Minnesota introduced new coach Rick Adelman on Wednesday.
Congratulations.
No team in the NBA was more poorly coached and in more desperate need of a good coach than Minnesota.
And David Kahn did a wonderful job of bringing in a guy who has everything it takes to turn the franchise around.
You never know with these coaching hires.
And I can't say for sure that Adelman will succeed in Minnesota, but there is absolutely no doubt that Kahn did his job by putting Minnesota in the best position to win.
There is nothing more you can ask of him than that.
Credit must also be given to owner Glen Taylor for doing what it took financially to get the deal done.
I want to introduce some new terminology.
When people talk about shooting guards and small forwards, they refer to them as "wings." And when they refer to power forwards and centers, they call them "bigs."
I've never liked the terms wings and bigs.
So when I write about what people call wings, I'll refer to them as 23s because shooting guards are also called "twos" and small forwards "threes."
And when I write about bigs I'll call them 45s because power forwards are called "fours" and centers "fives."
Point guards will be labeled 1s.
So when you see me writing about 1s, 23s and 45s, you'll know what I mean.
This Stephen Jackson trade is starting to grow on me.
It's why it is sometimes best to not do an instant reaction when a trade goes down.
I was extremely high on Milwaukee last year. Injuries totally derailed their season.
When they picked up Jackson in a three-team trade back in June, at first I thought they were throwing in the towel, a small-market team that took its shot and gave up too soon to save money when it didn't work out.
But the more I look at this team, the more I like it. I like the combinations they have at almost all positions.
The one hole I see is at small forward.
Carlos Delfino is a good player, but I don't think he's good enough to be a starter on this team if they want to be a legitimate contender.
A higher-caliber, starting small forward who can push Delfino to the bench would make Milwaukee a serious threat.
That is assuming Scott Skiles is up to the task.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
Showing posts with label team analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label team analysis. Show all posts
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Saturday, April 23, 2011
NBA Picks: Listen And Learn
Boy, did I get burned on some of my picks this year!
It was excruciating to watch as one team after another that I picked to do well performed below expectations.
At the same time, it was a valuable learning experience, one which I would like to pass along to all interested parties.
The most valuable lesson of all: consider the coach in your team evaluation!
My old method of analyzing a team was to look at the talent on the roster, see how much is there and how well it fits into traditional roles and positions and estimate a win total, with little or no regard for who the coach was.
But it's the coach who decides that Anthony Randolph doesn't deserve any playing time, who thinks Anthony Tolliver should be his first big man off the bench and who doesn't play Jeff Teague and goes with a seven-man rotation on the second night of a back-to-back.
The coach leads the team, evaluates the roster, sets the rotation, designs the plays, orchestrates the defense, hands out minutes, calls the timeouts, sets the strategies, approves the trades, guides the film sessions and everything else.
In short, the coach is everything!
You can have the most talented roster in the world and have them all fit perfectly together, but if the coach doesn't put the right players in the game at the right times, with a game-plan and a philosophy which produces wins, then it isn't worth a wooden nickel.
Whenever I write that certain things will happen, I feel a responsibility to explain things when they don't.
Even though all of the teams won more games than they did the year before, my expectations were much higher; so this is a look at the teams and what happened during the season to cause them to lose more games than what the talent on their rosters said they should have, with win improvement over the prior season in parentheses.
DETROIT PISTONS (+3)
I take full responsibility for this one.
I knew this pick was in trouble from the moment I saw Detroit play its first preseason game against Miami and knew it minutes into the game.
The season-ending injury to Jonas Jerebko didn't help a team so thin up front.
But the bigger problems were a lack of early-season passion from Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince and disastrous coaching by John Kuester.
I had to dedicate two sections to Greg Monroe and his limited playing time by the end of November, and Kuester's rotation only got more puzzling from there, with players moving in and out of the lineup for no apparent reason even when they were playing well.
They gave New Jersey the first game of the season with a fourth-quarter meltdown and blew a 21-point lead to Chicago two games later.
A season which could have and should have started 2-1, maybe 3-0, started 0-3; and that pretty much set the tone for the season.
I could have never known that Hamilton and Prince would lie down and not compete like they did, but the failure evaluate John Kuester was all my fault.
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (+2)
Jonny Flynn's injury was the main factor in Minnesota's poor season.
Luke Ridnour doesn't have the athleticism to consistently beat his man off the dribble on offense or keep his man in front of him on defense.
This created a domino effect which hurt Minnesota on both sides of the ball.
A healthy Jonny Flynn, not the one we saw this season, gives Minnesota an advantage on almost every offensive possession because someone would be open on almost every play, either Flynn after he beats his man off the dribble or a teammate after a defender comes over to help after Flynn has gotten by his man.
That would then make the team virtually unstoppable with Flynn's court vision and passing ability and all of the weapons that they have.
It was a vision which never materialized due to Flynn being less than 100 percent.
Minnesota battled crucial injuries all season long, but once the team got relatively healthy, the real culprit came to light: Kurt Rambis.
There isn't nearly enough room in this section to fully detail all of the mistakes Kurt Rambis made this season, so I'll stick to one or two key ones and move on.
Rambis's offense is built to the weaknesses and not the strengths of his players.
Rambis has an offense which requires big men to handle and make decisions with the basketball and doesn't allow the point guard to freelance and improvise very much.
The problem is Darko Milicic, Kevin Love and Michael Beasley aren't very good at making decisions with the basketball; and freelancing and improvising are two of the things Flynn and Ridnour do best.
Rambis's rotation made you wonder what he was thinking, and his refusal to keep a shot-blocker on the floor at all times hurt Minnesota's defense as much as fouls and the turnovers caused by his sophisticated offense.
It wouldn't be fair to say Rambis will never succeed as a coach in the NBA, but he has a very long way to go.
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (+3)
Los Angeles is another team which got derailed by injuries.
Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman and Randy Foye all missed significant time during the season.
Even with all of the injuries, it could still be said that Los Angeles played above expectations. But, in true Hollywood fashion, they did it in a way which wasn't expected.
In all of my writings, not one time did I mention the name DeAndre Jordan.
But his improvement and interior defense were huge factors in the team's turnaround.
I did evaluate Vinny Del Negro, and, appropriately, he was the only coach who didn't let me down, until they traded Baron Davis.
INDIANA PACERS (+5)
Jim O'Brien made me regret that I ever thought he was even a decent coach.
From benching TJ Ford, Paul George and Tyler Hansbrough to playing Danny Granger at power forward, O'Brien made more embarrassing moves than I care to remember.
He was rightfully fired during the season and replaced by Frank Vogel.
Vogel corrected every mistake except the TJ Ford one, but I've covered that so completely that there is no need to detail it any further here.
No injuries, just one poor coaching move after another continues to hurt this team.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (+10)
There is a noticeable theme developing here: injuries and bad coaching.
And Golden State had a little too much of both this season.
There were times this year when Keith Smart had me so irate that I wished Golden State would hire me for an hour, so I could fire him myself!
He played Monta Ellis way too many minutes, had too many Don Nelson, small-ball tendencies; failed to utilize a bench which was good enough to be utilized and was highly unfair to rookies Jeremy Lin and Ekpe Udoh.
It took Smart until the last few games of the season to stop playing Vladimir Radmanovic off the bench at power forward and play Lou Amundson there instead, but he should have realized the need to do that after the game against Utah at the end of January, at the latest.
Non-starters Reggie Williams, Lin, Udoh and Amundson can all play; so Smart's limited confidence in them makes you question his ability to evaluate talent and his commitment to the winning philosophy of using a strong bench to keep the starters fresh.
And Lin and Udoh were treated like unwanted step-children, yanked from games for the slightest of errors while the veterans could make multiple mistakes without consequence.
For Lin, the benching might last weeks and include a trip to the development league.
Smart made almost as many mistakes as Kurt Rambis and most definitely held Golden State back this year.
And he most definitely makes you question whether he can win consistently in the NBA.
You live, and you learn.
And going into next season, you can bet that the coaches will be analyzed as thoroughly and completely as the rosters and the individual matchups on the court.
It is a process I already started going into this year's playoffs.
And if you are wise, you will do the same thing too.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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It was excruciating to watch as one team after another that I picked to do well performed below expectations.
At the same time, it was a valuable learning experience, one which I would like to pass along to all interested parties.
The most valuable lesson of all: consider the coach in your team evaluation!
My old method of analyzing a team was to look at the talent on the roster, see how much is there and how well it fits into traditional roles and positions and estimate a win total, with little or no regard for who the coach was.
But it's the coach who decides that Anthony Randolph doesn't deserve any playing time, who thinks Anthony Tolliver should be his first big man off the bench and who doesn't play Jeff Teague and goes with a seven-man rotation on the second night of a back-to-back.
The coach leads the team, evaluates the roster, sets the rotation, designs the plays, orchestrates the defense, hands out minutes, calls the timeouts, sets the strategies, approves the trades, guides the film sessions and everything else.
In short, the coach is everything!
You can have the most talented roster in the world and have them all fit perfectly together, but if the coach doesn't put the right players in the game at the right times, with a game-plan and a philosophy which produces wins, then it isn't worth a wooden nickel.
Whenever I write that certain things will happen, I feel a responsibility to explain things when they don't.
Even though all of the teams won more games than they did the year before, my expectations were much higher; so this is a look at the teams and what happened during the season to cause them to lose more games than what the talent on their rosters said they should have, with win improvement over the prior season in parentheses.
DETROIT PISTONS (+3)
I take full responsibility for this one.
I knew this pick was in trouble from the moment I saw Detroit play its first preseason game against Miami and knew it minutes into the game.
The season-ending injury to Jonas Jerebko didn't help a team so thin up front.
But the bigger problems were a lack of early-season passion from Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince and disastrous coaching by John Kuester.
I had to dedicate two sections to Greg Monroe and his limited playing time by the end of November, and Kuester's rotation only got more puzzling from there, with players moving in and out of the lineup for no apparent reason even when they were playing well.
They gave New Jersey the first game of the season with a fourth-quarter meltdown and blew a 21-point lead to Chicago two games later.
A season which could have and should have started 2-1, maybe 3-0, started 0-3; and that pretty much set the tone for the season.
I could have never known that Hamilton and Prince would lie down and not compete like they did, but the failure evaluate John Kuester was all my fault.
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (+2)
Jonny Flynn's injury was the main factor in Minnesota's poor season.
Luke Ridnour doesn't have the athleticism to consistently beat his man off the dribble on offense or keep his man in front of him on defense.
This created a domino effect which hurt Minnesota on both sides of the ball.
A healthy Jonny Flynn, not the one we saw this season, gives Minnesota an advantage on almost every offensive possession because someone would be open on almost every play, either Flynn after he beats his man off the dribble or a teammate after a defender comes over to help after Flynn has gotten by his man.
That would then make the team virtually unstoppable with Flynn's court vision and passing ability and all of the weapons that they have.
It was a vision which never materialized due to Flynn being less than 100 percent.
Minnesota battled crucial injuries all season long, but once the team got relatively healthy, the real culprit came to light: Kurt Rambis.
There isn't nearly enough room in this section to fully detail all of the mistakes Kurt Rambis made this season, so I'll stick to one or two key ones and move on.
Rambis's offense is built to the weaknesses and not the strengths of his players.
Rambis has an offense which requires big men to handle and make decisions with the basketball and doesn't allow the point guard to freelance and improvise very much.
The problem is Darko Milicic, Kevin Love and Michael Beasley aren't very good at making decisions with the basketball; and freelancing and improvising are two of the things Flynn and Ridnour do best.
Rambis's rotation made you wonder what he was thinking, and his refusal to keep a shot-blocker on the floor at all times hurt Minnesota's defense as much as fouls and the turnovers caused by his sophisticated offense.
It wouldn't be fair to say Rambis will never succeed as a coach in the NBA, but he has a very long way to go.
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (+3)
Los Angeles is another team which got derailed by injuries.
Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman and Randy Foye all missed significant time during the season.
Even with all of the injuries, it could still be said that Los Angeles played above expectations. But, in true Hollywood fashion, they did it in a way which wasn't expected.
In all of my writings, not one time did I mention the name DeAndre Jordan.
But his improvement and interior defense were huge factors in the team's turnaround.
I did evaluate Vinny Del Negro, and, appropriately, he was the only coach who didn't let me down, until they traded Baron Davis.
INDIANA PACERS (+5)
Jim O'Brien made me regret that I ever thought he was even a decent coach.
From benching TJ Ford, Paul George and Tyler Hansbrough to playing Danny Granger at power forward, O'Brien made more embarrassing moves than I care to remember.
He was rightfully fired during the season and replaced by Frank Vogel.
Vogel corrected every mistake except the TJ Ford one, but I've covered that so completely that there is no need to detail it any further here.
No injuries, just one poor coaching move after another continues to hurt this team.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (+10)
There is a noticeable theme developing here: injuries and bad coaching.
And Golden State had a little too much of both this season.
There were times this year when Keith Smart had me so irate that I wished Golden State would hire me for an hour, so I could fire him myself!
He played Monta Ellis way too many minutes, had too many Don Nelson, small-ball tendencies; failed to utilize a bench which was good enough to be utilized and was highly unfair to rookies Jeremy Lin and Ekpe Udoh.
It took Smart until the last few games of the season to stop playing Vladimir Radmanovic off the bench at power forward and play Lou Amundson there instead, but he should have realized the need to do that after the game against Utah at the end of January, at the latest.
Non-starters Reggie Williams, Lin, Udoh and Amundson can all play; so Smart's limited confidence in them makes you question his ability to evaluate talent and his commitment to the winning philosophy of using a strong bench to keep the starters fresh.
And Lin and Udoh were treated like unwanted step-children, yanked from games for the slightest of errors while the veterans could make multiple mistakes without consequence.
For Lin, the benching might last weeks and include a trip to the development league.
Smart made almost as many mistakes as Kurt Rambis and most definitely held Golden State back this year.
And he most definitely makes you question whether he can win consistently in the NBA.
You live, and you learn.
And going into next season, you can bet that the coaches will be analyzed as thoroughly and completely as the rosters and the individual matchups on the court.
It is a process I already started going into this year's playoffs.
And if you are wise, you will do the same thing too.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Saturday, March 12, 2011
Swishing And Dishing
Is there a such thing as the team-player award?
Because if there is, I want to nominate Andrew Bynum.
Bynum recently talked about how the team is better when they are moving the ball instead of featuring him as a scorer inside and willingly put his dream of being a dominant center on hold in order to make the team better.
That's beautiful.
What's even more beautiful is how much better Bynum will be when he does become the featured scorer for the Lakers.
Once he masters reading defenses and passing from the post and elsewhere, he will be even more unstoppable because he will be able to carve defenses up with his passing and burn them with his powerful low-post moves.
It's like The Karate Kid (1984), where Mr. Miyagi had him doing all of these things which looked like they had nothing to do with fighting, until he actually got onto the mat.
Bynum being unselfish and passing the ball to open teammates doesn't look like it is helping him, but in actuality it is.
This Denver team is fun to watch!
Speedy Ty Lawson has a great feel for the game and the point guard position, and I never knew Kenyon Martin was so versatile with all of the passes he can make.
George Karl is in a great position because he has a deep bench, which allows him to play guys the right amount of minutes to keep them fresh and give his team an energy advantage almost every single night.
Games can be and are often won on energy alone.
And improving and using the bench is the key capitalizing on this edge.
Someone who is great playing 40 minutes will be even better playing 36 and even better than that playing 32.
That is the advantage Denver has over many teams.
These guys in Denver may not be household names yet, but all of that will change if they keep winning and playing like they do.
THE GREAT NORTHWEST
The Portland Trail Blazers look like they have found their footing again.
I had them as a contender before the season started, but that was before they traded backup point guard Jerryd Bayless, before Brandon Roy had surgery on both knees and before Greg Oden had surgery and was lost for the season.
You wouldn't believe how badly Portland struggled to replace Bayless before Patrick Mills was moved in and got comfortable. It took a good six weeks, and Mills still is merely a barely-adequate replacement.
Gerald Wallace is fitting in nicely, and LaMarcus Aldridge has been lighting up everything in his path for about two months.
And Portland wisely signed Nate McMillan to an extension this week.
They have some nice things going on, but Portland isn't nearly as threatening as they appeared before the season.
A couple of more pieces and a return to full health would go a long way in changing that though.
UNPREDICTABLE
When I wrote my conference previews before the season started, I noted some of the things which make seasons so unpredictable: injuries, trades, coaching decisions and team chemistry.
Individual improvement is another thing which makes predictions so hard to make.
There have been so many players who came out of nowhere to have better seasons this year.
A good way to get yourself slapped would have been to tell someone before the season (hell, a month into the season) that DeAndre Jordan would turn himself into even a decent NBA player. But that is exactly what he has done, and Los Angeles is much better for it.
His teammate Eric Gordon got better too. Gordon averaged as much as 24 points when he was healthy and the team rolling.
Derrick Rose made the leap into the one of the best players in the NBA and took Chicago with him.
Who saw the season Elton Brand is having?
Will Bynum is a much better point guard than he was in November. He runs Detroit's offense like a pro and is making the transition from someone who loves to take a shot to someone who loves to dish a pass to a teammate.
I already talked about Richard Jefferson and the season he is having.
Marcin Gortat has been playing in Phoenix like he should have been the starter at center in Orlando.
Kris Humphries is someone else getting minutes for the first time and showing he deserves the longer look, and Earl Clark makes plays whenever Stan Van Gundy decides to give him playing time.
These are some of the few who came out of nowhere to have better seasons, and there are many others.
And they all deserve credit for stepping up their games and making themselves and the game better.
BAD BOY
Not to be confused with Mike Lowery from the movie Bad Boys but Kyle Lowry is a bad boy himself, or as Mark Jackson might put it, a "bad man!"
An early sign came over the summer when Cleveland and coach Byron Scott signed Lowry to an offer sheet.
When Byron Scott got his first job with the New Jersey Nets, one of the first things New Jersey did was trade for Jason Kidd.
When Scott got his next job in New Orleans, one of the first things New Orleans did was draft Chris Paul.
Scott went on to have great successes (and great failures but let's not talk about that now) with both players.
And Scott played with Magic Johnson, one of the greatest point guards of all time.
Byron Scott knows point guards.
So when he handpicked Kyle Lowry to be his point guard of the future in Cleveland, it was a strong indicator that Lowry was for real.
Houston wisely matched the offer and kept Lowry even though he was little more than a backup to Aaron Brooks at the time.
When Brooks went down with an injury early in the season, Lowry took control of the team and hasn't let go. He is carrying this Houston team and has them fighting for a playoff spot.
Not known as a shooter, Lowry has improved his three-point shooting percentage from .272 last season to a sizzling .380 this year and can beat a team any way imaginable anywhere on the court.
Houston is 7-2 in its last nine games, and Lowry's play in the last five games has been staggering (22.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 8 assists, 1.4 steals, shooting .547 from the field and .488 from three).
When franchises look to win big, they try to find pieces to build around; and Lowry is one of those pieces.
He probably won't lead Houston to the playoffs this year, but he has them in the conversation.
And the way he has played recently, he is close to making himself part of another conversation: the one naming the best point guards in the NBA.
Because if there is, I want to nominate Andrew Bynum.
Bynum recently talked about how the team is better when they are moving the ball instead of featuring him as a scorer inside and willingly put his dream of being a dominant center on hold in order to make the team better.
That's beautiful.
What's even more beautiful is how much better Bynum will be when he does become the featured scorer for the Lakers.
Once he masters reading defenses and passing from the post and elsewhere, he will be even more unstoppable because he will be able to carve defenses up with his passing and burn them with his powerful low-post moves.
It's like The Karate Kid (1984), where Mr. Miyagi had him doing all of these things which looked like they had nothing to do with fighting, until he actually got onto the mat.
Bynum being unselfish and passing the ball to open teammates doesn't look like it is helping him, but in actuality it is.
This Denver team is fun to watch!
Speedy Ty Lawson has a great feel for the game and the point guard position, and I never knew Kenyon Martin was so versatile with all of the passes he can make.
George Karl is in a great position because he has a deep bench, which allows him to play guys the right amount of minutes to keep them fresh and give his team an energy advantage almost every single night.
Games can be and are often won on energy alone.
And improving and using the bench is the key capitalizing on this edge.
Someone who is great playing 40 minutes will be even better playing 36 and even better than that playing 32.
That is the advantage Denver has over many teams.
These guys in Denver may not be household names yet, but all of that will change if they keep winning and playing like they do.
THE GREAT NORTHWEST
The Portland Trail Blazers look like they have found their footing again.
I had them as a contender before the season started, but that was before they traded backup point guard Jerryd Bayless, before Brandon Roy had surgery on both knees and before Greg Oden had surgery and was lost for the season.
You wouldn't believe how badly Portland struggled to replace Bayless before Patrick Mills was moved in and got comfortable. It took a good six weeks, and Mills still is merely a barely-adequate replacement.
Gerald Wallace is fitting in nicely, and LaMarcus Aldridge has been lighting up everything in his path for about two months.
And Portland wisely signed Nate McMillan to an extension this week.
They have some nice things going on, but Portland isn't nearly as threatening as they appeared before the season.
A couple of more pieces and a return to full health would go a long way in changing that though.
UNPREDICTABLE
When I wrote my conference previews before the season started, I noted some of the things which make seasons so unpredictable: injuries, trades, coaching decisions and team chemistry.
Individual improvement is another thing which makes predictions so hard to make.
There have been so many players who came out of nowhere to have better seasons this year.
A good way to get yourself slapped would have been to tell someone before the season (hell, a month into the season) that DeAndre Jordan would turn himself into even a decent NBA player. But that is exactly what he has done, and Los Angeles is much better for it.
His teammate Eric Gordon got better too. Gordon averaged as much as 24 points when he was healthy and the team rolling.
Derrick Rose made the leap into the one of the best players in the NBA and took Chicago with him.
Who saw the season Elton Brand is having?
Will Bynum is a much better point guard than he was in November. He runs Detroit's offense like a pro and is making the transition from someone who loves to take a shot to someone who loves to dish a pass to a teammate.
I already talked about Richard Jefferson and the season he is having.
Marcin Gortat has been playing in Phoenix like he should have been the starter at center in Orlando.
Kris Humphries is someone else getting minutes for the first time and showing he deserves the longer look, and Earl Clark makes plays whenever Stan Van Gundy decides to give him playing time.
These are some of the few who came out of nowhere to have better seasons, and there are many others.
And they all deserve credit for stepping up their games and making themselves and the game better.
BAD BOY
Not to be confused with Mike Lowery from the movie Bad Boys but Kyle Lowry is a bad boy himself, or as Mark Jackson might put it, a "bad man!"
An early sign came over the summer when Cleveland and coach Byron Scott signed Lowry to an offer sheet.
When Byron Scott got his first job with the New Jersey Nets, one of the first things New Jersey did was trade for Jason Kidd.
When Scott got his next job in New Orleans, one of the first things New Orleans did was draft Chris Paul.
Scott went on to have great successes (and great failures but let's not talk about that now) with both players.
And Scott played with Magic Johnson, one of the greatest point guards of all time.
Byron Scott knows point guards.
So when he handpicked Kyle Lowry to be his point guard of the future in Cleveland, it was a strong indicator that Lowry was for real.
Houston wisely matched the offer and kept Lowry even though he was little more than a backup to Aaron Brooks at the time.
When Brooks went down with an injury early in the season, Lowry took control of the team and hasn't let go. He is carrying this Houston team and has them fighting for a playoff spot.
Not known as a shooter, Lowry has improved his three-point shooting percentage from .272 last season to a sizzling .380 this year and can beat a team any way imaginable anywhere on the court.
Houston is 7-2 in its last nine games, and Lowry's play in the last five games has been staggering (22.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 8 assists, 1.4 steals, shooting .547 from the field and .488 from three).
When franchises look to win big, they try to find pieces to build around; and Lowry is one of those pieces.
He probably won't lead Houston to the playoffs this year, but he has them in the conversation.
And the way he has played recently, he is close to making himself part of another conversation: the one naming the best point guards in the NBA.
Note Update, 2/26/2012, 12:22 AM: Some of Lowry's March statistics first posted by Tom Martin.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Saturday, March 5, 2011
The Week In Basketball
The Miami Heat signed point guard Mike Bibby this week after he was let go by the Washington Wizards.
It was a great signing by Miami, and they should definitely look to make it long term by keeping Bibby beyond this season.
Although he should have known way better than to go double-team and leave Gilbert Arenas open behind the three-point line, reports of Bibby's defensive demise have been greatly exaggerated.
And we all know what he brings on the offensive end with his execution and big-shot making.
Contrary to reported expectations, Bibby has been an upgrade on both ends of the court for Miami and significantly increases their chances of going all the way this season.
Last week I wrote that Boston was the "clear" favorite in the East.
Boston would still be considered the favorite, but the addition of Mike Bibby by the Miami Heat brings it a lot closer to 50/50 and makes it not nearly as clear as it was just seven days ago.
Before the season, I was one of the very few not on the Oklahoma City bandwagon. It was noted that while the bandwagon was huge and had many guests and visitors, I was not one of them.
Now that they have traded for Kendrick Perkins and Nazr Mohammed and are playing the right players at the right positions (you know, no more small forwards at power forward), Oklahoma City has moved itself into the conversation as a legitimate contender.
Russell Westbrook is the key to this whole thing.
He can't go charging into the crowded paint at 200 miles per hour or commit other costly turnovers in the closing minutes of close games. Westbrook has to learn to play the game at different speeds and not play with reckless abandon at all times, particularly when a good play call is what is needed.
Westbrook mastering the fast game (open court) and the slow game (half court) gives Oklahoma City its best chance of being a serious threat to the other top teams in the NBA.
I'm still not buying Thabo Sefolosha as a starter on a championship team, but Nate Robinson, James Harden or Daequan Cook may be able to provide them with what they need from the shooting guard position.
MR. BIG SHOT
The story of Chauncey Billups is one of the most amazing stories ever.
Born out of the ashes of Boston's failed attempt to land Tim Duncan and fortified on one of the most unsung championship teams in recent memory, Chauncey Billups has probably seen it all in his career.
And over the course of his career, he has earned his respect as one of the best point guards in the NBA.
Even 10 years into his career, you would have found me among his harshest critics. Chauncey Billups just didn't play point guard the way I had come to expect it to be played.
I grew up on Magic Johnson, Isiah Thomas, Rod Strickland, Tim Hardaway and Kevin Johnson.
And Billups just didn't fit the mold.
He didn't push the tempo. He didn't have eyes in the back of his head. He didn't make passes which made you wonder how he saw the guy open. He didn't cross people up and make them look silly with his dribbling skills. And he didn't drive into the paint and finish over bigger players with an infinite variety of highly-creative layups.
How is this guy even a point guard? And why is he in the NBA?
Rick Pitino must have wondered the same thing because 51 games into Billups' rookie season, Pitino shipped him off to Toronto in a trade.
That trade kicked off a sequence which would see Billups traded three times in two years and eventually end up in Minnesota, where he signed as a free agent in 2000.
While he started to put things together in Minnesota, it wasn't until his next stop in Detroit that Billups' career really took off.
Playing with an unheralded group that it seemed no one else wanted, Billups won a championship with Detroit in 2004.
He led Detroit to the conference finals every season, but after losing there three years in a row, he was traded once again and ended up in Denver, where it looked like he would finish his career playing for his hometown team, that is, until the Knicks called and wanted to include Billups in a deal to send Carmelo Anthony to New York.
Now a Knick, Billups continues his journey through the NBA and has taken on the role of mentor to some of the younger point guards in the league, as described by Mike Breen during Billups' debut with New York against Milwuakee.
He has much to share because over the years, Billups has picked up the attributes which make a great point guard and managed to add at least one of his own.
He had his ups and downs early, but numerous big shots and big wins later, Billups is still going strong.
He may not be Tim Duncan, but he is Chauncey Billups.
And he has shown repeatedly that is more than good enough.
THROW A BONE
Is it just me, or do big guys seem to play better after they have gotten a few touches?
Andrew Bynum is much better after he gets a few touches, and I swear it looks like there are two Andris Biedrinses out there after he gets the ball a few times.
The same could be said of defensive players.
Dennis Rodman retired years ago, and Joel Anthony is only allowed to play for the Miami Heat. They are two of the few players who don't mind playing without someone passing them the basketball.
Without one of them, a team is going to have to share the ball with its big man in order to get the most out of him.
In a way, you can understand where they are coming from.
Who wants to run around all day and never touch the basketball? And for a big man who works hard to establish good post position, only to be ignored again and again, this can be even more frustrating.
A point can be made that if big men want touches they should hustle for loose balls and offensive rebounds and get them that way, and that is a good point.
At the same time, what would it hurt passing the ball to the big guy every now and then, even if it's only once every five possessions or so, especially when you know it is going to energize him?
It may be inconvenient, and yes, most of them can't do anything with it once they get it; but every once in a while you have to throw these guys a bone just to keep them involved and let them know they are part of the team.
And to make sure they protect the paint when someone drives down the lane.
When teams look out for their big men, their big men look out for them.
CREDIT DUE
I have to give credit here to someone I've been reading who has really helped me see the game better.
Jonathan Tjarks and his material have gone a long way in keeping me sharp and on top of things.
I may not agree with everything he writes, or even a majority of it; but it is interesting and often insightful.
Here is the breakdown of what I've been reading and thinking over:
(1.) Colin Cowherd was the first person I heard do this when he went over Kobe Bryant's career in between Shaquille O'Neal leaving and Pau Gasol arriving. It wasn't a pretty sight. So Tjarks' emphasis on outstanding big men and their importance to winning championships was more food for thought on the subject.
(2.) I always watch defense, but Tjarks using the phrase "defend his position" or "defend a position" made me look more closely at how someone specifically matches up at the position he plays and focus more on particular matchups.
(3.) While I don't agree with his overall argument about Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash and why their careers took off after they were separated, it does make me pay close attention when two or more poor defenders are on the floor at the same time and what impact it has on the game.
(4.) And his take on big men who can pass and little men who can rebound was something else to think about (see 4 and 5 in the five-tool player), just an interesting way to see things that I have never really thought about.
Note: I first discovered Tjarks on a link posted by Zach Lowe at SI.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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It was a great signing by Miami, and they should definitely look to make it long term by keeping Bibby beyond this season.
Although he should have known way better than to go double-team and leave Gilbert Arenas open behind the three-point line, reports of Bibby's defensive demise have been greatly exaggerated.
And we all know what he brings on the offensive end with his execution and big-shot making.
Contrary to reported expectations, Bibby has been an upgrade on both ends of the court for Miami and significantly increases their chances of going all the way this season.
Last week I wrote that Boston was the "clear" favorite in the East.
Boston would still be considered the favorite, but the addition of Mike Bibby by the Miami Heat brings it a lot closer to 50/50 and makes it not nearly as clear as it was just seven days ago.
Before the season, I was one of the very few not on the Oklahoma City bandwagon. It was noted that while the bandwagon was huge and had many guests and visitors, I was not one of them.
Now that they have traded for Kendrick Perkins and Nazr Mohammed and are playing the right players at the right positions (you know, no more small forwards at power forward), Oklahoma City has moved itself into the conversation as a legitimate contender.
Russell Westbrook is the key to this whole thing.
He can't go charging into the crowded paint at 200 miles per hour or commit other costly turnovers in the closing minutes of close games. Westbrook has to learn to play the game at different speeds and not play with reckless abandon at all times, particularly when a good play call is what is needed.
Westbrook mastering the fast game (open court) and the slow game (half court) gives Oklahoma City its best chance of being a serious threat to the other top teams in the NBA.
I'm still not buying Thabo Sefolosha as a starter on a championship team, but Nate Robinson, James Harden or Daequan Cook may be able to provide them with what they need from the shooting guard position.
MR. BIG SHOT
The story of Chauncey Billups is one of the most amazing stories ever.
Born out of the ashes of Boston's failed attempt to land Tim Duncan and fortified on one of the most unsung championship teams in recent memory, Chauncey Billups has probably seen it all in his career.
And over the course of his career, he has earned his respect as one of the best point guards in the NBA.
Even 10 years into his career, you would have found me among his harshest critics. Chauncey Billups just didn't play point guard the way I had come to expect it to be played.
I grew up on Magic Johnson, Isiah Thomas, Rod Strickland, Tim Hardaway and Kevin Johnson.
And Billups just didn't fit the mold.
He didn't push the tempo. He didn't have eyes in the back of his head. He didn't make passes which made you wonder how he saw the guy open. He didn't cross people up and make them look silly with his dribbling skills. And he didn't drive into the paint and finish over bigger players with an infinite variety of highly-creative layups.
How is this guy even a point guard? And why is he in the NBA?
Rick Pitino must have wondered the same thing because 51 games into Billups' rookie season, Pitino shipped him off to Toronto in a trade.
That trade kicked off a sequence which would see Billups traded three times in two years and eventually end up in Minnesota, where he signed as a free agent in 2000.
While he started to put things together in Minnesota, it wasn't until his next stop in Detroit that Billups' career really took off.
Playing with an unheralded group that it seemed no one else wanted, Billups won a championship with Detroit in 2004.
He led Detroit to the conference finals every season, but after losing there three years in a row, he was traded once again and ended up in Denver, where it looked like he would finish his career playing for his hometown team, that is, until the Knicks called and wanted to include Billups in a deal to send Carmelo Anthony to New York.
Now a Knick, Billups continues his journey through the NBA and has taken on the role of mentor to some of the younger point guards in the league, as described by Mike Breen during Billups' debut with New York against Milwuakee.
He has much to share because over the years, Billups has picked up the attributes which make a great point guard and managed to add at least one of his own.
He had his ups and downs early, but numerous big shots and big wins later, Billups is still going strong.
He may not be Tim Duncan, but he is Chauncey Billups.
And he has shown repeatedly that is more than good enough.
THROW A BONE
Is it just me, or do big guys seem to play better after they have gotten a few touches?
Andrew Bynum is much better after he gets a few touches, and I swear it looks like there are two Andris Biedrinses out there after he gets the ball a few times.
The same could be said of defensive players.
Dennis Rodman retired years ago, and Joel Anthony is only allowed to play for the Miami Heat. They are two of the few players who don't mind playing without someone passing them the basketball.
Without one of them, a team is going to have to share the ball with its big man in order to get the most out of him.
In a way, you can understand where they are coming from.
Who wants to run around all day and never touch the basketball? And for a big man who works hard to establish good post position, only to be ignored again and again, this can be even more frustrating.
A point can be made that if big men want touches they should hustle for loose balls and offensive rebounds and get them that way, and that is a good point.
At the same time, what would it hurt passing the ball to the big guy every now and then, even if it's only once every five possessions or so, especially when you know it is going to energize him?
It may be inconvenient, and yes, most of them can't do anything with it once they get it; but every once in a while you have to throw these guys a bone just to keep them involved and let them know they are part of the team.
And to make sure they protect the paint when someone drives down the lane.
When teams look out for their big men, their big men look out for them.
CREDIT DUE
I have to give credit here to someone I've been reading who has really helped me see the game better.
Jonathan Tjarks and his material have gone a long way in keeping me sharp and on top of things.
I may not agree with everything he writes, or even a majority of it; but it is interesting and often insightful.
Here is the breakdown of what I've been reading and thinking over:
(1.) Colin Cowherd was the first person I heard do this when he went over Kobe Bryant's career in between Shaquille O'Neal leaving and Pau Gasol arriving. It wasn't a pretty sight. So Tjarks' emphasis on outstanding big men and their importance to winning championships was more food for thought on the subject.
(2.) I always watch defense, but Tjarks using the phrase "defend his position" or "defend a position" made me look more closely at how someone specifically matches up at the position he plays and focus more on particular matchups.
(3.) While I don't agree with his overall argument about Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash and why their careers took off after they were separated, it does make me pay close attention when two or more poor defenders are on the floor at the same time and what impact it has on the game.
(4.) And his take on big men who can pass and little men who can rebound was something else to think about (see 4 and 5 in the five-tool player), just an interesting way to see things that I have never really thought about.
Note: I first discovered Tjarks on a link posted by Zach Lowe at SI.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Saturday, February 26, 2011
PLAYOFF PUSH POWER POLL
And Trade Deadline Review
This will go down as the wildest week in NBA trade-deadline history.
It's hard to imagine more headline players changing teams in such a short period of time as there were this week in the association.
After Carmelo Anthony muscled his way to New York, teams started seeing things very clearly.
The lack of a signed contract extension, or an expected tough negotiation, was rightfully taken by teams as a sign that the player didn't want to be there; and teams started unloading them left and right.
Deron Williams and Jeff Green were promptly booted, and it seemed everybody else jumped into the fray just because they could.
When it was over, we had a deadline day that was so crazy news sites could hardly keep up with the fast-moving transactions.
Looking at where we stand heading into the home stretch, very little has changed at the top or bottom of the league standings.
San Antonio and Boston are still the top two teams, and all of the top 10 teams from the Mid-Season Power Poll are still the same, only in a different order.
Dallas made the most ground. They were number seven in the last power poll and are now three. And the Lakers fell from three to six, the biggest fall of any team in the top 10.
(1.) San Antonio (48-10)
(2.) Boston (41-15)
(3.) Miami (43-16)
(4.) Dallas (41-16)
(5.) Chicago (39-17)
(6.) Los Angeles (41-19)
(7.) Oklahoma City (36-21)
(8.) Orlando (37-22)
(9.) Atlanta (35-23)
(10.) New Orleans (35-25)
NBA DRAFT LOTTERY POLL
I agree with everyone else that this looks like an extremely weak draft class.
My research hasn't been much, but I haven't seen a NBA-ready player yet, someone who has all of the tools to be successful before he enters the draft.
But that doesn't mean the draft is worthless, and no one will develop into a star with some good coaching, a strong drive and some good, veteran leadership.
The following teams will be competing to take that chance and hope someone can grow into the face of their franchise for many years to come.
(1.) Cleveland (11-47)
(2.) Minnesota (13-46)
(3.) Sacramento (14-42)
(4.) Washington (15-42)
(5.) Toronto (16-43)
(6.) New Jersey (17-41)
(7.) Detroit (21-39)
(8.) Los Angeles (21-38)
(9.) Milwaukee (22-35)
(10.) Charlotte (26-32)
DEADLINE DEALS
The Carmelo Anthony trade was covered earlier in the week, so let's take a look at the rest of what went down as teams prepare for the final games of the season and the playoffs.
Jeff Green to Boston: Are you kidding me?
Los Angeles and Dallas can step aside because they now have some company at the top of the NBA. This move makes Boston as deep and as talented as anybody, the clear favorite in the East and possibly the favorite to win it all this year.
Not only that, it secures their future and gives them a possible franchise cornerstone to play with Rajon Rondo for many years to come.
Before this trade, Boston was looking at a closing window of opportunity as a serious title threat. Now they are as well positioned as anybody to compete for titles after the end of the 2011-12 season.
Jermaine O'Neal is better than Kendrick Perkins could ever dream of being, and it was reported during the game Thursday night that they expect O'Neal back one month before the playoffs.
So Boston has a potential franchise player coming off the bench now that they have traded Perkins for Green and someone better than Perkins coming back for a playoff run.
Green has been playing out of position as a power forward for a couple of years. Back at his natural position, he could end up being as good as any small forward in the NBA.
From the Oklahoma City side, this trade is so horrendous that it almost makes you question their sanity. Who in the world would trade a possible franchise player for a role player and a backup point guard?
Make no mistake, they will be better as a team because they are no longer starting a small forward at power forward but don't mistake that as getting anything close to equal value for Jeff Green.
Nate Robinson is the only thing which can prevent this trade from going down as one of the all-time worst in NBA history.
Because Russell Westbrook is big for a point guard, Oklahoma City can play Robinson at shooting guard, which may be best for him, and match him up against the other team's point guard on defense; and a lineup of Westbrook, Robinson, Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka would give them one of the most athletic of any in the NBA of guys who can actually play.
Let's see the Lakers keep up with that. But other than that, this trade is more than a head-scratcher.
A huge Celtics fan growing up, Thunder general manager Sam Presti is doing his best to pass Kevin McHale and become the man who traded his beloved Celtics the greatest number of assets at the cheapest possible price.
And with the Ray Allen trade and now this one, he may have topped him.
In a separate trade with Charlotte, Oklahoma City picked up Nazr Mohammed to boost their front court; and Boston got Nenad Krstic from Oklahoma City with Jeff Green.
Knicks to Denver: Everyone keeps saying that you have to have superstars to win, but few have ever really tested that theory. I have always believed that there is strength in numbers and that a team of eight to 10 really good players could be just as good as, if not better than, a team with a few superstars but other players not as good as that eight to 10.
Don't forget that George Karl is an outstanding coach.
I won't call him great because he hasn't won two championships, but you give a really good coach a bunch of good players, and there is no telling what can happen.
As for New York, they'll be fine as soon as Don Nelson Jr., I mean Mike D'Antoni, stops playing small ball.
Amar'e Stoudemire is not a center.
The sooner D'Antoni makes this adjustment, the better off New York will be.
Gerald Wallace to Portland: Gerald Wallace is a really good player. He has a lot of skills, will fit in nicely with what they are trying to do ('We'll use him ...') and is good insurance for Brandon Roy.
It will be very difficult to score on a front court featuring him, LaMarcus Aldridge and Marcus Camby, a definite step in the right direction for Portland.
Wallace puts them one step closer to contention.
Deron Williams to New Jersey: I'm not nearly as blown away by this move as others are. So New Jersey upgraded from a borderline-outstanding point guard to an outstanding one?
They still don't have any players and now, fewer draft picks. And I'm not even sure how much of an "upgrade" this really is.
Devin Harris can play.
Any boost they get from people wanting to come and play with Williams, assuming he is still there, could be offset by them not wanting to play for Avery Johnson, a coach who yells at his players like he's their daddy.
Mike Bibby for Kirk Hinrich: I've been down with the Jeff Teague Movement for a few weeks now.
Why these teams have talented players rotting on their benches will never be understood. Atlanta giving him more playing time was long overdue.
Hilton Armstrong is a nice prospect who should be better than any center on Atlanta's roster.
I'll believe Kirk Hinrich is an upgrade over Mike Bibby when I see it.
Baron Davis to Cleveland: This is the first mistake under Vinny Del Negro.
The Clippers should have traded for Jamario Moon and left Mo Williams in Cleveland. It's a bad sign because it is the first sign of the Clippers being the Clippers, meaning they were being cheap and made the move to save money and not win basketball games.
It does look like a weak draft, but in their position at this point in the season (no shot at the playoffs), you never opt out of the draft without seeing how the board lines up after the draft lottery.
And certainly not for Mo Williams, the guy who played about 12 good minutes in six games against Boston in the playoffs last year.
Marcus Thornton to Sacramento: This was a good move by Sacramento.
The last thing they need is a power forward with the front court that they have. They filled a position of need by trading a player who wasn't needed in Carl Landry.
I'm not sure what New Orleans was thinking here. Some games will have to be watched to find some answers.
Shane Battier to Memphis: Ishmael Smith, the throw in, may end up being the real key to this trade. He could fill Memphis' need at backup point guard.
What impact Battier will have on this team is unclear, but a talent upgrade always helps.
In Houston, this frees up playing time for Terrence Williams, Courtney Lee and Chase Budinger. I would have traded Kevin Martin too, but that's just me.
Hasheem Thabeet is a project, one most would say should be scrapped; but Houston has nothing to lose in seeing what he's got and trying to develop him.
Aaron Brooks to Phoenix: The impact of this trade can't be measured either.
Houston got Goran Dragic in return, one backup point guard for another. I need to see some games to come to any conclusion.
Finally, Chicago absolutely should have made a move for a shooting guard.
You don't go into the playoffs with just enough to try to win it all; you go in with more than enough, then you try to get some more after that.
Their margin of error is too close for comfort.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
Tweet
This will go down as the wildest week in NBA trade-deadline history.
It's hard to imagine more headline players changing teams in such a short period of time as there were this week in the association.
After Carmelo Anthony muscled his way to New York, teams started seeing things very clearly.
The lack of a signed contract extension, or an expected tough negotiation, was rightfully taken by teams as a sign that the player didn't want to be there; and teams started unloading them left and right.
Deron Williams and Jeff Green were promptly booted, and it seemed everybody else jumped into the fray just because they could.
When it was over, we had a deadline day that was so crazy news sites could hardly keep up with the fast-moving transactions.
Looking at where we stand heading into the home stretch, very little has changed at the top or bottom of the league standings.
San Antonio and Boston are still the top two teams, and all of the top 10 teams from the Mid-Season Power Poll are still the same, only in a different order.
Dallas made the most ground. They were number seven in the last power poll and are now three. And the Lakers fell from three to six, the biggest fall of any team in the top 10.
(1.) San Antonio (48-10)
(2.) Boston (41-15)
(3.) Miami (43-16)
(4.) Dallas (41-16)
(5.) Chicago (39-17)
(6.) Los Angeles (41-19)
(7.) Oklahoma City (36-21)
(8.) Orlando (37-22)
(9.) Atlanta (35-23)
(10.) New Orleans (35-25)
NBA DRAFT LOTTERY POLL
I agree with everyone else that this looks like an extremely weak draft class.
My research hasn't been much, but I haven't seen a NBA-ready player yet, someone who has all of the tools to be successful before he enters the draft.
But that doesn't mean the draft is worthless, and no one will develop into a star with some good coaching, a strong drive and some good, veteran leadership.
The following teams will be competing to take that chance and hope someone can grow into the face of their franchise for many years to come.
(1.) Cleveland (11-47)
(2.) Minnesota (13-46)
(3.) Sacramento (14-42)
(4.) Washington (15-42)
(5.) Toronto (16-43)
(6.) New Jersey (17-41)
(7.) Detroit (21-39)
(8.) Los Angeles (21-38)
(9.) Milwaukee (22-35)
(10.) Charlotte (26-32)
DEADLINE DEALS
The Carmelo Anthony trade was covered earlier in the week, so let's take a look at the rest of what went down as teams prepare for the final games of the season and the playoffs.
Jeff Green to Boston: Are you kidding me?
Los Angeles and Dallas can step aside because they now have some company at the top of the NBA. This move makes Boston as deep and as talented as anybody, the clear favorite in the East and possibly the favorite to win it all this year.
Not only that, it secures their future and gives them a possible franchise cornerstone to play with Rajon Rondo for many years to come.
Before this trade, Boston was looking at a closing window of opportunity as a serious title threat. Now they are as well positioned as anybody to compete for titles after the end of the 2011-12 season.
Jermaine O'Neal is better than Kendrick Perkins could ever dream of being, and it was reported during the game Thursday night that they expect O'Neal back one month before the playoffs.
So Boston has a potential franchise player coming off the bench now that they have traded Perkins for Green and someone better than Perkins coming back for a playoff run.
Green has been playing out of position as a power forward for a couple of years. Back at his natural position, he could end up being as good as any small forward in the NBA.
From the Oklahoma City side, this trade is so horrendous that it almost makes you question their sanity. Who in the world would trade a possible franchise player for a role player and a backup point guard?
Make no mistake, they will be better as a team because they are no longer starting a small forward at power forward but don't mistake that as getting anything close to equal value for Jeff Green.
Nate Robinson is the only thing which can prevent this trade from going down as one of the all-time worst in NBA history.
Because Russell Westbrook is big for a point guard, Oklahoma City can play Robinson at shooting guard, which may be best for him, and match him up against the other team's point guard on defense; and a lineup of Westbrook, Robinson, Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka would give them one of the most athletic of any in the NBA of guys who can actually play.
Let's see the Lakers keep up with that. But other than that, this trade is more than a head-scratcher.
A huge Celtics fan growing up, Thunder general manager Sam Presti is doing his best to pass Kevin McHale and become the man who traded his beloved Celtics the greatest number of assets at the cheapest possible price.
And with the Ray Allen trade and now this one, he may have topped him.
In a separate trade with Charlotte, Oklahoma City picked up Nazr Mohammed to boost their front court; and Boston got Nenad Krstic from Oklahoma City with Jeff Green.
Knicks to Denver: Everyone keeps saying that you have to have superstars to win, but few have ever really tested that theory. I have always believed that there is strength in numbers and that a team of eight to 10 really good players could be just as good as, if not better than, a team with a few superstars but other players not as good as that eight to 10.
Don't forget that George Karl is an outstanding coach.
I won't call him great because he hasn't won two championships, but you give a really good coach a bunch of good players, and there is no telling what can happen.
As for New York, they'll be fine as soon as Don Nelson Jr., I mean Mike D'Antoni, stops playing small ball.
Amar'e Stoudemire is not a center.
The sooner D'Antoni makes this adjustment, the better off New York will be.
Gerald Wallace to Portland: Gerald Wallace is a really good player. He has a lot of skills, will fit in nicely with what they are trying to do ('We'll use him ...') and is good insurance for Brandon Roy.
It will be very difficult to score on a front court featuring him, LaMarcus Aldridge and Marcus Camby, a definite step in the right direction for Portland.
Wallace puts them one step closer to contention.
Deron Williams to New Jersey: I'm not nearly as blown away by this move as others are. So New Jersey upgraded from a borderline-outstanding point guard to an outstanding one?
They still don't have any players and now, fewer draft picks. And I'm not even sure how much of an "upgrade" this really is.
Devin Harris can play.
Any boost they get from people wanting to come and play with Williams, assuming he is still there, could be offset by them not wanting to play for Avery Johnson, a coach who yells at his players like he's their daddy.
Mike Bibby for Kirk Hinrich: I've been down with the Jeff Teague Movement for a few weeks now.
Why these teams have talented players rotting on their benches will never be understood. Atlanta giving him more playing time was long overdue.
Hilton Armstrong is a nice prospect who should be better than any center on Atlanta's roster.
I'll believe Kirk Hinrich is an upgrade over Mike Bibby when I see it.
Baron Davis to Cleveland: This is the first mistake under Vinny Del Negro.
The Clippers should have traded for Jamario Moon and left Mo Williams in Cleveland. It's a bad sign because it is the first sign of the Clippers being the Clippers, meaning they were being cheap and made the move to save money and not win basketball games.
It does look like a weak draft, but in their position at this point in the season (no shot at the playoffs), you never opt out of the draft without seeing how the board lines up after the draft lottery.
And certainly not for Mo Williams, the guy who played about 12 good minutes in six games against Boston in the playoffs last year.
Marcus Thornton to Sacramento: This was a good move by Sacramento.
The last thing they need is a power forward with the front court that they have. They filled a position of need by trading a player who wasn't needed in Carl Landry.
I'm not sure what New Orleans was thinking here. Some games will have to be watched to find some answers.
Shane Battier to Memphis: Ishmael Smith, the throw in, may end up being the real key to this trade. He could fill Memphis' need at backup point guard.
What impact Battier will have on this team is unclear, but a talent upgrade always helps.
In Houston, this frees up playing time for Terrence Williams, Courtney Lee and Chase Budinger. I would have traded Kevin Martin too, but that's just me.
Hasheem Thabeet is a project, one most would say should be scrapped; but Houston has nothing to lose in seeing what he's got and trying to develop him.
Aaron Brooks to Phoenix: The impact of this trade can't be measured either.
Houston got Goran Dragic in return, one backup point guard for another. I need to see some games to come to any conclusion.
Finally, Chicago absolutely should have made a move for a shooting guard.
You don't go into the playoffs with just enough to try to win it all; you go in with more than enough, then you try to get some more after that.
Their margin of error is too close for comfort.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Instant Analysis: Anthony To The Big Apple
Isiah did it, baby!
No, I'm just kidding. My first reaction to this trade is that I'm glad it's over!
One week is about all of the emotional energy I have to spend on a trade rumor. And this Carmelo Anthony nonsense has been going on for about a year now.
As much as I tried to escape it and tune it out, I couldn't because every time I looked up someone was writing or talking about it; so I'm just really glad it's finally over!
I usually try to avoid snap judgments on moves like this because my initial reaction will always change one week later. But I'll go ahead and say something in the moment for a change.
A few days ago, when it started looking like the trade to New York was really going to happen, I started doing my due diligence. I went back and looked at film on Anthony, Amar'e Stoudemire, Anthony Randolph, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari and others and reviewed some stats.
Carmelo Anthony is really good.
Most people will say "duh" to that statement, but going all the way back to the 2003 draft, I've never been all that high on him compared to other stars in the league.
There was a brief time, at the start of the 2006-07 season, that he caught my attention and looked like the greatest player I had ever seen. Then he got suspended for sucker-punching Mardy Collins and never really got back to that level of play and hasn't been on my radar since.
But he has game.
My only criticisms of him are defensive. He loses track of his man from time to time when playing off the ball, and as Zach Lowe pointed out, his constant switching on defense can be described as somewhat lazy.
Other than that (and not addressing the shame of him not playing his entire career with the same team), what a steal!
To think that the Knicks gave up "too much" to get Carmelo Anthony is ludicrous.
Are you kidding me? Have you looked at this roster?
Without giving up Stoudemire, it would be impossible for New York to give up too much to get Anthony.
New York could have traded their entire roster other than Amar'e Stoudemire and invited people to walk in off the streets for open tryouts at Madison Square Garden to fill out the rest of the team, and they still wouldn't have given up too much to get Anthony.
This team is 28-26 and struggling to survive at the bottom half of the Eastern Conference playoff race. The rest of their roster and $6 might get you a good cup of coffee at Starbucks.
Looking at their potential starting lineup now, I love it: Chauncey Billups, Landry Fields, Anthony, Stoudemire and Ronny Turiaf.
Fields and Turiaf are key because they are hustle players who don't demand shots. Those qualities will go a long way with this group.
The potential issues, like coachability and chemistry between the two stars, will be addressed at a later time.
For now, this looks like a huge win for New York and the NBA and a huge loss for Denver and other second cities around the league.
Like Michael Douglas famously said in Wall Street, "Greed is good!"
The league has clearly gotten greedy here. It's no longer enough to have some of its big-market teams on the map; they want all of them on point and all at the same time.
They see the TV ratings and the media attention and the attendance when the "Heatles" go on the road, and they want more!
More! More! More!
Minnesota is another winner in this deal. I was high on Corey Brewer at one point, but getting rid of Brewer and his costly gambling on defense is addition by subtraction, and Anthony Randolph looks like possibly the best player leaving the Big Apple to me.
But keep in mind that I may feel differently 10 days from now.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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No, I'm just kidding. My first reaction to this trade is that I'm glad it's over!
One week is about all of the emotional energy I have to spend on a trade rumor. And this Carmelo Anthony nonsense has been going on for about a year now.
As much as I tried to escape it and tune it out, I couldn't because every time I looked up someone was writing or talking about it; so I'm just really glad it's finally over!
I usually try to avoid snap judgments on moves like this because my initial reaction will always change one week later. But I'll go ahead and say something in the moment for a change.
A few days ago, when it started looking like the trade to New York was really going to happen, I started doing my due diligence. I went back and looked at film on Anthony, Amar'e Stoudemire, Anthony Randolph, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari and others and reviewed some stats.
Carmelo Anthony is really good.
Most people will say "duh" to that statement, but going all the way back to the 2003 draft, I've never been all that high on him compared to other stars in the league.
There was a brief time, at the start of the 2006-07 season, that he caught my attention and looked like the greatest player I had ever seen. Then he got suspended for sucker-punching Mardy Collins and never really got back to that level of play and hasn't been on my radar since.
But he has game.
My only criticisms of him are defensive. He loses track of his man from time to time when playing off the ball, and as Zach Lowe pointed out, his constant switching on defense can be described as somewhat lazy.
Other than that (and not addressing the shame of him not playing his entire career with the same team), what a steal!
To think that the Knicks gave up "too much" to get Carmelo Anthony is ludicrous.
Are you kidding me? Have you looked at this roster?
Without giving up Stoudemire, it would be impossible for New York to give up too much to get Anthony.
New York could have traded their entire roster other than Amar'e Stoudemire and invited people to walk in off the streets for open tryouts at Madison Square Garden to fill out the rest of the team, and they still wouldn't have given up too much to get Anthony.
This team is 28-26 and struggling to survive at the bottom half of the Eastern Conference playoff race. The rest of their roster and $6 might get you a good cup of coffee at Starbucks.
Looking at their potential starting lineup now, I love it: Chauncey Billups, Landry Fields, Anthony, Stoudemire and Ronny Turiaf.
Fields and Turiaf are key because they are hustle players who don't demand shots. Those qualities will go a long way with this group.
The potential issues, like coachability and chemistry between the two stars, will be addressed at a later time.
For now, this looks like a huge win for New York and the NBA and a huge loss for Denver and other second cities around the league.
Like Michael Douglas famously said in Wall Street, "Greed is good!"
The league has clearly gotten greedy here. It's no longer enough to have some of its big-market teams on the map; they want all of them on point and all at the same time.
They see the TV ratings and the media attention and the attendance when the "Heatles" go on the road, and they want more!
More! More! More!
Minnesota is another winner in this deal. I was high on Corey Brewer at one point, but getting rid of Brewer and his costly gambling on defense is addition by subtraction, and Anthony Randolph looks like possibly the best player leaving the Big Apple to me.
But keep in mind that I may feel differently 10 days from now.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Friday, October 22, 2010
EASTERN CONFERENCE PREVIEW
BOSTON, ORLANDO, MIAMI TO DO BATTLE BACK EAST
Boston came out of nowhere last year and stole the conference. Although both Cleveland and Orlando had better records and home-court advantage, it wasn't enough.
Due to LeBron James checking out of the series starting in Game 5, Boston was able to crush Cleveland. But Orlando had no such excuse. The Celtics earned their victory over the Magic and their trip to the NBA Finals.
After the season, LeBron James announced his "Decision" to take his talents to South Beach and play with Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and the Miami Heat. Boston signed Jermaine and Shaquille O'Neal, and Orlando signed Quentin Richardson and Chris Duhon.
It would certainly appear that everyone else is playing for fourth place. As stated in the Western Conference Preview, there are far too many variables (injuries, coaching decisions, team chemistry, trades, etc.) to predict exact records and specific playoff seeds for an entire NBA season.
Instead, teams will be placed into broader categories to allow room for the various things which can alter the NBA landscape. This is more reasonable and still allows the intent to remain in place.
Here is how the East looks heading into the season.
CONTENDERS
The Eastern Conference champion will likely be one of these three.
Celtics -- Now that he appears to be healthy again, Kevin Garnett has to focus on improving his poor defensive rebounding numbers. As Pat Riley might say, no rebounds, no rings. It has been revealed that Jermaine O'Neal played while injured during the playoffs last season, which explains his miserable performance. Doc Rivers will have to rely on his young players to carry the team through the regular season and at the same time try to win home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. It will be a tough juggling act.
Heat -- Miami deserves all of the credit in the world for putting this team together. They are built exactly like the '90s Bulls, with not-so-talented point guards and centers but a dominant shooting guard, small forward and power forward. Coach Erik Spoelstra showed last year that he has what it takes to succeed at a high level. I think he'll be just fine.
Magic -- To win a championship, Stan Van Gundy is going to have to expand the Orlando offense beyond just (1) the pick-and-roll, (2) Dwight Howard down low and (3) letting somebody go one-on-one. This just isn't enough against good, playoff defenses. Orlando actually struggled in the first round against Charlotte's defense but was able to win the series because Charlotte didn't have any firepower and because Jameer Nelson absolutely dominated Raymond Felton. Van Gundy needs to look at coaches like Alvin Gentry, Nate McMillan, Phil Jackson and Doc Rivers and come up with (or steal) some more inventive plays for Orlando to run.
4-8 TEAMS
These teams will battle for the remaining playoff spots but won't seriously compete for the conference crown.
Hawks -- Charles Barkley once said that he felt like all Philadelphia wanted to do was put him out on the floor and go to the playoffs and lose every year. That is the state of the Atlanta franchise. They aren't serious about winning a championship. All they want to do is go to the playoffs and lose.
Bobcats -- Charlotte made the playoffs for the first time in franchise history last year and will probably be back this season. Gerald Wallace is just fantastic, and Tyrus Thomas is coming into his own. DJ Augustin also has gotten better. Stephen Jackson has to be more careful with the basketball.
Bulls -- This is another huge bandwagon which I am not on. The new Bash Brothers Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah will no doubt make their presence known, and Derrick Rose is all that they say he is and more. But beyond these three players, there isn't nearly enough to make Chicago anything close to an elite team.
Cavaliers -- LeBron James didn't win 60+ games by himself in each of the past two seasons. There is still some talent left. Cleveland could sneak into the playoffs.
Pistons -- Detroit will be fine, but they really need a backup point guard to make this engine purr. This is especially true because neither Rodney Stuckey nor Will Bynum has mastered the position yet, particularly in the half-court offense. Detroit may need to bring Chucky Atkins back.
Pacers -- TJ Ford can't get healthy fast enough. The sooner they get Paul George ready, the better off Indiana will be; and Roy Hibbert has to continue to improve. Indiana still hasn't picked up the rebounder/shot-blocker they need at power forward to really take off.
Bucks -- Milwuakee is the one team which can break the Boston-Miami-Orlando triangle. Unfortunately, they have already been decimated by injuries. Darington Hobson will miss the entire season with multiple hip surguries; Andrew Bogut is still working his way back from his elbow injury; Corey Maggette and John Salmons have both missed the entire preaseason so far; and Michael Redd won't be ready to go until February. Milwaukee needs a healthy Michael Redd to be elite.
Knicks -- New York is not talented enough to be declared a playoff team but is too talented to be written off completely. They are one more good off-season away from being a guaranteed playoff team.
76ers -- To become a true contender, Philadelphia is going to have to hire a better coach, upgrade the point guard position and improve their depth. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. They look like a team that can make the playoffs.
Wizards -- The pieces are there; it is up to coach Flip Saunders to put them together. Based on the way he used his rotations during the preseason, it doesn't look like he is going to be able to pull it off. Washington also looks like they are going to need a new coach.
HARRISON BARNES TEAMS
These are the teams with the best chance to land projected No. 1 pick Harrison Barnes in the 2011 NBA Draft.
Nets -- They missed out on John Wall in 2010. They'll be back again next year, hoping to improve their luck.
Raptors -- It would be interesting to compare the talent on their first roster in franchise history to this one. They appear to be going backward.
Note: Teams listed alphabetically by city in each category.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Boston came out of nowhere last year and stole the conference. Although both Cleveland and Orlando had better records and home-court advantage, it wasn't enough.
Due to LeBron James checking out of the series starting in Game 5, Boston was able to crush Cleveland. But Orlando had no such excuse. The Celtics earned their victory over the Magic and their trip to the NBA Finals.
After the season, LeBron James announced his "Decision" to take his talents to South Beach and play with Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and the Miami Heat. Boston signed Jermaine and Shaquille O'Neal, and Orlando signed Quentin Richardson and Chris Duhon.
It would certainly appear that everyone else is playing for fourth place. As stated in the Western Conference Preview, there are far too many variables (injuries, coaching decisions, team chemistry, trades, etc.) to predict exact records and specific playoff seeds for an entire NBA season.
Instead, teams will be placed into broader categories to allow room for the various things which can alter the NBA landscape. This is more reasonable and still allows the intent to remain in place.
Here is how the East looks heading into the season.
CONTENDERS
The Eastern Conference champion will likely be one of these three.
Celtics -- Now that he appears to be healthy again, Kevin Garnett has to focus on improving his poor defensive rebounding numbers. As Pat Riley might say, no rebounds, no rings. It has been revealed that Jermaine O'Neal played while injured during the playoffs last season, which explains his miserable performance. Doc Rivers will have to rely on his young players to carry the team through the regular season and at the same time try to win home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. It will be a tough juggling act.
Heat -- Miami deserves all of the credit in the world for putting this team together. They are built exactly like the '90s Bulls, with not-so-talented point guards and centers but a dominant shooting guard, small forward and power forward. Coach Erik Spoelstra showed last year that he has what it takes to succeed at a high level. I think he'll be just fine.
Magic -- To win a championship, Stan Van Gundy is going to have to expand the Orlando offense beyond just (1) the pick-and-roll, (2) Dwight Howard down low and (3) letting somebody go one-on-one. This just isn't enough against good, playoff defenses. Orlando actually struggled in the first round against Charlotte's defense but was able to win the series because Charlotte didn't have any firepower and because Jameer Nelson absolutely dominated Raymond Felton. Van Gundy needs to look at coaches like Alvin Gentry, Nate McMillan, Phil Jackson and Doc Rivers and come up with (or steal) some more inventive plays for Orlando to run.
4-8 TEAMS
These teams will battle for the remaining playoff spots but won't seriously compete for the conference crown.
Hawks -- Charles Barkley once said that he felt like all Philadelphia wanted to do was put him out on the floor and go to the playoffs and lose every year. That is the state of the Atlanta franchise. They aren't serious about winning a championship. All they want to do is go to the playoffs and lose.
Bobcats -- Charlotte made the playoffs for the first time in franchise history last year and will probably be back this season. Gerald Wallace is just fantastic, and Tyrus Thomas is coming into his own. DJ Augustin also has gotten better. Stephen Jackson has to be more careful with the basketball.
Bulls -- This is another huge bandwagon which I am not on. The new Bash Brothers Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah will no doubt make their presence known, and Derrick Rose is all that they say he is and more. But beyond these three players, there isn't nearly enough to make Chicago anything close to an elite team.
Cavaliers -- LeBron James didn't win 60+ games by himself in each of the past two seasons. There is still some talent left. Cleveland could sneak into the playoffs.
Pistons -- Detroit will be fine, but they really need a backup point guard to make this engine purr. This is especially true because neither Rodney Stuckey nor Will Bynum has mastered the position yet, particularly in the half-court offense. Detroit may need to bring Chucky Atkins back.
Pacers -- TJ Ford can't get healthy fast enough. The sooner they get Paul George ready, the better off Indiana will be; and Roy Hibbert has to continue to improve. Indiana still hasn't picked up the rebounder/shot-blocker they need at power forward to really take off.
Bucks -- Milwuakee is the one team which can break the Boston-Miami-Orlando triangle. Unfortunately, they have already been decimated by injuries. Darington Hobson will miss the entire season with multiple hip surguries; Andrew Bogut is still working his way back from his elbow injury; Corey Maggette and John Salmons have both missed the entire preaseason so far; and Michael Redd won't be ready to go until February. Milwaukee needs a healthy Michael Redd to be elite.
Knicks -- New York is not talented enough to be declared a playoff team but is too talented to be written off completely. They are one more good off-season away from being a guaranteed playoff team.
76ers -- To become a true contender, Philadelphia is going to have to hire a better coach, upgrade the point guard position and improve their depth. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. They look like a team that can make the playoffs.
Wizards -- The pieces are there; it is up to coach Flip Saunders to put them together. Based on the way he used his rotations during the preseason, it doesn't look like he is going to be able to pull it off. Washington also looks like they are going to need a new coach.
HARRISON BARNES TEAMS
These are the teams with the best chance to land projected No. 1 pick Harrison Barnes in the 2011 NBA Draft.
Nets -- They missed out on John Wall in 2010. They'll be back again next year, hoping to improve their luck.
Raptors -- It would be interesting to compare the talent on their first roster in franchise history to this one. They appear to be going backward.
Note: Teams listed alphabetically by city in each category.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Friday, October 15, 2010
WESTERN CONFERENCE PREVIEW
DALLAS, PORTLAND WILL CHALLENGE THE LAKERS OUT WEST
Last season, Oklahoma City and Phoenix put real scares into the Lakers but were unable to prevent the defending champions from eventually moving on. Los Angeles was just too much for the West and has been for the past three seasons.
Teams have rebuilt and reloaded, all with the goal of knocking Los Angeles off of their mighty throne. Some team may succeed, but most will fail miserably.
There are far too many variables (injuries, coaching decisions, team chemistry, trades, etc.) to predict exact records and specific playoff seeds for an entire NBA season.
Instead, teams will be placed into broader categories to allow room for the various things which can alter the NBA landscape. This is more reasonable and still allows the intent to remain in place.
Here is how the West shakes out.
CONTENDERS
The Western Conference champion will likely be one of these three.
Mavericks -- Having an entire season to play together and develop chemistry will do wonders for Dallas. Going into this year's playoffs, they will be more battle-tested and battle-ready. Tyson Chandler gives them a dimension which they have never had. Say good-bye to the traditional, layup-line defense we have come to expect from Dallas.
Lakers -- As if they weren't already good enough, the Lakers went out and added Theo Ratliff and Steve Blake as backups. They know everyone is gunning for them, and they are gunning right back.
Trail Blazers -- Portland is probably a year away, but they are here because they are good enough to give the Lakers a real scare, one more real than Oklahoma City or Phoenix last year, one like the scare they gave Los Angeles in 2000. All of this is dependent on Greg Oden, who unfortunately at this time has no timetable for his return.
4-8 TEAMS
These teams will battle for the remaining playoff spots but won't seriously challenge for the conference crown.
Nuggets -- Denver probably won't make it out of the first round again this year. Their biggest problem is that they are extremely undisciplined defensively, especially Carmelo Anthony and JR Smith. They also lack size and matching parts up front.
Warriors -- In a prior article, the exact reason why Golden State lost so many games last year was explained. The problem has been corrected, so you can pretty much take anything which happened last year and throw it out the window. Golden State has built one of the most talented and exciting rosters in the league.
Rockets -- Houston is solid at the three most important positions in basketball: coach, point guard and center. They are so solid that their backup point guard Kyle Lowry and their backup center Brad Miller could start for many teams. The problem is that they are very average at shooting guard, small forward and power forward.
Clippers -- Baron Davis, Blake Griffin and Chris Kaman will give Los Angeles three of the best players on the floor every night against every opponent, even against that other Los Angeles team.* The Clippers also have Randy Foye backing up Baron Davis, Eric Gordon and Al-Farouq Aminu. Those six players will take Los Angeles a very long way.
Grizzlies -- Memphis has a pretty good team, but the West is tough. They are probably two players away from being a guaranteed playoff team. They shouldn't take a step back but may not move forward much either.
Timberwolves -- 1-12, this is the best team Minnesota has ever had; but that doesn't mean much because players 9-12 rarely make an impact on the game. It does speak to the organization's ability to put a team together. They have all sorts of depth and versatility and could be very dangerous this year.
Hornets -- The biggest weakness of New Orleans is that they don't have a good backup for Chris Paul. Without a good backup, Chris Paul will have to play lights-out for 40+ minutes every night for the team to be competitive; and this wear-and-tear will eventually catch up to and cost him and the team. Willie Green is not a point guard; he is a short shooting guard. There is a tremendous difference between the two.
Thunder -- This is the biggest bandwagon in the NBA right now, and I'm not on it. While other teams got better, Oklahoma City appears to have stayed the same, which means they got worse. Has anyone noticed that they are still starting Thabo Sefolosha at shooting guard?
Suns -- One thing a NBA team will never miss is a scorer. Phoenix has players standing in line to take the additional shots Amar'e Stoudemire left behind. And since he didn't play defense or rebound anyway, you would think that the team wouldn't miss him one iota. But a team is a funny thing. Some things just go together, like Shrek and Donkey. This is the hardest team to pick. The safest thing to say is that they almost certainly won't make it back to the conference finals this season.
Spurs -- Tim Duncan needs help. San Antonio couldn't have imagined that they would rely on Antonio McDyess as much as they did in the playoffs last year. Now they will be counting on rookie Tiago Splitter to give them the size they need to help Tim Duncan up front.
Jazz -- The big question for Utah is did they improve enough to compete with or beat Los Angeles in the playoffs? Will Gordon Hayward, Raja Bell and Al Jefferson be able to do what Wesley Matthews and Carlos Boozer couldn't? Love Gordon Hayward but I wouldn't bet on it.
HARRISON BARNES TEAMS
North Carolina freshman Harrison Barnes is projected as the No. 1 pick in the 2011 NBA Draft. Eventually, seven western teams will be in the lottery to draft him.
But there is one which stands above all others in the quest to attain Harrison Barnes and can be declared out of the running for the playoffs before the season even begins.
Kings -- It is sad to see this former conference power sink to such miserable lows. By the end of the season, we'll be calling them the Sacrament Paupers.
Note: teams listed alphabetically by city in each category.
*This method of ranking the best players from competing teams in order comes from Colin Cowherd.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Last season, Oklahoma City and Phoenix put real scares into the Lakers but were unable to prevent the defending champions from eventually moving on. Los Angeles was just too much for the West and has been for the past three seasons.
Teams have rebuilt and reloaded, all with the goal of knocking Los Angeles off of their mighty throne. Some team may succeed, but most will fail miserably.
There are far too many variables (injuries, coaching decisions, team chemistry, trades, etc.) to predict exact records and specific playoff seeds for an entire NBA season.
Instead, teams will be placed into broader categories to allow room for the various things which can alter the NBA landscape. This is more reasonable and still allows the intent to remain in place.
Here is how the West shakes out.
CONTENDERS
The Western Conference champion will likely be one of these three.
Mavericks -- Having an entire season to play together and develop chemistry will do wonders for Dallas. Going into this year's playoffs, they will be more battle-tested and battle-ready. Tyson Chandler gives them a dimension which they have never had. Say good-bye to the traditional, layup-line defense we have come to expect from Dallas.
Lakers -- As if they weren't already good enough, the Lakers went out and added Theo Ratliff and Steve Blake as backups. They know everyone is gunning for them, and they are gunning right back.
Trail Blazers -- Portland is probably a year away, but they are here because they are good enough to give the Lakers a real scare, one more real than Oklahoma City or Phoenix last year, one like the scare they gave Los Angeles in 2000. All of this is dependent on Greg Oden, who unfortunately at this time has no timetable for his return.
4-8 TEAMS
These teams will battle for the remaining playoff spots but won't seriously challenge for the conference crown.
Nuggets -- Denver probably won't make it out of the first round again this year. Their biggest problem is that they are extremely undisciplined defensively, especially Carmelo Anthony and JR Smith. They also lack size and matching parts up front.
Warriors -- In a prior article, the exact reason why Golden State lost so many games last year was explained. The problem has been corrected, so you can pretty much take anything which happened last year and throw it out the window. Golden State has built one of the most talented and exciting rosters in the league.
Rockets -- Houston is solid at the three most important positions in basketball: coach, point guard and center. They are so solid that their backup point guard Kyle Lowry and their backup center Brad Miller could start for many teams. The problem is that they are very average at shooting guard, small forward and power forward.
Clippers -- Baron Davis, Blake Griffin and Chris Kaman will give Los Angeles three of the best players on the floor every night against every opponent, even against that other Los Angeles team.* The Clippers also have Randy Foye backing up Baron Davis, Eric Gordon and Al-Farouq Aminu. Those six players will take Los Angeles a very long way.
Grizzlies -- Memphis has a pretty good team, but the West is tough. They are probably two players away from being a guaranteed playoff team. They shouldn't take a step back but may not move forward much either.
Timberwolves -- 1-12, this is the best team Minnesota has ever had; but that doesn't mean much because players 9-12 rarely make an impact on the game. It does speak to the organization's ability to put a team together. They have all sorts of depth and versatility and could be very dangerous this year.
Hornets -- The biggest weakness of New Orleans is that they don't have a good backup for Chris Paul. Without a good backup, Chris Paul will have to play lights-out for 40+ minutes every night for the team to be competitive; and this wear-and-tear will eventually catch up to and cost him and the team. Willie Green is not a point guard; he is a short shooting guard. There is a tremendous difference between the two.
Thunder -- This is the biggest bandwagon in the NBA right now, and I'm not on it. While other teams got better, Oklahoma City appears to have stayed the same, which means they got worse. Has anyone noticed that they are still starting Thabo Sefolosha at shooting guard?
Suns -- One thing a NBA team will never miss is a scorer. Phoenix has players standing in line to take the additional shots Amar'e Stoudemire left behind. And since he didn't play defense or rebound anyway, you would think that the team wouldn't miss him one iota. But a team is a funny thing. Some things just go together, like Shrek and Donkey. This is the hardest team to pick. The safest thing to say is that they almost certainly won't make it back to the conference finals this season.
Spurs -- Tim Duncan needs help. San Antonio couldn't have imagined that they would rely on Antonio McDyess as much as they did in the playoffs last year. Now they will be counting on rookie Tiago Splitter to give them the size they need to help Tim Duncan up front.
Jazz -- The big question for Utah is did they improve enough to compete with or beat Los Angeles in the playoffs? Will Gordon Hayward, Raja Bell and Al Jefferson be able to do what Wesley Matthews and Carlos Boozer couldn't? Love Gordon Hayward but I wouldn't bet on it.
HARRISON BARNES TEAMS
North Carolina freshman Harrison Barnes is projected as the No. 1 pick in the 2011 NBA Draft. Eventually, seven western teams will be in the lottery to draft him.
But there is one which stands above all others in the quest to attain Harrison Barnes and can be declared out of the running for the playoffs before the season even begins.
Kings -- It is sad to see this former conference power sink to such miserable lows. By the end of the season, we'll be calling them the Sacrament Paupers.
Note: teams listed alphabetically by city in each category.
*This method of ranking the best players from competing teams in order comes from Colin Cowherd.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Friday, September 3, 2010
McGrady Puts Pistons In Driver's Seat
The Milwaukee Bucks and Chicago Bulls officially have some competition. The Detroit Pistons' signing of Tracy McGrady changes the entire balance of power in the Central Division and may decide the eventual champion.
The Pistons were already picked here to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA, and that was before they signed Tracy McGrady. The addition of McGrady only makes that pick more certain and the improvement more dramatic.
The Bulls worked McGrady out but eventually decided not to sign him and instead opted for Keith Bogans. Choosing Bogans over McGrady is a catastrophic error in judgment and player evaluation and will cost Chicago dearly.
Without McGrady or some player like him, they simply aren't that impressive. A healthy Tracy McGrady makes the Bulls an elite team. No McGrady makes them a team which may be able to win a playoff series and scare a team in the second round but do nothing more.
It looks like Chicago will wait until at least next year to bring in another top player to play with Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Carlos Boozer and the others and try to become a championship team.
The status of the Milwaukee Bucks hasn't changed since early July: They are a healthy Michael Redd away from being elite. It has been reported that Michael Redd isn't coming back until February, a wise move but one which may cost Milwaukee in the short term.
That leaves the Detroit Pistons. The Pistons were picked to improve because of the reason why they lost so many games last year: injuries to key players like Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince.
With those players coming back healthy and the addition of No.7 pick Greg Monroe and now Tracy McGrady, Detroit is in prime position to take the Central Division crown.
The only question left to be answered is ... How much does McGrady have left?
The answer to that question is slowly coming forward.
The Pistons have what they consider a secret weapon in strength-and-conditioning coach Arnie Kander, and they believe that with Kander's guidance, Tracy McGrady will be just fine.
It should again be pointed out that McGrady is still five months away from the two-year mark, when players start feeling like themselves again, on his microfracture surgery.
Kander did some research on McGrady and had two things to say which should trouble Bucks and Bulls fans: (1) He believes McGrady has a good chance to revive his career with the Pistons, and (2) "From all the people I’ve spoken to, he’s not someone who cuts corners."
That means that whatever Tracy McGrady has to do to get his game back, he is going to do it and do it to the best of his ability.
Coach John Kuester watched McGrady work out recently and came away impressed and optimistic about the season.
He's not the only one.
The addition of Tracy McGrady makes Detroit absolutely loaded: Rodney Stuckey, McGrady, Prince, Hamilton, Ben Wallace, Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva and Greg Monroe, plus the young guys coming off the bench.
It is an abundance of talent.
Detroit is at least a playoff team and could come close to being one of the top teams in the East. Few teams are as deep and talented. They also have great team chemistry, something they will need with all of these players who deserve minutes.
McGrady may never get back to his Orlando level, but 80% of Tracy McGrady is better than 90% of the NBA.
He is also a veteran now with a high basketball IQ, meaning he can beat the opposition with his mind like he used to beat them with his speed and athleticism.
Here is footage of McGrady in his prime* with the Orlando Magic, an outstanding video of his trials and tribulations while fighting injury with the Houston Rockets and a radio interview he did after signing with the Detroit Pistons (scroll to bottom).
The Arnie Kander "Eagle Eye" article was posted by John Schuhmann on the league website, and the radio interview was posted by Bill Ingram at HoopsWorld.
The Pistons were already picked here to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA, and that was before they signed Tracy McGrady. The addition of McGrady only makes that pick more certain and the improvement more dramatic.
The Bulls worked McGrady out but eventually decided not to sign him and instead opted for Keith Bogans. Choosing Bogans over McGrady is a catastrophic error in judgment and player evaluation and will cost Chicago dearly.
Without McGrady or some player like him, they simply aren't that impressive. A healthy Tracy McGrady makes the Bulls an elite team. No McGrady makes them a team which may be able to win a playoff series and scare a team in the second round but do nothing more.
It looks like Chicago will wait until at least next year to bring in another top player to play with Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Carlos Boozer and the others and try to become a championship team.
The status of the Milwaukee Bucks hasn't changed since early July: They are a healthy Michael Redd away from being elite. It has been reported that Michael Redd isn't coming back until February, a wise move but one which may cost Milwaukee in the short term.
That leaves the Detroit Pistons. The Pistons were picked to improve because of the reason why they lost so many games last year: injuries to key players like Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince.
With those players coming back healthy and the addition of No.7 pick Greg Monroe and now Tracy McGrady, Detroit is in prime position to take the Central Division crown.
The only question left to be answered is ... How much does McGrady have left?
The answer to that question is slowly coming forward.
The Pistons have what they consider a secret weapon in strength-and-conditioning coach Arnie Kander, and they believe that with Kander's guidance, Tracy McGrady will be just fine.
It should again be pointed out that McGrady is still five months away from the two-year mark, when players start feeling like themselves again, on his microfracture surgery.
Kander did some research on McGrady and had two things to say which should trouble Bucks and Bulls fans: (1) He believes McGrady has a good chance to revive his career with the Pistons, and (2) "From all the people I’ve spoken to, he’s not someone who cuts corners."
That means that whatever Tracy McGrady has to do to get his game back, he is going to do it and do it to the best of his ability.
Coach John Kuester watched McGrady work out recently and came away impressed and optimistic about the season.
He's not the only one.
The addition of Tracy McGrady makes Detroit absolutely loaded: Rodney Stuckey, McGrady, Prince, Hamilton, Ben Wallace, Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva and Greg Monroe, plus the young guys coming off the bench.
It is an abundance of talent.
Detroit is at least a playoff team and could come close to being one of the top teams in the East. Few teams are as deep and talented. They also have great team chemistry, something they will need with all of these players who deserve minutes.
McGrady may never get back to his Orlando level, but 80% of Tracy McGrady is better than 90% of the NBA.
He is also a veteran now with a high basketball IQ, meaning he can beat the opposition with his mind like he used to beat them with his speed and athleticism.
Here is footage of McGrady in his prime* with the Orlando Magic, an outstanding video of his trials and tribulations while fighting injury with the Houston Rockets and a radio interview he did after signing with the Detroit Pistons (scroll to bottom).
The Arnie Kander "Eagle Eye" article was posted by John Schuhmann on the league website, and the radio interview was posted by Bill Ingram at HoopsWorld.
*Video update 2-25-2012, 2:20 PM
Saturday, August 14, 2010
Dissecting Pacers vs Lakers And Darren Collison
The Indiana Pacers acquired point guard Darren Collison from the New Orleans Hornets this week.
There have been so many things written this off-season about the Pacers and their need for a point guard that I almost started to believe it.
Then I went back and looked at the game tape.
Since the Los Angeles Lakers have been the best team in the NBA for the past two seasons, and there isn't much video of other teams available, why not start there?
What better way to measure yourself than against the best, right?
The Pacers played the Lakers in Los Angeles on March 2, 2010, and were crushed 122-99. They were also punished at home on January 27, 118-96.
Only the game at Los Angeles will be used, but for those who want to continue dissecting on their own, here is the game at Indiana.
THE FUN BEGINS (:38 on the video player)
UPDATE: 6/10/2011, 12:35 PM
The original video used for this analysis has been removed by the user. You can still see many of the same plays described below but at different times on the video player.
Looking at Dahntay Jones' box score, you would think he had a pretty good game. Looking at the game, you would know otherwise. At :38, the Pacers are ahead 24-20.
Jones allows Kobe Bryant to beat him off the dribble. This forces Troy Murphy to have to come over and help, which leaves Murphy's man Pau Gasol in position to tip in the offensive rebound.
Jones then drives to the basket against Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol and gets his shot blocked. This leads to a transition three-pointer by Jordan Farmar.
After that, while paying too much attention to Bryant being defended by Earl Watson, Jones loses track of his man Farmar, who cuts to the basket and gets a bucket off of a Bryant pass.
Not done yet, Jones then allows Lakers guard Shannon Brown to beat him off the dribble for a runner off the glass. Bryant beating Jones off the dribble could be written off as the best player in the NBA, but how do you explain this?
At 1:12, Jones has the ball taken from him by Shannon Brown. This leads to a fast-break layup by Adam Morrison. The score is now 33-30, Los Angeles.
So the Lakers went on a 13-6 run, and 11 of the 13 points Indiana allowed were directly caused by Dahntay Jones' mistakes. Dahntay Jones does not play point guard.
NEXT UP: COACH JIM O'BRIEN (1:44)
Indiana coach Jim O'Brien foolishly tries to defend Andrew Bynum with Troy Murphy. The result? A catch-and-finish reverse-layup and a back-down dunk. Don't mean to laugh, but this is really funny, literally a comedy of errors.
BRANDON RUSH TAKES HIS TURN (2:04)
Determined to get in on the act, Pacer Brandon Rush gets backed into the paint by Bryant for a left-handed jump-hook. He then commits a turnover which leads to a transition three-pointer by Derek Fisher. At 2:43, Rush again allows Bryant to take him to the basket for two.
DANNY GRANGER TOO (2:49)
Team star Danny Granger actually started his mistakes a while ago. At :20, he gets beaten for a dunk by Ron Artest on a cut to the basket and runs into Earl Watson, who came over to double Pau Gasol, in the process. Again, I don't mean to laugh.
Granger's series of mistakes starts at 2:49. He gets beaten off the dribble by Ron Artest for a layup. At 3:07, Granger holds the ball in front of Artest like Artest hasn't been the best perimeter defender in the NBA for the past decade or more.
As expected, Artest swipes the ball from him. On the play, Kobe Bryant is fouled on a fast-break dunk attempt and makes both free throws. In between the prior two plays, Josh McRoberts proves he can't guard Andrew Bynum either and gets dunked on just like Troy Murphy did.
At 3:28, Dahntay Jones is back again, allowing a turn-around by Ron Artest before Shannon Brown hits a three-pointer on him at 3:46. Danny Granger then again forgets who Ron Artest is and has the ball taken from him and passed to Farmar for an open-court dunk.
DIDIER ILUNGA-MBENGA (4:11)
To put the icing on the cake, Roy Hibbert allows Didier Ilunga-Mbenga to hit a turn-around jumper on him, not Pau Gasol, not Andrew Bynum, not Lamar Odom, Didier Ilunga-Mbenga.
There have been so many things written this off-season about the Pacers and their need for a point guard that I almost started to believe it.
Then I went back and looked at the game tape.
Since the Los Angeles Lakers have been the best team in the NBA for the past two seasons, and there isn't much video of other teams available, why not start there?
What better way to measure yourself than against the best, right?
The Pacers played the Lakers in Los Angeles on March 2, 2010, and were crushed 122-99. They were also punished at home on January 27, 118-96.
Only the game at Los Angeles will be used, but for those who want to continue dissecting on their own, here is the game at Indiana.
THE FUN BEGINS (:38 on the video player)
UPDATE: 6/10/2011, 12:35 PM
The original video used for this analysis has been removed by the user. You can still see many of the same plays described below but at different times on the video player.
Looking at Dahntay Jones' box score, you would think he had a pretty good game. Looking at the game, you would know otherwise. At :38, the Pacers are ahead 24-20.
Jones allows Kobe Bryant to beat him off the dribble. This forces Troy Murphy to have to come over and help, which leaves Murphy's man Pau Gasol in position to tip in the offensive rebound.
Jones then drives to the basket against Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol and gets his shot blocked. This leads to a transition three-pointer by Jordan Farmar.
After that, while paying too much attention to Bryant being defended by Earl Watson, Jones loses track of his man Farmar, who cuts to the basket and gets a bucket off of a Bryant pass.
Not done yet, Jones then allows Lakers guard Shannon Brown to beat him off the dribble for a runner off the glass. Bryant beating Jones off the dribble could be written off as the best player in the NBA, but how do you explain this?
At 1:12, Jones has the ball taken from him by Shannon Brown. This leads to a fast-break layup by Adam Morrison. The score is now 33-30, Los Angeles.
So the Lakers went on a 13-6 run, and 11 of the 13 points Indiana allowed were directly caused by Dahntay Jones' mistakes. Dahntay Jones does not play point guard.
NEXT UP: COACH JIM O'BRIEN (1:44)
Indiana coach Jim O'Brien foolishly tries to defend Andrew Bynum with Troy Murphy. The result? A catch-and-finish reverse-layup and a back-down dunk. Don't mean to laugh, but this is really funny, literally a comedy of errors.
BRANDON RUSH TAKES HIS TURN (2:04)
Determined to get in on the act, Pacer Brandon Rush gets backed into the paint by Bryant for a left-handed jump-hook. He then commits a turnover which leads to a transition three-pointer by Derek Fisher. At 2:43, Rush again allows Bryant to take him to the basket for two.
DANNY GRANGER TOO (2:49)
Team star Danny Granger actually started his mistakes a while ago. At :20, he gets beaten for a dunk by Ron Artest on a cut to the basket and runs into Earl Watson, who came over to double Pau Gasol, in the process. Again, I don't mean to laugh.
Granger's series of mistakes starts at 2:49. He gets beaten off the dribble by Ron Artest for a layup. At 3:07, Granger holds the ball in front of Artest like Artest hasn't been the best perimeter defender in the NBA for the past decade or more.
As expected, Artest swipes the ball from him. On the play, Kobe Bryant is fouled on a fast-break dunk attempt and makes both free throws. In between the prior two plays, Josh McRoberts proves he can't guard Andrew Bynum either and gets dunked on just like Troy Murphy did.
At 3:28, Dahntay Jones is back again, allowing a turn-around by Ron Artest before Shannon Brown hits a three-pointer on him at 3:46. Danny Granger then again forgets who Ron Artest is and has the ball taken from him and passed to Farmar for an open-court dunk.
DIDIER ILUNGA-MBENGA (4:11)
To put the icing on the cake, Roy Hibbert allows Didier Ilunga-Mbenga to hit a turn-around jumper on him, not Pau Gasol, not Andrew Bynum, not Lamar Odom, Didier Ilunga-Mbenga.
INDIVIDUAL PLUS/MINUS OR IPM
The Pacers lost this game by 23 points. Let's add up the individual plus/minuses and see what happens.
Dahntay Jones, -16: Gasol offensive rebound (-2); Farmar three-pointer (-3); Farmar cut to basket (-2); Shannon Brown runner (-2); Morrison layup (-2); Artest turn-around (-2); Brown three-pointer (-3).
Troy Murphy, -4; Josh McRoberts, -2; or Jim O'Brien and/or Larry Bird, -6: Bynum reverse-layup (-2); Bynum dunk (-2); Bynum dunk (-2).
It looks like coach O'Brien didn't have a choice but to defend Bynum with Murphy and McRoberts with Hibbert in foul trouble. The Pacers don't have the big men to defend the Lakers, blame who you want.
Brandon Rush, -7: Bryant jump-hook (-2); Fisher three-pointer (-3); Bryant drive (-2).
Danny Granger, -8: Artest dunk (-2); Artest layup (-2); Artest steal leading to Bryant free throws (-2); Artest steal leading to Farmar dunk (-2).
Roy Hibbert, -2: Mbenga turn-around (-2).
As you can plainly see, not one of the errors in this comedy of errors was committed by a point guard, although I am certain they made their fair share of mistakes too.
You have to win with the team you have, so the fact that the Pacers don't have the big men to match up with the Lakers is no excuse. Miami and Charlotte didn't have the big men either, but they went 2-2 against Los Angeles.
Indiana could have won this game by simply eliminating mistakes. Dahntay Jones alone accounts for almost the entire point differential (-16 for him to -23 for the game).
So instead of blaming the point guard or blaming the big men, the Pacers could (1) play better defense, (2) play Jones fewer minutes or cut him, (3) make sure Danny Granger gets and/or pays attention to and/or remembers a good scouting report and (4) take better care of the basketball.
This also is the perfect example of why I support plus/minus based on individual and not five-man-unit performance when evaluating individual players.*
It is not the fault of the other Pacers on the court with Dahntay Jones that he made so many mistakes. Why should they have their ratings dragged down by his play?
And why should anyone other than Danny Granger lose two plus/minus points because he had the ball stolen from him by Ron Artest? Contrary to what the Indiana Pacers bloggers and sportswriters will tell you, it wasn't Earl Watson's fault; he was all the way on the other side of the court.
So all of you Pacers fans and others celebrating the trade for Darren Collison, you better wake up and smell the coffee. When Larry Bird says he's note done, he means it! And he better not be done, not with this team.
I picked Indiana to be one of the most improved teams this year and will stick to it. This was before they got Darren Collison. Collison helps because every good team needs two point guards, but he is no savior.
The Pacers' only hope right now is No. 10 pick Paul George. The Pacers better hope and pray he is as good as advertised, otherwise ... more Shakespearean (writer of The Comedy of Errors) theater.
Note: It is understood that these are Lakers highlights and don't tell the full story of the game. It is also fully understood that scoring games is subjective; one man's base hit is another man's error. But as the old saying goes, I call them like I see them. Finally, I tried to include only the most obvious errors and mistakes; so you may see something which I didn't include.
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The Pacers lost this game by 23 points. Let's add up the individual plus/minuses and see what happens.
Dahntay Jones, -16: Gasol offensive rebound (-2); Farmar three-pointer (-3); Farmar cut to basket (-2); Shannon Brown runner (-2); Morrison layup (-2); Artest turn-around (-2); Brown three-pointer (-3).
Troy Murphy, -4; Josh McRoberts, -2; or Jim O'Brien and/or Larry Bird, -6: Bynum reverse-layup (-2); Bynum dunk (-2); Bynum dunk (-2).
It looks like coach O'Brien didn't have a choice but to defend Bynum with Murphy and McRoberts with Hibbert in foul trouble. The Pacers don't have the big men to defend the Lakers, blame who you want.
Brandon Rush, -7: Bryant jump-hook (-2); Fisher three-pointer (-3); Bryant drive (-2).
Danny Granger, -8: Artest dunk (-2); Artest layup (-2); Artest steal leading to Bryant free throws (-2); Artest steal leading to Farmar dunk (-2).
Roy Hibbert, -2: Mbenga turn-around (-2).
As you can plainly see, not one of the errors in this comedy of errors was committed by a point guard, although I am certain they made their fair share of mistakes too.
You have to win with the team you have, so the fact that the Pacers don't have the big men to match up with the Lakers is no excuse. Miami and Charlotte didn't have the big men either, but they went 2-2 against Los Angeles.
Indiana could have won this game by simply eliminating mistakes. Dahntay Jones alone accounts for almost the entire point differential (-16 for him to -23 for the game).
So instead of blaming the point guard or blaming the big men, the Pacers could (1) play better defense, (2) play Jones fewer minutes or cut him, (3) make sure Danny Granger gets and/or pays attention to and/or remembers a good scouting report and (4) take better care of the basketball.
This also is the perfect example of why I support plus/minus based on individual and not five-man-unit performance when evaluating individual players.*
It is not the fault of the other Pacers on the court with Dahntay Jones that he made so many mistakes. Why should they have their ratings dragged down by his play?
And why should anyone other than Danny Granger lose two plus/minus points because he had the ball stolen from him by Ron Artest? Contrary to what the Indiana Pacers bloggers and sportswriters will tell you, it wasn't Earl Watson's fault; he was all the way on the other side of the court.
So all of you Pacers fans and others celebrating the trade for Darren Collison, you better wake up and smell the coffee. When Larry Bird says he's note done, he means it! And he better not be done, not with this team.
I picked Indiana to be one of the most improved teams this year and will stick to it. This was before they got Darren Collison. Collison helps because every good team needs two point guards, but he is no savior.
The Pacers' only hope right now is No. 10 pick Paul George. The Pacers better hope and pray he is as good as advertised, otherwise ... more Shakespearean (writer of The Comedy of Errors) theater.
Note: It is understood that these are Lakers highlights and don't tell the full story of the game. It is also fully understood that scoring games is subjective; one man's base hit is another man's error. But as the old saying goes, I call them like I see them. Finally, I tried to include only the most obvious errors and mistakes; so you may see something which I didn't include.
*Updated 2-16-2012, 8:40 AM to add the words "when evaluating individual players."
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Friday, August 6, 2010
Most Improved Teams
The life of a sports fan is a roller coaster of emotions. You go from delirious highs to gut-wrenching lows over the course of a season, a game or even a few seconds.
We love our sports, and we love our teams and our players.
They may never win a championship or even come close, but we still love them for trying.
When you really think about it, all you can ask from a team is that they do their best and try to get better every year in hopes of winning a championship.
No fan of any team in any sport should have to suffer supporting a team which never improves and remains hopelessly stuck in the land of mediocrity, or even worse, atrocity.
Looking at this off-season in the NBA, it is safe to say that everybody knows teams like the Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls got better, and the Milwaukee Bucks have received recognition for their improvement as well, although I may have been the first to give them their due.
At the same time, there are other improved teams which for one reason or another haven't received the same publicity for their key additions and other moves which will make them better next season.
Before we get started, it should be pointed out that teams which decide to play lottery-ball instead of basketball can't be accounted for.
"Lottery-ball" is the term made up here to describe teams which play to win next season's NBA Draft Lottery rather than this season's schedule of games.
It is a phenomenon in the NBA which happens almost every year, especially when there is a can't-miss, franchise player available.
Bill Simmons has written about it, and here is a Dime Magazine summary of a Chris Tomasson piece quoting John Lucas and his description of how Cleveland sabotaged their 2002-03 season to win the right to draft LeBron James, a charge former Cavaliers owner Gordon Gund denies.
This phenomenon goes all the way back to the days before the NBA Draft Lottery, and it is why the league felt it had to input the lottery to begin with, although some people will tell you it was put in place in 1985 so the NBA could put Patrick Ewing on the New York Knicks by fixing the lottery.
Injuries are another thing which can't be accounted for, so this list is put in place assuming the teams (1) will remain relatively healthy and (2) will try their best to win as many games as possible.
(1) Detroit Pistons
One way to spot a team destined to improve is to look at teams who lost a lot of minutes from their best player(s).
This causes them to lose a lot of games, many more than they would have with the player(s) available.
They then end up in the lottery and get a player they never would have gotten with a healthy team.
The best player(s) come back joined by the lottery pick and poof!
Instant improvement.
Last year, Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince, probably Detroit's best two players, both missed about half of the season.
The Pistons were able to parlay that misery into No. 7 overall pick Greg Monroe.
Hamilton and Prince returning and teaming up with high draft pick Monroe puts Detroit in prime position to improve its win total from last season.
Those injuries also allowed young players like Jonas Jerebko, Will Bynum and Austin Daye to gain valuable experience which will help the team.
Detroit has a deep team with many talented players whose skills go together. They should be much better than they were last year.
(2) Minnesota Timberwolves
The biggest reason Minnesota will be better this year is that they were so far down to begin with. With only 15 wins, there is almost no other way to go but up.
Thankfully, for the team's fans and fans of good basketball, general manager David Kahn and coach Kurt Rambis did much to improve the team after the end of last season.
The talent upgrade alone should double their win total, and they could finish around .500 or better with intangibles like team chemistry breaking their way.
In a trade with the Miami Heat, Minnesota picked up Michael Beasley. We must remind ourselves how great Michael Beasley was in his one season at Kansas State.
Here is some footage from that season.
Without Beasley having issues, there is no way Minnesota gets him as cheaply as they did or even at all. Beasley is an all-world talent who can take Minnesota wherever they want to go.
He just has to get himself together and on the right path and also learn how to pass the basketball (10.9:1 career FGA:A ratio).
Minnesota also added Wesley Johnson, Luke Ridnour, Sebastian Telfair and Martell Webster to go along with Corey Brewer, Jonny Flynn, Kevin Love, Darko Milicic and Wayne Ellington.
That is a very nice group of players.
They still need a rebounder/shot-blocker to become a real threat, but that player can be picked up next season.
For now, fans should be thrilled with the prospects of the current team.
(3) Los Angeles Clippers
No. 1 overall pick Blake Griffin missed the entire season last year. The Clippers drafted Al-Farouq Aminu No. 8 in the draft, so the Clippers will be adding two top-eight picks to their team from last season.
Griffin is another all-world talent.
The NBA has never before seen a power forward like him.
Here he is at Oklahoma, like Beasley, just incredible footage.
Another thing to look for is a team with a good backup point guard. Teams with good number-two point guards tend to do well because they allow teams to sustain their offenses for the full 48 minutes.
Like the Timberwolves with Ridnour and Telfair, the Clippers have Randy Foye. This was an excellent and underrated signing which will greatly help Los Angeles.
The Clips also have Chris Kaman and Baron Davis, two of the best players in the league at their positions. They have made significant roster upgrades and actually look like they are trying to win.
Coach Vinny Del Negro did an excellent job in Chicago last year, finishing 6-2 down the stretch to eke into the playoffs and making a great showing in the playoffs.
He did this while battling the adversity of having team executive John Paxson assault him in his office and the team suffering a 10-game losing streak when center Joakim Noah sat out with an injury.
The Clippers could make the playoffs this season.
(4) Indiana Pacers
Danny Granger missed 20 games last season, and TJ Ford missed 35. Indiana played Roy Hibbert only 25 minutes per game.
Neither of these three players played the most minutes (scroll down to "TOTALS" and click "MP") for the Pacers last year.
That honor belongs to Brandon Rush, followed by Troy Murphy and Earl Watson, not exactly the Super Friends.
That alone explains why Indiana won only 32 games. No team is going to win many games with those three players playing the most minutes.
Now that they drafted Paul George, maybe Indiana can start playing its best players again.
They have a deep and talented team and a championship core: Ford, George, Granger, Hibbert. These four players playing the most minutes will no doubt take the Pacers back to the playoffs.
The Pacers need a rebounder/shot-blocker at power forward and maybe a better backup point guard to compete for a championship, but we'll see how the team plays together and make that call later in the year.
(5) Golden State Warriors
Golden State was already covered here with their signing of Jeremy Lin.
We'll have to wait until Ekpe Udoh comes back from wrist surgery to fully evaluate them because along with Andris Biedrins, who missed 49 games last year, he gives them the ability to defend the paint, the most important thing a basketball team must do to win and a weakness of the Warriors since forever.
Look at who played the most minutes for Golden State last year.
Their only shot-blockers were Ronny Turiaf, Biedrins and Anthony Randolph; and they played in 42, 33 and 33 games.
That explains why Golden State allowed the most points in the league and had the second-worst field goal percentage defense.
Of the five players who played the most minutes, Corey Maggette was the tallest at 6-6; and Monta Ellis, at all of 6-3, led those five players with 25 blocks (.4 per game).
Nothing more needs to be said.
The Warriors will have to hold down the fort until Udoh comes back then try to make a run late in the season to make the playoffs.
Even without Udoh they should be drastically improved.
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We love our sports, and we love our teams and our players.
They may never win a championship or even come close, but we still love them for trying.
When you really think about it, all you can ask from a team is that they do their best and try to get better every year in hopes of winning a championship.
No fan of any team in any sport should have to suffer supporting a team which never improves and remains hopelessly stuck in the land of mediocrity, or even worse, atrocity.
Looking at this off-season in the NBA, it is safe to say that everybody knows teams like the Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls got better, and the Milwaukee Bucks have received recognition for their improvement as well, although I may have been the first to give them their due.
At the same time, there are other improved teams which for one reason or another haven't received the same publicity for their key additions and other moves which will make them better next season.
Before we get started, it should be pointed out that teams which decide to play lottery-ball instead of basketball can't be accounted for.
"Lottery-ball" is the term made up here to describe teams which play to win next season's NBA Draft Lottery rather than this season's schedule of games.
It is a phenomenon in the NBA which happens almost every year, especially when there is a can't-miss, franchise player available.
Bill Simmons has written about it, and here is a Dime Magazine summary of a Chris Tomasson piece quoting John Lucas and his description of how Cleveland sabotaged their 2002-03 season to win the right to draft LeBron James, a charge former Cavaliers owner Gordon Gund denies.
This phenomenon goes all the way back to the days before the NBA Draft Lottery, and it is why the league felt it had to input the lottery to begin with, although some people will tell you it was put in place in 1985 so the NBA could put Patrick Ewing on the New York Knicks by fixing the lottery.
Injuries are another thing which can't be accounted for, so this list is put in place assuming the teams (1) will remain relatively healthy and (2) will try their best to win as many games as possible.
(1) Detroit Pistons
One way to spot a team destined to improve is to look at teams who lost a lot of minutes from their best player(s).
This causes them to lose a lot of games, many more than they would have with the player(s) available.
They then end up in the lottery and get a player they never would have gotten with a healthy team.
The best player(s) come back joined by the lottery pick and poof!
Instant improvement.
Last year, Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince, probably Detroit's best two players, both missed about half of the season.
The Pistons were able to parlay that misery into No. 7 overall pick Greg Monroe.
Hamilton and Prince returning and teaming up with high draft pick Monroe puts Detroit in prime position to improve its win total from last season.
Those injuries also allowed young players like Jonas Jerebko, Will Bynum and Austin Daye to gain valuable experience which will help the team.
Detroit has a deep team with many talented players whose skills go together. They should be much better than they were last year.
(2) Minnesota Timberwolves
The biggest reason Minnesota will be better this year is that they were so far down to begin with. With only 15 wins, there is almost no other way to go but up.
Thankfully, for the team's fans and fans of good basketball, general manager David Kahn and coach Kurt Rambis did much to improve the team after the end of last season.
The talent upgrade alone should double their win total, and they could finish around .500 or better with intangibles like team chemistry breaking their way.
In a trade with the Miami Heat, Minnesota picked up Michael Beasley. We must remind ourselves how great Michael Beasley was in his one season at Kansas State.
Here is some footage from that season.
Without Beasley having issues, there is no way Minnesota gets him as cheaply as they did or even at all. Beasley is an all-world talent who can take Minnesota wherever they want to go.
He just has to get himself together and on the right path and also learn how to pass the basketball (10.9:1 career FGA:A ratio).
Minnesota also added Wesley Johnson, Luke Ridnour, Sebastian Telfair and Martell Webster to go along with Corey Brewer, Jonny Flynn, Kevin Love, Darko Milicic and Wayne Ellington.
That is a very nice group of players.
They still need a rebounder/shot-blocker to become a real threat, but that player can be picked up next season.
For now, fans should be thrilled with the prospects of the current team.
(3) Los Angeles Clippers
No. 1 overall pick Blake Griffin missed the entire season last year. The Clippers drafted Al-Farouq Aminu No. 8 in the draft, so the Clippers will be adding two top-eight picks to their team from last season.
Griffin is another all-world talent.
The NBA has never before seen a power forward like him.
Here he is at Oklahoma, like Beasley, just incredible footage.
Another thing to look for is a team with a good backup point guard. Teams with good number-two point guards tend to do well because they allow teams to sustain their offenses for the full 48 minutes.
Like the Timberwolves with Ridnour and Telfair, the Clippers have Randy Foye. This was an excellent and underrated signing which will greatly help Los Angeles.
The Clips also have Chris Kaman and Baron Davis, two of the best players in the league at their positions. They have made significant roster upgrades and actually look like they are trying to win.
Coach Vinny Del Negro did an excellent job in Chicago last year, finishing 6-2 down the stretch to eke into the playoffs and making a great showing in the playoffs.
He did this while battling the adversity of having team executive John Paxson assault him in his office and the team suffering a 10-game losing streak when center Joakim Noah sat out with an injury.
The Clippers could make the playoffs this season.
(4) Indiana Pacers
Danny Granger missed 20 games last season, and TJ Ford missed 35. Indiana played Roy Hibbert only 25 minutes per game.
Neither of these three players played the most minutes (scroll down to "TOTALS" and click "MP") for the Pacers last year.
That honor belongs to Brandon Rush, followed by Troy Murphy and Earl Watson, not exactly the Super Friends.
That alone explains why Indiana won only 32 games. No team is going to win many games with those three players playing the most minutes.
Now that they drafted Paul George, maybe Indiana can start playing its best players again.
They have a deep and talented team and a championship core: Ford, George, Granger, Hibbert. These four players playing the most minutes will no doubt take the Pacers back to the playoffs.
The Pacers need a rebounder/shot-blocker at power forward and maybe a better backup point guard to compete for a championship, but we'll see how the team plays together and make that call later in the year.
(5) Golden State Warriors
Golden State was already covered here with their signing of Jeremy Lin.
We'll have to wait until Ekpe Udoh comes back from wrist surgery to fully evaluate them because along with Andris Biedrins, who missed 49 games last year, he gives them the ability to defend the paint, the most important thing a basketball team must do to win and a weakness of the Warriors since forever.
Look at who played the most minutes for Golden State last year.
Their only shot-blockers were Ronny Turiaf, Biedrins and Anthony Randolph; and they played in 42, 33 and 33 games.
That explains why Golden State allowed the most points in the league and had the second-worst field goal percentage defense.
Of the five players who played the most minutes, Corey Maggette was the tallest at 6-6; and Monta Ellis, at all of 6-3, led those five players with 25 blocks (.4 per game).
Nothing more needs to be said.
The Warriors will have to hold down the fort until Udoh comes back then try to make a run late in the season to make the playoffs.
Even without Udoh they should be drastically improved.
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Sunday, July 25, 2010
Golden State Signs Warrior Jeremy Lin
The troubled franchise known as the Golden State Warriors may finally be headed in the right direction. With one playoff appearance in the past 16 seasons, things look to be turning around.
The Warriors signed free agent point guard Jeremy Lin this week.
Not to go all Bill Walton here, but this might be the greatest transaction in the history of the franchise because the Warriors literally stole a lottery pick off of another team's summer league roster.
Jeremy Lin should have been the second point guard taken in the 2010 NBA Draft, maybe the first.
He went toe-to-toe with No. 1 overall pick John Wall in summer league in Las Vegas and at the very least held his own. Lin is a better defender and has a much higher basketball IQ than Wall does at this point.
I never heard of Jeremy Lin before summer league, but looking at his incredible highlights and statistics from Harvard, there is no way he should have fallen past pick number 20, much less gone undrafted.
And pick number 20 is being conservative.
Here is video from the fourth quarter of Lin's game against John Wall, and this is video of Lin against Sacramento.
Two plays should be pointed out here: In the college highlights Lin steals a pass from and scores over Georgetown center Greg Monroe (2:37); and in the Sacramento highlights Lin gets a steal and scores over Kings big man DeMarcus Cousins (1:59).
Cousins and Monroe were the 5th and 7th picks in the draft.
Jeremy Lin also stole the ball from and scored over No. 15 pick Larry Sanders of the Milwaukee Bucks (:26), who averaged 3.2 blocks per game in summer league. He later takes the ball away from Sanders again (1:22).
In short, Lin makes play after play on four of the top 15 picks in the draft and three of the top seven.
There is no doubt that Jeremy Lin is NBA-ready.
He has everything a team should look for in a basketball player, and with Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis, he gives the Warriors one of the best guard rotations in the NBA.
To play with franchise players Curry and Ellis, the Warriors acquired power forward David Lee from the New York Knicks and signed free-agent small forward Dorell Wright from the Miami Heat.
Wright had some big moments for the Heat in the playoffs last year against the Celtics, particularly in Game 3.
Signing Wright might not be the same as Orlando plucking Tracy McGrady from the Toronto Raptors, but it could come close. And David Lee is one of the most underrated players in the league.
Golden State looks to be headed in the right direction and might make the playoffs this season.
This is video of a news story about Lin by a local TV station and his interview for the team website.
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The Warriors signed free agent point guard Jeremy Lin this week.
Not to go all Bill Walton here, but this might be the greatest transaction in the history of the franchise because the Warriors literally stole a lottery pick off of another team's summer league roster.
Jeremy Lin should have been the second point guard taken in the 2010 NBA Draft, maybe the first.
He went toe-to-toe with No. 1 overall pick John Wall in summer league in Las Vegas and at the very least held his own. Lin is a better defender and has a much higher basketball IQ than Wall does at this point.
I never heard of Jeremy Lin before summer league, but looking at his incredible highlights and statistics from Harvard, there is no way he should have fallen past pick number 20, much less gone undrafted.
And pick number 20 is being conservative.
Here is video from the fourth quarter of Lin's game against John Wall, and this is video of Lin against Sacramento.
Two plays should be pointed out here: In the college highlights Lin steals a pass from and scores over Georgetown center Greg Monroe (2:37); and in the Sacramento highlights Lin gets a steal and scores over Kings big man DeMarcus Cousins (1:59).
Cousins and Monroe were the 5th and 7th picks in the draft.
Jeremy Lin also stole the ball from and scored over No. 15 pick Larry Sanders of the Milwaukee Bucks (:26), who averaged 3.2 blocks per game in summer league. He later takes the ball away from Sanders again (1:22).
In short, Lin makes play after play on four of the top 15 picks in the draft and three of the top seven.
There is no doubt that Jeremy Lin is NBA-ready.
He has everything a team should look for in a basketball player, and with Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis, he gives the Warriors one of the best guard rotations in the NBA.
To play with franchise players Curry and Ellis, the Warriors acquired power forward David Lee from the New York Knicks and signed free-agent small forward Dorell Wright from the Miami Heat.
Wright had some big moments for the Heat in the playoffs last year against the Celtics, particularly in Game 3.
Signing Wright might not be the same as Orlando plucking Tracy McGrady from the Toronto Raptors, but it could come close. And David Lee is one of the most underrated players in the league.
Golden State looks to be headed in the right direction and might make the playoffs this season.
This is video of a news story about Lin by a local TV station and his interview for the team website.
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