's contributions to threes and D is insulting and makes me wonder what games Prada was watching, not to mention that Stevenson's threes and defense were against the best players and teams and on the biggest stage the game has to offer.

I'll let Tyson Chandler, someone who knows what he is talking about, describe some of the other things Stevenson provided Dallas.

In short, Chandler is saying Stevenson knows how to play basketball.

Knowing how to play the game may be a "minimal" contribution in Prada's eyes, but it's invaluable to this little thing called "winning."

Being unselfish and a total team player? Means nothing. Minimal contributions.

And Chandler forgot to mention that Stevenson can bring the ball up the floor and initiate the offense, like he did at times during their playoff run.

Zach Lowe, in a wildly inaccurate and reckless statement, wrote that Mike Bibby "can't guard anyone." Lowe should know better.

Ask Rajon Rondo about Mike Bibby's defense.

And ask Derrick Rose. Bibby played so well against Rose that even the player-haters at Heat Index had to give it up to him for his defense.

Bibby did struggle against JJ Barea in the Finals, and I can't explain his playoff-long shooting slump, but to write that he can't guard anyone is false and irresponsible.

If Lowe made that statement on the witness stand, he would be prosecuted for lying under oath.

Finally, David Kahn made the news again.

Not that he actually did anything, so the best way to put it would be that the media made David Kahn make the news again.

Kahn fired Kurt Rambis, but apparently there are standing orders at every media outlet that no story about Kahn can be written without portraying him in the worst possible light.

So the narrative developed that Kahn took too long and is some sort of bad guy for not firing Rambis three months ago.

Whatever.

As far as I'm concerned, anyone towing the "David Kahn is a buffoon/bad guy" company line is a peon.

Fortunately for you, I am my own man; so you'll never have to worry about me following the crowd or being bullied into writing something I don't truly believe.

It's one of the many perks of being independent.

Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Mavericks And Heat: NBA Finals Preview

It must first be pointed out that I have been a strong supporter of both teams from the very beginning.

I may be the only sportswriter in America who named Dallas as a contender before the season started.

And while everybody had Miami as a contender, not all of them stuck with Miami after they started 9-8 like I did.

I have been all over both coaches (Rick Carlisle criticism, Erik Spoelstra criticism) because they both deserved it based on the decisions they were making at the time.

But never did I back off my claim that each team had the talent to win it all.

The closest I came to writing Miami off was when Boston traded for Jeff Green, but after Miami countered by signing Mike Bibby I put them back in the game and gave them a near 50-50 shot to win the East.

I still think a fully-healthy Boston is the best team in the East, but as we all know with injuries, sugar-honey-iced-tea happens.

And going all the way back to September, I never liked Chicago as a legitimate contender because of the limited amount of talent on their roster, though I gave them an equal chance to win the conference finals because anything can happen.

As far as me questioning Spoelstra's ability to lead Miami to a championship, it's amazing how much better a coach can look once a few extra guys start contributing.

With Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller knocking down shots and snatching rebounds, Spoelstra suddenly looks like Red Auerbach.

Other than his disastrous decision to try to play small ball against Chicago in Game 1 and LeBron James' heavy minutes, I have little problem with anything he did in the conference finals.

He has the Cadillac on cruise control right now, with the AC blowing, listening to some Al Green or something.

With Miami in position to win it all, as they told everyone they would, other writers are coming to grips with the sad reality that the man and the team they love to hate could be hoisting a championship trophy soon; and it's not sitting well with them.

As I said before, I couldn't care less about "The Decision."

I wouldn't give a damn if LeBron James went on national television and announced his decision to leave Cleveland while talking out of his ass like Jim Carrey in Ace Ventura: Pet Detective.

It has nothing to do with basketball.

I cover the game, not the soap opera, the petty gossip and the ridiculous nonsense outside of the game, like "The Decision," James' mother getting arrested, Allen Iverson's Lambo getting impounded, how many children someone has out of wedlock or who Kris Humphries or anybody else is dating.

It's asinine.

And I thought Miami's introduction was fun and entertaining.

What else was I supposed to do in July? Watch baseball?

I haven't made any predictions in the playoffs so far and won't do so in this series.

Each team has advantages and disadvantages which could go either way when they collide against each other over the course of several games, and which way they will go is anybody's guess.

Both teams have a legitimate chance to win it all, and I can't tell you what the deciding factors will be in determining which team that will be.

But it should be fun to watch and find out.

Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd and Dallas are the good guys.

LeBron James and Miami are the villains, the Evil Empire.

Will Dallas be able to fend off Miami and save everything which is good and pure about basketball?

Or will LeBron James and Dwyane Wade lead the NBA to hell in a hand-basket of super teams and big-market or warm-weather monopolies?

Tune in Tuesday at 9:00 to find out as two teams from opposite parts of the country battle for the future of the NBA.

I don't really believe that, but it's how the series is being billed by some people.

Note: This is an article I wrote on the valuable lesson I learned after picking Detroit and other teams to do well and watching their disappointing play during the season.

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Spoelstra Survives

Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra made it past the second round and did it quite easily thanks in part to some fortuitous injuries to key members of the Boston Celtics.

I was critical of him heading into the second round for a few reasons that I didn't fully detail at the time.

My main problem with Spoelstra's coaching is that it looks like he is letting Tom Haberstroh and the guys at Heat Index coach the Miami Heat.

Haberstroh has been critical of Miami's starting five.

He planted the seed about Miami's starting lineup featuring Mike Bibby and Zydrunas Ilgauskas near the end of the regular season and started beating the drum during the Philadelphia series.

The next thing you know, Bibby and Ilgauskas were benched four minutes into Game 5 against Philadelphia, never to return.

All of a sudden, Bibby and Ilgauskas were Siamese twins, linked in a joint performance where their value couldn't be determined individually but only in concert with one another.

Spoelstra didn't take the time to see which one was the problem.

He reacted quickly and benched both in what looked like a move to appease his critics more than anything else.

But it turns out Haberstroh hadn't done his full research.

The Bibby-gauskas twins weren't the problem at all; it was Ilgauskas alone. And Haberstroh had some more numbers to back it up.

It so happened that Miami was lethal when Mike Bibby and Joel Anthony played together with Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh, even against Philadelphia and going back to the regular season.

In there was this astonishing statistical nugget: That unit had played only nine minutes together against Philadelphia and only 35 minutes together during the season.

Haberstroh released this story before the Miami series against Boston.

Four games into the series, Spoelstra was reacting again, this time removing Ilgauskas from the starting lineup in favor of Anthony.

There are two problems here, the incomplete information it looked like Spoelstra reacted to the first time and the fact that he had a strong lineup which he hadn't yet discovered.

Isn't Erik Spoelstra the coach of the Miami Heat?

Shouldn't he know who his best units and players are without me (see Joel Anthony) or someone else having to tell him?

Isn't that what he is paid for?

And how is he going to lead a team to a championship when he can't filter good information from bad in making the best decisions for his team?

Every team Miami faces isn't going to be as small as Philadelphia or as injury-riddled as Boston. At some point Spoelstra is going to have to win some games against some legitimate competition.

And when that time comes, I'm still not sure that he'll be able to get it done.

Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Thoughts From Around The Web

The first order of business is to clear up one thing: the definition of small ball.

Charlie at the Roundball Mining Company described Denver's lineup featuring Ty Lawson and Raymond Felton as "small ball."

I often write about small ball, so I have to define what I mean to avoid confusion with his words here.

Just to be clear, when I use the term "small ball" I am referring only to the power forward and center positions and not any others.

I'm not talking about point guard, shooting guard or small forward or anything else, only power forward and center.

That crucial point must be made to stay on the same page.

Is the difference between regular-season and playoff basketball a myth or a reality?

Rob Mahoney thinks it is a myth. Zach Lowe thinks it is a reality.

You can put me squarely in the reality camp, and anyone who's watched the playoffs so far should agree.

Tom Ziller thinks we can't judge NBA coaches.

The guys over at ESPN fully disagree. They spent an entire section judging some coaches and their performances so far.

While he doesn't think you can judge coaches, Ziller had no problem judging general manager David Kahn and comparing him to an avocado.

Finally, I'm all for giving credit where credit is due; but Sebastian Pruiti gave credit where none was due.

Pruiti tries to credit Tom Thibodeau for Derrick Rose's game-winner at the end of Game 3 in Indiana, writing that Thibodeau had Rose penetrate to the side of the floor where his two best shooters were.

It would have been a great story, if only it were true.

Watching the play, you can clearly see that the play was supposed to go to the opposite side, where Chicago's worst shooters were.

But Roy Hibbert jumped out and blocked Derrick Rose's path.

That forced Rose to improvise, and that improvisation led Rose to the side of the court where his best shooters were, not Tom Thibodeau.

Tom Thibodeau didn't make the play. Derrick Rose did.

But don't let the facts get in the way of a good story.

Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Dunks, Drive-Ins And Dives

At what point does Boston start worrying about its backup centers Jermaine and Shaquille O'Neal?

Rasheed Wallace played a huge role for this team in the playoffs last year, and these two guys were supposed to replace him.

Instead, we are left with Semih Erden.

The O'Neals are going to have to perform at the highest level, not only with their physical conditioning but with their knowledge and execution of the team concepts, with their teammates to win a championship.

It's looking more and more challenging as each day passes with each of them missing time due to various injuries.

The Milwaukee Bucks might be the most interesting story down the stretch.

They are 1.5 games out of eighth place in the East (5.5 games from sixth place) and are starting to get their players back.

They could have a full roster by the end of March, including Michael Redd and Drew Gooden.

I've been very critical of Al Jefferson, but I have to give him credit for some plays he made last night against Denver.

He made 1 ½ crucial stops as a help defender on Carmelo Anthony in the final 3:30 to help Utah get the victory.

Lack of help defense for years has been one of his biggest weaknesses.

It was a great job by Jefferson of playing tough defense when his team needed it most.


THE BLACK MAMBA

Henry Abbott released some numbers last week which, at least in his mind, finally proved once and for all that Kobe Bryant isn't as clutch as some think he is.

The funny thing is (I'll pretend I don't know why here), for some strange reason the numbers run all the way back to 1996, when Bryant was a rookie who barely played.

As I remember it, Bryant didn't become clutch until 2000, when he hit the game-winner to beat Phoenix in Game 2 of the first round of the playoffs and had that heroic Game 4 at Indiana in the Finals.

The raw numbers Abbott provides really don't mean much. In order to know what to make of this, we need to see the split statistics.

We need to know what Bryant shot in every game, every year against every opponent.

For all we know, Kobe Bryant could be shooting 80 percent against the best teams in the NBA and have all of his misses against the worst teams because they are harder to get motivated to play against.

And for all we know, he could be more clutch as his team advances further into the playoffs, peaking in the NBA Finals when he is at his absolute best.

But we don't know any of this because the splits aren't provided.

And we still don't know what Kobe Bryant shoots in game-winning situations in the last 10 seconds, with game-tying information removed from the data.

An article came out this season showing Carmelo Anthony was the best in game-winning or game-tying situations at .455, and Bryant had the most game-winners with 21, but Bryant's percentage wasn't provided.

Abbott wrote about Bryant's game-winners last season and gave some information which showed that Bryant has been awfully impressive recently. So it certainly appears that the numbers are trending in Bryant's direction.

But without the splits, there is just no way to tell one way or the other.


FOSTER KIDS

A funny thing happens when you predict a team to do well.

Because we all want to be right, you sort of adopt that team as your foster team and root for them to win; so they can make you look good.

And let me tell you, rooting for these teams has been such a gut-wrenching roller coaster of emotions that I don't know what to do with myself.

John Kuester fumbled the start of the season by not playing Greg Monroe as much as he should have, and at the start of the season Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince weren't playing with enough passion.

Minnesota had me on the high part of the roller coaster during the preseason. Then Martell Webster had to have back surgery and miss the start of the season.

Jonny Flynn's mid-November return from off-season surgery turned into mid-December.

In between, about every player on the roster had to miss time with injuries.

Darko Milicic sprained his ankle one game on the opening tip.

Anthony Tolliver is a 12th man who takes shot attempts like he's the franchise player. And Kurt Rambis keeps giving him playing time.

As soon as Los Angeles got cooking, Eric Gordon hurt his wrist and hasn't played since.

Jim O'Brien barely played Tyler Hansbrough and benched Paul George for almost two months, and TJ Ford has played a total of 10 minutes in the past nine games.

New coach Frank Vogel has Dahntay Jones higher in his rotation than James Posey, a highly-underrated basketball player with two championship rings, and has AJ Price higher in his rotation than TJ Ford.

Keith Smart just won't stop playing Vladimir Radmanovic at power forward.

Golden State assigned Jeremy Lin to the development league even though in his last action against actual NBA players, Golden State trailed 70-75 when he entered the game; and the score was tied 96-96 when he left it.

And even though Kevin Durant tried to score on him two times when Golden State played Oklahoma City and ended up with nothing but a turnover and a ball deflected out of bounds.

David Lee let the unstoppable Boris Diaw muscle him in the post, along with David West and just about everybody else.

The price we pay to be correct.

Like real foster kids, these teams drive you crazy because they are bad as hell. But you love them anyway because you adopted them, so they are yours.


GLAD TO BE WRONG

About the only time I enjoy being wrong is when a player or team turns out to be better than I thought they would.

And that is the case with the Toronto Raptors.

In my "Eastern Conference Preview" I suggested that their original, expansion roster might be more talented than their current one.

And while praising Jose Calderon in "The NBA's Best Point Guards," I called them a cast of "scrubs, losers, cast-offs and wannabes."

I got this one wrong.

I have an iron-clad rule when it comes to losing teams: at least be entertaining.

And Toronto is fun to watch.

DeMar DeRozan and Sonny Weems get after it on pretty much a nightly basis, and Andrea Bargnani can light it up at any given moment.

Because of injuries, they are not nearly as bad as their record indicates.

There is a future in Toronto.

Note: Al Jefferson was given a stop for drawing an offensive foul on Carmelo Anthony and ½ of a stop for his blocked shot on Anthony. Raja Bell got the other ½ of a stop for recovering the blocked shot.

For more information on how to figure stops and fractional stops, see my article on advanced defensive statistics.

Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Contender

When Caron Butler went down with a knee injury it looked like any chance Dallas had of winning a championship this season went down with him.

But they went out and signed Peja Stojakovic this week.

Stojakovic is a better fit for Dallas than Butler and should keep Dallas right on track to contend for a title.

Having Dirk Nowitzki and Peja Stojakovic on the same team is almost like cheating it is so unfair. And to think that a team with all that Dallas has isn't the favorite to win it all is mind blowing.

These are truly the glory days of the NBA.

Have you ever seen someone lose an entire game by himself?

Monta Ellis came about as close as you can come in a team sport last night against Charlotte.

With Golden State leading 98-90 with 1:30 to play Ellis failed to box out Gerald Henderson on three straight possessions.

Henderson's offensive rebounds resulted in a Gerald Wallace three-pointer, a Kwame Brown layup and a missed put-back by Henderson himself.

On the next possession, Ellis was called for a foul on a Stephen Jackson three-point attempt, costing his team three more points.

To top it off, Ellis missed a free throw with 15.9 seconds remaining which allowed Jackson to send the game into overtime when he banked in a three with .6 seconds left.

After the game, Golden State was wondering how they lost.

It's simple: They failed to execute the fundamentals.


THE BIG BAG OF CHIPS

Tim Duncan knows a thing or two about the fundamentals.

He'll be attempting to win his fifth championship this season, and you can put me squarely in the camp which says he's not going to be able to pull it off.

This isn't a knock on Duncan.

Tim Duncan is all of that and two bags of chips, but San Antonio is playing with fire by going into the playoffs with only one shot-blocker on the roster.

Duncan is blocking shots at a rate he hasn't achieved in years, 2 in 29.4 minutes. No other Spur averages more than .5.

Suppose Duncan gets two quick fouls in a Game 7 against Los Angeles or is in foul trouble the entire game.

It would completely destroy any hope San Antonio has of winning a title.

San Antonio should most definitely be in the market for another big man like Samuel Dalembert to help Tim Duncan make a run through the playoffs.

On the positive side for San Antonio, it is an odd-numbered year.


ROOKIES

Never count on a NBA coach to help you with your prediction.

Seeing how these guys operate, it's easy to understand how Phil Jackson has run circles around them for the past 20 years.

Most coaches in the NBA can't even identify the best players on their own team and put together a solid rotation, so how they think they are going to compete with a basketball genius is beyond me.

Some extremely talented rookies have barely gotten off the bench this year and have had their growth and development blockaded by coaches who for one reason or another refuse to play them.

Others cracked rotations weeks or months later than they should have.

Those who have played and gotten decent minutes are starting to show what they are made of, at least in some cases.

Evan Turner, DeMarcus Cousins, Greg Monroe, Paul George and Trevor Booker are all starting to show they belong.

Look out for the Rookie Challenge during All-Star Weekend. It may be the only chance you get to see some of these guys play.


THANKS FOR NOTHING

Jonny Flynn had his best game in his return from off-season hip surgery against the Clippers on January 19.

He had more assists and steals (and turnovers, but who's counting?) than he'd had all season and for the first time started to look like the player Minnesota drafted in 2009.

And what thanks did he get?

For the next two days he had to read how terrible he is. Michael Rand kicked off the bash-fest on Thursday, and Anthony Maggio and Patrick Donnelly put it into high gear on Friday.

Flynn played the first month of his comeback at about 80-85 percent and was not sharp from having missed all of training camp and the start of the season.

It's hard enough to compete in the NBA when you are 100 percent and on top of your game, so it's not very productive or useful to evaluate someone as he recovers from an injury.

Just ask Dirk Nowitzki.

He didn't have surgery or miss training camp or the start of the season, but look at how difficult it has been for him to regain his form after missing about three weeks with a knee injury.

And he's not the only one.

Kevin Garnett, David Lee and others have missed time this season and didn't exactly pick up where they left off when they returned.

Getting into the paint off the dribble is a major part of Flynn's game and is what will help turn Minnesota around when he finally gets healthy.

According to Hoopdata, Jonny Flynn attempted a shot at the rim every 7.8 minutes he played last season. Through the first 17 games of his comeback this season he averaged a shot at the rim every 41 minutes he played.

And 31.4 percent of Flynn's shot attempts came at the rim last season compared to 8 percent this season.

On the court, you can see that he's just not all the way back yet even though has gotten much better in recent games.

You'll know that Jonny Flynn is fully recovered when you see him driving into the paint to find open teammates and do things like this.

Note: Hoopdata keeps tracking all games, but the numbers used to calculate Flynn's shots at the rim this season are through his first 17 games only. The game against Los Angeles was his 18th.

Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Van Gundy's Star Call

During Game 3 of the Boston Celtics' first-round playoff series against the Miami Heat, there was a play where Rajon Rondo got an offensive rebound and made a play for his team.

Dwyane Wade was the Miami Heat player responsible for keeping Rondo off the glass on that play. This was during a sequence when Rondo was murdering Miami with offensive rebounds.

In analyzing the play during the ABC telecast of the game, Jeff Van Gundy talked about how Wade wasn't paying as much attention to Rondo as "maybe" he should.

Maybe?!

Rondo was killing the Heat with these offensive rebounds! A strong argument can be made that those offensive rebounds were the entire difference in the game.

Dwyane Wade absolutely, beyond any shadow of a doubt, should have been paying more attention to Rondo; and there is no "maybe" about it.

But because Dwyane Wade is a superstar, or "maybe" because he likes Dwyane Wade, Jeff Van Gundy softened his criticism and didn't call Wade out like he was supposed to for failing to box out.

In the NBA, it appears that officials aren't the only ones who make "star" calls.

Correction: On the play where Van Gundy says "maybe," Rondo didn't secure the offensive rebound and make a play for his team; he beat Wade to the ball but was unable to control it, and the ball went out of bounds to the Heat (8:15). The play where Wade failed to box out Rondo and might have cost his team the victory is at 5:18.

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