SPS: The Holy Grail

In writing about DeShawn Stevenson a while back I leaked my most top-secret player evaluation tool.

I had no idea what would happen after I leaked the information, but since that time at least one well-known writer has silently slipped the tool into his player-evaluation toolbox.

So now that the cat is out of the bag, I might as well go ahead a release the entire system.

It is called situational performance splits, or SPS.

SPS is the reason why I keep praising Baron Davis while others keep ripping him and why I had TJ Ford rated as my top free-agent point guard before I did away with the list.

Any good player evaluation system should look to find players who will lead their teams to championships.

And SPS does that by paying less attention to games which take place outside of championship environments and focusing more on players and how they perform against the best players and best teams and in the biggest games.

And if it involves the final two minutes of a one-possession game, that's even better.

Whenever I'm watching games and breaking down players I pay very close attention to the following things, which make up the essence of SPS.


INDIVIDUAL MATCHUP

After a team reaches the second round of the playoffs, you can pretty much bet that the teams are going to be loaded with the best players in the league.

In order to know if a guy can lead a team past this point, you have to know how he performs against the best players in the league at his position.

So whenever you're watching games, pay particular attention to specific matchups against top players. And at the very least you want to see specific matchups against very good players.

Some guys are better on one side of the court.

In these cases, for example, you would want to watch how a small forward plays on offense against Ron Artest and Tony Allen and on defense against Carmelo Anthony and Paul Pierce to get an idea of what he is capable of in big games.

Carmelo Anthony is someone who scores highly on my board.

For all of the stat-geek criticism, Anthony sports a 10-1 career record against Kevin Durant and a 9-4 career record against LeBron James.

And based on the swag and audacity Anthony plays with when he plays against James, I would never know James was the better player.

Anthony goes hard at James like James is some scrub in a pickup game at Rucker Park.

And that's what you look for in these individual matchups, guys who don't back down against the best competition.

And guys who are productive and win against the best competition and relish the opportunity to go against it rate highly in SPS.

It must also be pointed out that good performance is very much a product of good coaching and good teammates.

To find out why someone is underperforming you may have to look beyond his individual shortcomings and look at the coach he's playing for, the system he's playing in and the teammates he's playing with.


TEAM MATCHUP

The next thing you want to look at is team matchup.

Specifically, you want to see how someone does on offense against the best defensive teams and how they do on defense against the best offensive teams and how they do against the teams with the best records and coaches in the NBA.

All information against teams like Minnesota and New Jersey must be excluded.

Based on last year's coaches, rosters and records the following teams would be of best use: Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Los Angeles, Miami, Oklahoma City and San Antonio.

And of course, things change.

Denver, Memphis and Portland were all on fire toward the end of the season. And Oklahoma City played much better after Kendrick Perkins and Nazr Mohammed were integrated into the lineup.

So games against those teams during that time would be useful as well.

But I wouldn't go much further than that because you start getting into serious mediocrity at the coaching and/or talent levels after that point.


GAME MAGNITUDE

All games are not created equally. Some games are simply bigger than others.

And SPS looks to identify those big games and draw more conclusions from them than the other games on the schedule.

What is at stake here?

That is what you want to find out in determining the magnitude of a game.

Is it a NBA championship? A series? A division title or playoff berth? A reputation? Nothing?

It goes without saying that in order to win it all a team is going to have to win some big games, and at least some of them on the road.

And you can't win big games without big-game players.

As best as I could I built a list of the biggest games, in order of importance:


1. NBA Finals games
2. Conference finals games
3. Second round playoff games
4. First round playoff games
5. Elimination games
6. Playoff position games during the last few weeks of the season
7. Games after the All-Star break
8. Games against top teams and players
9. Playoff position games before the last few weeks of the season
10. Road games, especially those in hostile environments
11. Games during long winning streaks (in general, 10 or more wins)
12. Games on national television


Some of those categories blend into one another.

In short, what you're trying to do is turn the pressure, the intensity, the competition and the attention levels way up to get them to match what someone will face as he tries to win deeper in the playoffs.

And playoff games clearly get bigger the further you go into a series, with game seven of the NBA Finals being the biggest game possible.

Watching guys under these circumstances tells you all you need to know about them.

Coaches too.


GAME SITUATION

When I say game situation I am obviously talking about the clutch, the last two minutes of one-possession games.

Getting back to TJ Ford, he led Indiana to a win over the Lakers in Los Angeles six days after beating the Heat in Miami. And Baron Davis also has a few wins over the Lakers and Heat (one with the lowly Cavaliers) on his resume from last season.

Ford led the charge in Indiana's win over Los Angeles by flawlessly executing clutch plays down the stretch.

His play was what basketball is all about.

Let's take a look at the SPS factors and try to put some sort of value on the win.

There are some qualifiers.

Andrew Bynum didn't play. He was matched up individually against Steve Blake, who isn't a very good player. Although it clearly became a big game by the end, this wasn't a big game for Los Angeles coming in.

So you could say Indiana was able to sneak up on them and catch them by surprise with their strong play. And because it was so early in the season and the teams' records so far apart, there was very little at stake.

All that being said, this was still a significant accomplishment.

TJ Ford led lowly Indiana to a victory over the two-time defending world champion Los Angeles Lakers by outdueling Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol in the clutch, on their home floor.

I don't have a problem with that victory.

In addition, Ford led Texas to the Final Four in college and took Milwaukee and Toronto (Milwaukee and Toronto!) to the playoffs two times each.

And there is no doubt he would have helped Indiana to the playoffs with a much better record last season had he not been benched in the middle of the season for no good reason.

Mike Bibby is the only one who can match Ford's level of accomplishment among free-agent point guards, but Ford is younger than Bibby and significantly more athletic.

And that is my ultimate player evaluation tool, and it is the Holy Grail of player evaluation systems.

So when you read my work and see that I seem to be speaking a different language and operating on a different wavelength than others who cover the NBA, now you'll know why.

We are looking at two totally different things, at least.

I put little stock in 82-game performance. I put my stock in situational performance and try to pick the situations which most resemble championship caliber.

And I seek out and praise players who excel in those situations, among others.

Note: HBIQ is notorious for jinxing players and teams.

So now that I have big-upped Carmelo Anthony, Baron Davis and TJ Ford don't be surprised if they totally flame out and suck beyond all recognition for the rest of their careers.

But don't let that discourage you from using the system.

It works fine as long as I'm not the one issuing the praise.

Carmelo Anthony's career record against Kevin Durant was posted by Sarcastic on Inside Hoops. His records against Durant and LeBron James are from Basketball Reference.

And TJ Ford had Milwaukee in the playoffs during his rookie season before he got injured and missed the rest of the season. Milwaukee went on to make the playoffs without him.

I counted that in his favor because there is little doubt they would have done the same with him healthy and in the lineup.

Some of the additional Ford information I learned from Mark Medina.

To wrap it up, I would like to say that I am only one man and can't possibly keep track of all of this information by myself.

But I do the best I can with what I have.

Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Coming Home: 'Melo, Diddy And Dirty Money

This is it!

Some things just grow on you.

I saw this video a few days ago and wasn't crazy about it. But after surfing the net for several days I ran back across it and was blown away.

The song is "Coming Home" by Diddy and Dirty Money.

And the basketball is Carmelo Anthony and the New York Knicks.

It was made before the playoffs, so Anthony's big games against Boston aren't on there.

But never have a song and a situation been so perfect for each other.

And the way it is all put together is a sight to behold.

Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Carmelo And Jay-Z: Empire State Of Mind

You wouldn't believe how hard it is to find a good highlight reel.

And for some reason, some players don't have anything out there while others have enough for themselves and five other guys.

Carmelo Anthony has quite a few, but they don't measure up in one way or another, so I'm still waiting for that perfect one.

You would think that with all of the filmmakers in New York that something more would be out there, but there isn't.

This is something to hold you over until that knockout mix comes.

It's a Carmelo Anthony reel to "Empire State of Mind" by Jay-Z and Alicia Keys.

It's a little short (under two minutes). That's my only problem with it.

The song has explicit lyrics.

Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com

Instant Analysis: Anthony To The Big Apple

Isiah did it, baby!

No, I'm just kidding. My first reaction to this trade is that I'm glad it's over!

One week is about all of the emotional energy I have to spend on a trade rumor. And this Carmelo Anthony nonsense has been going on for about a year now.

As much as I tried to escape it and tune it out, I couldn't because every time I looked up someone was writing or talking about it; so I'm just really glad it's finally over!

I usually try to avoid snap judgments on moves like this because my initial reaction will always change one week later. But I'll go ahead and say something in the moment for a change.

A few days ago, when it started looking like the trade to New York was really going to happen, I started doing my due diligence. I went back and looked at film on Anthony, Amar'e Stoudemire, Anthony Randolph, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari and others and reviewed some stats.

Carmelo Anthony is really good.

Most people will say "duh" to that statement, but going all the way back to the 2003 draft, I've never been all that high on him compared to other stars in the league.

There was a brief time, at the start of the 2006-07 season, that he caught my attention and looked like the greatest player I had ever seen. Then he got suspended for sucker-punching Mardy Collins and never really got back to that level of play and hasn't been on my radar since.

But he has game.

My only criticisms of him are defensive. He loses track of his man from time to time when playing off the ball, and as Zach Lowe pointed out, his constant switching on defense can be described as somewhat lazy.

Other than that (and not addressing the shame of him not playing his entire career with the same team), what a steal!

To think that the Knicks gave up "too much" to get Carmelo Anthony is ludicrous.

Are you kidding me? Have you looked at this roster?

Without giving up Stoudemire, it would be impossible for New York to give up too much to get Anthony.

New York could have traded their entire roster other than Amar'e Stoudemire and invited people to walk in off the streets for open tryouts at Madison Square Garden to fill out the rest of the team, and they still wouldn't have given up too much to get Anthony.

This team is 28-26 and struggling to survive at the bottom half of the Eastern Conference playoff race. The rest of their roster and $6 might get you a good cup of coffee at Starbucks.

Looking at their potential starting lineup now, I love it: Chauncey Billups, Landry Fields, Anthony, Stoudemire and Ronny Turiaf.

Fields and Turiaf are key because they are hustle players who don't demand shots. Those qualities will go a long way with this group.

The potential issues, like coachability and chemistry between the two stars, will be addressed at a later time.

For now, this looks like a huge win for New York and the NBA and a huge loss for Denver and other second cities around the league.

Like Michael Douglas famously said in Wall Street, "Greed is good!"

The league has clearly gotten greedy here. It's no longer enough to have some of its big-market teams on the map; they want all of them on point and all at the same time.

They see the TV ratings and the media attention and the attendance when the "Heatles" go on the road, and they want more!

More! More! More!

Minnesota is another winner in this deal. I was high on Corey Brewer at one point, but getting rid of Brewer and his costly gambling on defense is addition by subtraction, and Anthony Randolph looks like possibly the best player leaving the Big Apple to me.

But keep in mind that I may feel differently 10 days from now.

Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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