Why The Draft Often Seems Like A Crapshoot
Whenever a basketball player turns out to be better or worse than expected, people immediately credit or blame the team's general manager.
It is rarely that simple.
The general manager, or other person with the same duties using a different title, of a basketball team isn't solely responsible for the decision to select a given player.
They receive input from their scouting departments and their coaching staffs to help make the best choice possible.
Without knowing the inner workings of each individual team, it is impossible to know exactly who had the most influence or who should receive the credit or blame for a particular draft pick.
So firing the general manager probably won't fix the drafting problem for a team whose scouts and coaches were the ones who gave him the bad advice which he followed.
And the decision to draft someone is only the first step of what will be a long process in determining the player's future.
While players like Michael Jordan, Allen Iverson and Tim Duncan come in and set the league on fire from day one, most draft picks take time.
They have to be developed and taught the skills they need to succeed in the NBA.
And not all picks will be great in every situation.
Even some great players need the right system, the right coaching staff and the right teammates to reach their ultimate potential.
In determining the who and what of a player's career, there are many things to consider other than the general manager and his ability to evaluate talent.
THE COACHING STAFF
NBA coaching staffs have directors of player development and other assistant coaches who work with players to develop their games.
Tracy McGrady credits Johnny Davis with helping him become one of the game's finest players when the two were together in Orlando, Davis as an assistant coach under Doc Rivers.
And it was Keith Askins who worked with Dorell Wright in Miami (3:27).
Assistant coaches work with players on a daily basis, practicing, sharing knowledge and giving insight into the game.
They are a huge part of draft-day success.
Getting the most out of a selection could be a matter of bringing in the right assistant coach to work with him and sharpen his skills and get him ready for battle in the NBA.
THE COACH
The coach gives a player confidence by showing he believes in him, puts in the right system for him based on what he does best and gives him the right role within that system to maximize his ability.
This is an extreme example, but what if Pat Riley had tried to use Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as the point man on his fast break for the Showtime Lakers?
Needless to say, it wouldn't have worked. But you see teams do this all the time in much less-extreme cases.
Gary Payton is the best example of a great player who needed a coaching change to become the best he could be.
As the No. 2 pick in the 1990 draft, Payton struggled during his first two years in the league.
Then Seattle hired George Karl.
Under George Karl, Gary Payton became one of the greatest players in NBA history.
Payton describes what happened in his own words in this interview (:45).
THE VETERANS
The veterans on a team play a huge role in the success of a draft pick.
Charles Barkley often talks about how Moses Malone helped him early in his career in Philadelphia.
But not all veterans are as helpful as Malone was with Barkley.
Some may see the rookie as competition and not want to help at all, and others may try to help but may not have the insight to be very useful.
A team's veterans also show the draft pick what the league is all about.
And selfish teammates who don't work hard, party after losses and only talk about getting paid could definitely lead a young player in the wrong direction.
On top of that, for whatever reason some teammates just don't play well together, no matter how talented they are.
Trades may be required to bring in others who will play better with a young star to get him to reach his potential.
THE INNER DRIVE
The determination to be great is the one thing which will carry a draft pick further than anything else.
But whether or not he will sustain that drive over the course of a long career is anybody's guess.
You can interview his parents and his high school and college coaches and do any amount of research you desire, but this will never be more than an educated guess.
Players with skills who work hard would seem to be the ones most likely to succeed in the NBA, and this may be where teams make the biggest mistakes, picking players who either have skills or work hard but not both.
And never underestimate basketball IQ.
Gilbert Arenas is one of the greatest examples ever of someone whose drive to be great (:45 and 4:25) carried him further than his status as a second-round pick.
Whenever you see a player performing at a high level, you can almost guarantee that he got there with an unmatched desire and will to be the best.
THE WILD CARD
It has been mentioned many times before that the biggest wild card in all of this is what a person is going to do after he receives a check for $1 million.
Will he continue to be the first one to practice and the last one to leave? Or will he start making it rain on strippers at naked dance clubs?
It is a cliche in all of sports that players will play their best during the years that their contracts are set to expire and make them free agents.
This is yet another gigantic factor in a draft pick's success and another which is completely out of the hands of the general manager.
This too can only ever be an educated guess at best.
And all things considered, it makes you understand how difficult this entire drafting process can be.
Science can never be inexact. That is why it is called science.
In looking at the effort to have draft picks reach their maximum potential, it simply appears that not enough variables are being considered.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Saturday, January 1, 2011
Saturday, December 18, 2010
NBA Advanced Defensive Statistics
I've been working on some new defensive statistics which I need to introduce to the public.
Some of this builds on work developed by Dean Oliver. The rest I came up with on my own.
One of my biggest problems with statistics in general is that they are extremely biased in favor of offense. And advanced basketball statistics are no different.
I've been on a mission to create a statistic for everything a basketball player does to help his team win, or lose, and credit it accurately to improve player and team evaluation.
And these defensive statistics are another step in that direction.
I must again tell you that this article is about to get really nerdy right now, talking about the minute details of various basketball scenarios, so consider yourself warned.
INDIVIDUAL STATS
The first defensive concept is the stall.
A stall is mainly when an offensive player tries to score on a defensive player, but the defensive player prevents the scoring attempt, usually forcing the offensive player to pass the basketball.
It is a stall and not a stop because there was no shot attempt; the defender didn't prevent a score; he only delayed a scoring opportunity due to the possession being still alive with the ball in the hands of the offense.
Like almost everything else, some of these will be judgment calls; but you can usually tell when an offensive player is trying to score.
I'll stick with Oliver's language on this next one and go with forced miss.
A forced miss is when a defensive player forces an offensive player to miss a shot. He can do this by either contesting the shot or by blocking the path of the offensive player and forcing him shoot farther away from the basket than he could have without the path block.
Forced misses which are not contested and don't involve a path block will be credited to the team.
A forced miss plus a rebound equals a stop.
When the same player who forced the miss gets the rebound, he will be credited with a full stop.
A stop can also be defined more broadly as anything a defensive player or team does to create a change of possession without any points being scored by the offense.
So drawing charges, getting steals, forcing shot-clock violations and a wide variety of other things will be counted as stops as well.
And as Dean Oliver pointed out, fouling a player who goes to the line and misses both free throws will be counted as a stop, assuming the defense secures the rebound after the second free-throw miss.
½ Stops. When one player forces a miss and a different player gets the rebound, the stop will be divided into two equal halves, the forced miss half and the rebound half.
And each player will be given ½ stop.
¼ Stops. When two players force a miss or two players combine for a rebound, the ½ stop for the forced miss or rebound will be split in half and each player given ¼ stop.
Let's say two defensive players double-team a player in the post and force him to miss a shot, and a third defensive player gets the rebound.
The forced-miss half of the stop will be divided in two, and the two players will be given ¼ stop each for forcing the miss.
Since only one player got the rebound, he will be credited with his regular ½ stop.
¼ stops for the rebound half are for plays when one defensive player deflects the rebound, and a second recovers it.
Let's get really complicated and look at one more scenario.
A player dribbles the ball across half court and is immediately double-teamed.
The ball pressure from the trap forces him into a bad pass which is deflected by a third defender and recovered by a fourth for a steal.
This stop would be split into two equal halves, the ball-pressure half and the steal half.
The two trapping players would be given ¼ stop each for the ball-pressure half, and the players who got the steal would be given ¼ stop each for their combined play on the steal half.
Because these fractions can get out of hand, whenever more than two players combine for ½ of a stop, it will be credited to the team.
TEAM STATS
Now let's move over and look at some team defensive statistics.
The best way to stop a team from scoring is to not let them shoot the basketball.
You can't score without shooting, right?
So one of the things which will be tracked is the percentage of no-shot stops a defensive team gets, meaning they did something to change possession and get the ball back from the offense before the offense had the opportunity to attempt a field goal.
For a team which can't get a no-shot stop, a one-shot stop is the next best thing. That obviously means that the offense came down and missed one shot, and the defense got the rebound and ended the possession.
And the percentage of times a defense does that will be logged as well.
No-shot stops may be called "none-and-dones" and one-shot stops "one-and-dones."
Another thing is that not all stops are created equally.
Live-ball stops are the best because they give the team the opportunity to get fast-break points. So teams will be measured on their field goal percentages after live-ball stops, dead-ball stops and after made baskets for comparison.
These statistics can also be used for offense.
One of the biggest problems for Golden State is that they have too many no-shot possessions on offense. It absolutely killed them in road games at the Lakers and at Oklahoma City this year.
Finally, I'll be looking at dunks and layups.
I'm sure we can all agree that the two easiest shots to make in basketball are an uncontested dunk and an uncontested layup.
Field goals allowed will be looked at to see what percentage were uncontested dunks and layups and what impact this had on the field goal percentage allowed by the defense.
As I wrote before, I don't have nearly the resources or the manpower to track this information on a large scale but will do some games from time to time.
UPDATE: 1/31/2011
Here are some other situations where a player will be credited with a stall: (1) when he deflects a ball out of bounds, (2) when he deflects a ball which gets recovered by the offense, (3) when the offense is trying to pass to his man but his ball denial doesn't allow the pass attempt, (4) when his ball pressure on the passer forces the offense away from who it was trying to pass the ball to, (5) when he forces a jump ball and the offense maintains possession, (6*) when he bumps or blocks off an offensive player moving without the ball and disrupts the play, (7*) when he blocks the path of a dribbler not attempting to score and disrupts the play.
*UPDATE: 5/26/2011, 5:00 AM
It should also be noted that stalls can and will be divided into ½ stalls and ¼ stalls just like stops, and when more than two players combine for ½ of a stall it will be credited to the team.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Some of this builds on work developed by Dean Oliver. The rest I came up with on my own.
One of my biggest problems with statistics in general is that they are extremely biased in favor of offense. And advanced basketball statistics are no different.
I've been on a mission to create a statistic for everything a basketball player does to help his team win, or lose, and credit it accurately to improve player and team evaluation.
And these defensive statistics are another step in that direction.
I must again tell you that this article is about to get really nerdy right now, talking about the minute details of various basketball scenarios, so consider yourself warned.
INDIVIDUAL STATS
The first defensive concept is the stall.
A stall is mainly when an offensive player tries to score on a defensive player, but the defensive player prevents the scoring attempt, usually forcing the offensive player to pass the basketball.
It is a stall and not a stop because there was no shot attempt; the defender didn't prevent a score; he only delayed a scoring opportunity due to the possession being still alive with the ball in the hands of the offense.
Like almost everything else, some of these will be judgment calls; but you can usually tell when an offensive player is trying to score.
I'll stick with Oliver's language on this next one and go with forced miss.
A forced miss is when a defensive player forces an offensive player to miss a shot. He can do this by either contesting the shot or by blocking the path of the offensive player and forcing him shoot farther away from the basket than he could have without the path block.
Forced misses which are not contested and don't involve a path block will be credited to the team.
A forced miss plus a rebound equals a stop.
When the same player who forced the miss gets the rebound, he will be credited with a full stop.
A stop can also be defined more broadly as anything a defensive player or team does to create a change of possession without any points being scored by the offense.
So drawing charges, getting steals, forcing shot-clock violations and a wide variety of other things will be counted as stops as well.
And as Dean Oliver pointed out, fouling a player who goes to the line and misses both free throws will be counted as a stop, assuming the defense secures the rebound after the second free-throw miss.
½ Stops. When one player forces a miss and a different player gets the rebound, the stop will be divided into two equal halves, the forced miss half and the rebound half.
And each player will be given ½ stop.
¼ Stops. When two players force a miss or two players combine for a rebound, the ½ stop for the forced miss or rebound will be split in half and each player given ¼ stop.
Let's say two defensive players double-team a player in the post and force him to miss a shot, and a third defensive player gets the rebound.
The forced-miss half of the stop will be divided in two, and the two players will be given ¼ stop each for forcing the miss.
Since only one player got the rebound, he will be credited with his regular ½ stop.
¼ stops for the rebound half are for plays when one defensive player deflects the rebound, and a second recovers it.
Let's get really complicated and look at one more scenario.
A player dribbles the ball across half court and is immediately double-teamed.
The ball pressure from the trap forces him into a bad pass which is deflected by a third defender and recovered by a fourth for a steal.
This stop would be split into two equal halves, the ball-pressure half and the steal half.
The two trapping players would be given ¼ stop each for the ball-pressure half, and the players who got the steal would be given ¼ stop each for their combined play on the steal half.
Because these fractions can get out of hand, whenever more than two players combine for ½ of a stop, it will be credited to the team.
TEAM STATS
Now let's move over and look at some team defensive statistics.
The best way to stop a team from scoring is to not let them shoot the basketball.
You can't score without shooting, right?
So one of the things which will be tracked is the percentage of no-shot stops a defensive team gets, meaning they did something to change possession and get the ball back from the offense before the offense had the opportunity to attempt a field goal.
For a team which can't get a no-shot stop, a one-shot stop is the next best thing. That obviously means that the offense came down and missed one shot, and the defense got the rebound and ended the possession.
And the percentage of times a defense does that will be logged as well.
No-shot stops may be called "none-and-dones" and one-shot stops "one-and-dones."
Another thing is that not all stops are created equally.
Live-ball stops are the best because they give the team the opportunity to get fast-break points. So teams will be measured on their field goal percentages after live-ball stops, dead-ball stops and after made baskets for comparison.
These statistics can also be used for offense.
One of the biggest problems for Golden State is that they have too many no-shot possessions on offense. It absolutely killed them in road games at the Lakers and at Oklahoma City this year.
Finally, I'll be looking at dunks and layups.
I'm sure we can all agree that the two easiest shots to make in basketball are an uncontested dunk and an uncontested layup.
Field goals allowed will be looked at to see what percentage were uncontested dunks and layups and what impact this had on the field goal percentage allowed by the defense.
As I wrote before, I don't have nearly the resources or the manpower to track this information on a large scale but will do some games from time to time.
UPDATE: 1/31/2011
Here are some other situations where a player will be credited with a stall: (1) when he deflects a ball out of bounds, (2) when he deflects a ball which gets recovered by the offense, (3) when the offense is trying to pass to his man but his ball denial doesn't allow the pass attempt, (4) when his ball pressure on the passer forces the offense away from who it was trying to pass the ball to, (5) when he forces a jump ball and the offense maintains possession, (6*) when he bumps or blocks off an offensive player moving without the ball and disrupts the play, (7*) when he blocks the path of a dribbler not attempting to score and disrupts the play.
*UPDATE: 5/26/2011, 5:00 AM
It should also be noted that stalls can and will be divided into ½ stalls and ¼ stalls just like stops, and when more than two players combine for ½ of a stall it will be credited to the team.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Saturday, December 11, 2010
The Cavalry
Imagine starting out on a long and challenging journey and realizing shortly after you left that you weren't going to make it.
You've gone too far to turn back but not nearly far enough to reach your destination. You're running out of food and supplies and know that the end is near.
It is just a matter of time.
As you lie there waiting for the end to arrive and wondering how you got yourself into this awful situation, you hear something in the distance.
Weak and barely alive, you look up just long enough to see men on horseback coming to your rescue. They arrive and give you the food, supplies and the manpower you need to survive trip.
It would be quite a relief.
Although all of the teams which have suffered through injuries this season aren't in a situation as desperate as this, some are.
And fortunately, the cavalry has either arrived or is on the way.
CARLOS BOOZER
Carlos Boozer missed the first month of the season with a broken hand.
Chicago suffered two blowout losses to Orlando and Boston as he worked himself into the lineup but has won four in a row since, with impressive wins over Oklahoma City and the Lakers.
Chicago should only get better as Boozer, Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose play more games together.
They currently sit at fourth place in the East.
ANDREW BYNUM
Los Angeles started the season strongly, but slowly, the absence of Andrew Bynum is starting to catch up to them.
Bynum practiced fully this week for the first time and appears to be on track to return next week.
It doesn't take many words to describe the impact his return will have on the team. We've all been watching Los Angeles during championship runs over the past three seasons and know how important he is to the team.
MARIO CHALMERS
Miami has been on a roll since Mario Chalmers (ankle) made his way back into the rotation.
He still looks to be limping at times, but his impact cannot be denied.
Miami's offense has a much better flow to it thanks to his contagious passing, which makes the team highly-entertaining now and fun to watch.
82games.com has one of the greatest advanced statistics of all time. It breaks down turnovers by type and focuses in on what it calls the "Assist/Bad Pass" ratio.
This helps identify the most accurate passers by eliminating all other turnovers from consideration and only looking at the turnovers a player makes while passing the basketball.
As of the time of this post, Chalmers averages 10 assists for every passing turnover he makes.
Compare that to Chris Paul (7.7), Deron Williams (6) and Steve Nash (5.1).
BARON DAVIS AND CHRIS KAMAN
This is a team which simply can't catch a break.
After waiting nearly a month for Baron Davis and Chris Kaman to return and racking up the worst record in the association in the process, both players returned in early December.
And what happened?
It turns out Kaman's ankle wasn't quite ready yet, and Davis started struggling with a hamstring problem, a different injury than the knee which kept him out for so long.
Davis has continued to play, but Kaman will be out for at least three more weeks.
The cavalry may not arrive in time to save the Clippers this season.
JONNY FLYNN AND MARTELL WEBSTER
The only team which has suffered more with injuries than the Clippers is the Minnesota Timberwolves.
It got so bad for them that at one point they were down five players (Jonny Flynn, Luke Ridnour, Martell Webster, Nikola Pekovic, Wayne Ellington) in a game at Charlotte, a game which they almost won.
Flynn (hip) and Webster have both been cleared to play their first games this season, and Pekovic returned last week to solidify the big man rotation.
Flynn has been rehabbing by playing a few games in the development league while Kurt Rambis is waiting to get Webster some good practice time before putting him back in the lineup.
Flynn and Webster are both major, impact players for Minnesota.
Webster had an outstanding preseason and had Minnesota looking like one of the most improved teams in the league before he had to have back surgery and miss the start of the season.
And Jonny Flynn is one of the most gifted, young point guards in the NBA.
David Kahn may not have made the right decision in drafting him ahead of Stephen Curry and Brandon Jennings, but he certainly didn't make the wrong one either.
Minnesota looks to be on their way back.
EKPE UDOH AND DAVID LEE
Golden State has lost six games in a row, but all were against playoff teams from last year and some of the best teams in the NBA so far this season.
The team had gotten so razor thin up front that Vladimir Radmanovic started a few games at power forward.
David Lee returned from his elbow injury seven games ago, and Ekpe Udoh made his season debut last night against Miami. Louis Amundson returned recently as well to help shore up the depth at power forward.
Acie Law was a nice addition and will help fill the void while Stephen Curry recovers from his ankle injury and help when Curry comes back.
The schedule starts to lighten up a bit, and Golden State could finish the season in a good way assuming they can remain healthy and assuming Keith Smart utilizes all of the talent he has on this roster.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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You've gone too far to turn back but not nearly far enough to reach your destination. You're running out of food and supplies and know that the end is near.
It is just a matter of time.
As you lie there waiting for the end to arrive and wondering how you got yourself into this awful situation, you hear something in the distance.
Weak and barely alive, you look up just long enough to see men on horseback coming to your rescue. They arrive and give you the food, supplies and the manpower you need to survive trip.
It would be quite a relief.
Although all of the teams which have suffered through injuries this season aren't in a situation as desperate as this, some are.
And fortunately, the cavalry has either arrived or is on the way.
CARLOS BOOZER
Carlos Boozer missed the first month of the season with a broken hand.
Chicago suffered two blowout losses to Orlando and Boston as he worked himself into the lineup but has won four in a row since, with impressive wins over Oklahoma City and the Lakers.
Chicago should only get better as Boozer, Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose play more games together.
They currently sit at fourth place in the East.
ANDREW BYNUM
Los Angeles started the season strongly, but slowly, the absence of Andrew Bynum is starting to catch up to them.
Bynum practiced fully this week for the first time and appears to be on track to return next week.
It doesn't take many words to describe the impact his return will have on the team. We've all been watching Los Angeles during championship runs over the past three seasons and know how important he is to the team.
MARIO CHALMERS
Miami has been on a roll since Mario Chalmers (ankle) made his way back into the rotation.
He still looks to be limping at times, but his impact cannot be denied.
Miami's offense has a much better flow to it thanks to his contagious passing, which makes the team highly-entertaining now and fun to watch.
82games.com has one of the greatest advanced statistics of all time. It breaks down turnovers by type and focuses in on what it calls the "Assist/Bad Pass" ratio.
This helps identify the most accurate passers by eliminating all other turnovers from consideration and only looking at the turnovers a player makes while passing the basketball.
As of the time of this post, Chalmers averages 10 assists for every passing turnover he makes.
Compare that to Chris Paul (7.7), Deron Williams (6) and Steve Nash (5.1).
BARON DAVIS AND CHRIS KAMAN
This is a team which simply can't catch a break.
After waiting nearly a month for Baron Davis and Chris Kaman to return and racking up the worst record in the association in the process, both players returned in early December.
And what happened?
It turns out Kaman's ankle wasn't quite ready yet, and Davis started struggling with a hamstring problem, a different injury than the knee which kept him out for so long.
Davis has continued to play, but Kaman will be out for at least three more weeks.
The cavalry may not arrive in time to save the Clippers this season.
JONNY FLYNN AND MARTELL WEBSTER
The only team which has suffered more with injuries than the Clippers is the Minnesota Timberwolves.
It got so bad for them that at one point they were down five players (Jonny Flynn, Luke Ridnour, Martell Webster, Nikola Pekovic, Wayne Ellington) in a game at Charlotte, a game which they almost won.
Flynn (hip) and Webster have both been cleared to play their first games this season, and Pekovic returned last week to solidify the big man rotation.
Flynn has been rehabbing by playing a few games in the development league while Kurt Rambis is waiting to get Webster some good practice time before putting him back in the lineup.
Flynn and Webster are both major, impact players for Minnesota.
Webster had an outstanding preseason and had Minnesota looking like one of the most improved teams in the league before he had to have back surgery and miss the start of the season.
And Jonny Flynn is one of the most gifted, young point guards in the NBA.
David Kahn may not have made the right decision in drafting him ahead of Stephen Curry and Brandon Jennings, but he certainly didn't make the wrong one either.
Minnesota looks to be on their way back.
EKPE UDOH AND DAVID LEE
Golden State has lost six games in a row, but all were against playoff teams from last year and some of the best teams in the NBA so far this season.
The team had gotten so razor thin up front that Vladimir Radmanovic started a few games at power forward.
David Lee returned from his elbow injury seven games ago, and Ekpe Udoh made his season debut last night against Miami. Louis Amundson returned recently as well to help shore up the depth at power forward.
Acie Law was a nice addition and will help fill the void while Stephen Curry recovers from his ankle injury and help when Curry comes back.
The schedule starts to lighten up a bit, and Golden State could finish the season in a good way assuming they can remain healthy and assuming Keith Smart utilizes all of the talent he has on this roster.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Saturday, December 4, 2010
Around The Association
This was LeBron Week, so I guess it's time to chime in and say something about the Miami Heat.
The media have swooped down on Miami like vultures on a fresh carcass and done everything from fire the coach to trade one of the team's key players.
It has become really cool all of a sudden, like wearing a leather jacket and smoking cigarettes in the '70s, to say something bad about LeBron James or the Miami Heat.
DON'T SPEAK TOO SOON
Part of this hysteria is really nothing but overreaction.
Dan Patrick had the greatest observation of this phenomenon. He often talks about how football fans and reporters overreact and think they are going to the Super Bowl or think the season is over after their team wins or loses the first game or two of the season.
It is unfair to judge Miami at this point due to the number of players who have not been available.
Mario Chalmers battled an ankle injury and didn't play 20 minutes in any game until November 27 and has done so only four times so far this season.
Miami is 3-1 in those games.
I saw Chalmers play for about five minutes in the second half against Washington, his second game playing at least 20 minutes. There was more ball movement for Miami in those five minutes than there had been all season combined without Chalmers on the floor.
The Heat also obviously misses Mike Miller.
My only criticism of Erik Spoelstra is the limited playing time he has given Joel Anthony. For what it's worth, Miami is 7-1 when Anthony plays at least 20 minutes.
It probably has something to do with the fact that he leads the team with 1.2 blocks per game despite averaging only 18 minutes.
To those shoveling dirt on Miami's grave, you may want to tone down the rhetoric, unless you want to look really stupid in a few weeks.
BEATING A DEAD HORSE
The impact that injuries are having on this season can't be emphasized enough.
Golden State is the latest team to be bitten by the injury bug.
Golden State started the season as one of the best teams in the league at 6-2. Then David Lee injured his elbow and missed eight games.
The Warriors lost one of Lee's backups (Brandan Wright) to a back injury two games after Lee went out. They were already playing without top pick Ekpe Udoh, who hasn't played all season due to a wrist injury.
The result has been an incredibly thin front line which has seen the team limp to a 2-9 record in its last 11 games (1-7 without Lee).
It got so bad that Keith Smart had to resort to starting Vladimir Radmanovic at power forward for a few games before he ditched the idea and went back to Dan Gadzuric.
Neither idea worked, and the team is now struggling to find itself.
THE DEFINITION OF CLUTCH
There has been a change in how clutch will be defined when games are analyzed.
Clutch will now be defined as the last two minutes of the game or overtime when no team is ahead by more than three points.
It was changed from the last five minutes because the five-minute mark just doesn't feel big enough or important enough when watching close games and because it is much easier to track the last two minutes of a game as compared to the last five minutes.
Players who make shots during this time will be judged based on whether their team is behind, tied or leading with the following priority:
(1.) Trailing
(2.) Tied
(3.) Leading
Priority will also be given based on the time the shot takes place, with the following order of importance:
(1.) 0-10 seconds
(2.) 10.1-24 seconds
(3.) 24.1-30 seconds
(4.) 30.1-1:00 minute
(5.) 1:01-1:30 seconds
(6.) 1:31-2:00 minutes
So a player who hits a go-ahead shot with two minutes left won't be considered as clutch as a player who hits one with 10 seconds remaining.
Game-winners will be defined as shots with 10 seconds or less in the fourth quarter or overtime which give a team the lead for good. This matches how Elias Sports Bureau defines and tracks game-winners.
Game-winning shots will be prioritized in the following order:
(1.) Lead-changing game-winners
(2.) Game-winners
(3.) Game-clinchers
Game-clinchers or icers or daggers aren't really game-winners because they come when the team is already ahead. But something had to be created for players who put games away like this.
Lead-changing game-winners are defined as the most clutch due to the player having so much on the line.
For a player who misses a shot with the score tied, the worst which can happen is that the game goes into overtime.
But a player who misses a shot when his team is behind loses the game. He then has to answer all of the questions about what happened and live for a minimum of 24 hours with the fact that he let his team down.
It is such a pressurized situation that players who step up to the challenge deserve more credit when they pull it off.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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The media have swooped down on Miami like vultures on a fresh carcass and done everything from fire the coach to trade one of the team's key players.
It has become really cool all of a sudden, like wearing a leather jacket and smoking cigarettes in the '70s, to say something bad about LeBron James or the Miami Heat.
DON'T SPEAK TOO SOON
Part of this hysteria is really nothing but overreaction.
Dan Patrick had the greatest observation of this phenomenon. He often talks about how football fans and reporters overreact and think they are going to the Super Bowl or think the season is over after their team wins or loses the first game or two of the season.
It is unfair to judge Miami at this point due to the number of players who have not been available.
Mario Chalmers battled an ankle injury and didn't play 20 minutes in any game until November 27 and has done so only four times so far this season.
Miami is 3-1 in those games.
I saw Chalmers play for about five minutes in the second half against Washington, his second game playing at least 20 minutes. There was more ball movement for Miami in those five minutes than there had been all season combined without Chalmers on the floor.
The Heat also obviously misses Mike Miller.
My only criticism of Erik Spoelstra is the limited playing time he has given Joel Anthony. For what it's worth, Miami is 7-1 when Anthony plays at least 20 minutes.
It probably has something to do with the fact that he leads the team with 1.2 blocks per game despite averaging only 18 minutes.
To those shoveling dirt on Miami's grave, you may want to tone down the rhetoric, unless you want to look really stupid in a few weeks.
BEATING A DEAD HORSE
The impact that injuries are having on this season can't be emphasized enough.
Golden State is the latest team to be bitten by the injury bug.
Golden State started the season as one of the best teams in the league at 6-2. Then David Lee injured his elbow and missed eight games.
The Warriors lost one of Lee's backups (Brandan Wright) to a back injury two games after Lee went out. They were already playing without top pick Ekpe Udoh, who hasn't played all season due to a wrist injury.
The result has been an incredibly thin front line which has seen the team limp to a 2-9 record in its last 11 games (1-7 without Lee).
It got so bad that Keith Smart had to resort to starting Vladimir Radmanovic at power forward for a few games before he ditched the idea and went back to Dan Gadzuric.
Neither idea worked, and the team is now struggling to find itself.
THE DEFINITION OF CLUTCH
There has been a change in how clutch will be defined when games are analyzed.
Clutch will now be defined as the last two minutes of the game or overtime when no team is ahead by more than three points.
It was changed from the last five minutes because the five-minute mark just doesn't feel big enough or important enough when watching close games and because it is much easier to track the last two minutes of a game as compared to the last five minutes.
Players who make shots during this time will be judged based on whether their team is behind, tied or leading with the following priority:
(1.) Trailing
(2.) Tied
(3.) Leading
Priority will also be given based on the time the shot takes place, with the following order of importance:
(1.) 0-10 seconds
(2.) 10.1-24 seconds
(3.) 24.1-30 seconds
(4.) 30.1-1:00 minute
(5.) 1:01-1:30 seconds
(6.) 1:31-2:00 minutes
So a player who hits a go-ahead shot with two minutes left won't be considered as clutch as a player who hits one with 10 seconds remaining.
Game-winners will be defined as shots with 10 seconds or less in the fourth quarter or overtime which give a team the lead for good. This matches how Elias Sports Bureau defines and tracks game-winners.
Game-winning shots will be prioritized in the following order:
(1.) Lead-changing game-winners
(2.) Game-winners
(3.) Game-clinchers
Game-clinchers or icers or daggers aren't really game-winners because they come when the team is already ahead. But something had to be created for players who put games away like this.
Lead-changing game-winners are defined as the most clutch due to the player having so much on the line.
For a player who misses a shot with the score tied, the worst which can happen is that the game goes into overtime.
But a player who misses a shot when his team is behind loses the game. He then has to answer all of the questions about what happened and live for a minimum of 24 hours with the fact that he let his team down.
It is such a pressurized situation that players who step up to the challenge deserve more credit when they pull it off.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Friday, November 26, 2010
SEASON-OPENING POWER POLL
This is the first of what will be five power polls taken at key points during the NBA season.
Each poll will represent a snapshot of the season at the time it was taken. And when the season is over, they can be looked back on to see the overall picture of how the season developed.
The teams and orders will no doubt change between now and the end of the season, but this is how the league stacks up after the first month.
(1.) San Antonio (13-1)
(2.) Los Angeles (13-2)
(3.) New Orleans (11-3)
(4.) Boston (11-4)
(5.) Dallas (10-4)
(6.) Orlando (10-4)
(7.) Utah (11-5)
(8.) Oklahoma City (10-5)
(9.) Chicago (8-5)
(10.) Denver (8-6)
The four remaining power polls: Mid-Season Power Poll; Playoff Push Power Poll; Playoff Power Poll; Season-Ending Power Poll.
They will be taken after about 41 games, after the trade deadline (Feb. 24), before the playoffs or during the first round and at the end of the season.
HARRISON BARNES POLL
It's never too early to start projecting the 2011 NBA Draft.
Pretty soon teams will start trading away veterans, playing their best players fewer minutes, having players miss games with minor "injuries," playing lineups which they know can't win and whole host of other things to increase their chances of hitting the jackpot.
That hasn't started on a wide scale yet, but here are the teams who sit in pole position as the race for Harrison Barnes is about to take off.
(1.) Los Angeles (3-13)
(2.) Philadelphia (3-12)
(3.) Minnesota (4-12)
(4.) Sacramento (4-10)
(5.) Houston (4-10)
(6.) New Jersey (5-10)
(7.) Detroit (5-10)
(8.) Charlotte (5-10)
(9.) Milwaukee (5-9)
(10.) Washington (5-9)
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Each poll will represent a snapshot of the season at the time it was taken. And when the season is over, they can be looked back on to see the overall picture of how the season developed.
The teams and orders will no doubt change between now and the end of the season, but this is how the league stacks up after the first month.
(1.) San Antonio (13-1)
(2.) Los Angeles (13-2)
(3.) New Orleans (11-3)
(4.) Boston (11-4)
(5.) Dallas (10-4)
(6.) Orlando (10-4)
(7.) Utah (11-5)
(8.) Oklahoma City (10-5)
(9.) Chicago (8-5)
(10.) Denver (8-6)
The four remaining power polls: Mid-Season Power Poll; Playoff Push Power Poll; Playoff Power Poll; Season-Ending Power Poll.
They will be taken after about 41 games, after the trade deadline (Feb. 24), before the playoffs or during the first round and at the end of the season.
HARRISON BARNES POLL
It's never too early to start projecting the 2011 NBA Draft.
Pretty soon teams will start trading away veterans, playing their best players fewer minutes, having players miss games with minor "injuries," playing lineups which they know can't win and whole host of other things to increase their chances of hitting the jackpot.
That hasn't started on a wide scale yet, but here are the teams who sit in pole position as the race for Harrison Barnes is about to take off.
(1.) Los Angeles (3-13)
(2.) Philadelphia (3-12)
(3.) Minnesota (4-12)
(4.) Sacramento (4-10)
(5.) Houston (4-10)
(6.) New Jersey (5-10)
(7.) Detroit (5-10)
(8.) Charlotte (5-10)
(9.) Milwaukee (5-9)
(10.) Washington (5-9)
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Saturday, November 20, 2010
As The Basketball World Turns
Stories for the NBA season are now starting to take shape.
Teams have had a good number of games to play together and get used to each other, and you can already see separation taking place between the best teams and the worst teams.
You can also see predictions starting to go up in smoke!
So much for those Clipper predictions. People are jumping off of that bandwagon faster than two Baron Davis three-point attempts.
And that's fast!
The most surprising story to me has been Miami. Who would have ever thought that a team with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh on it would not only struggle to win games but also be hard to watch?
It just goes to show you.
STAN FLUNKS PSYCHOLOGY
After Miami pulverized Orlando a few weeks ago, Stan Van Gundy had some interesting things to say about his team, "We don't have -- and this isn't to put down anybody in our locker room -- but we don't have the great one-on-one players.
"I mean, we don't have [Dwyane] Wade and [LeBron] James and Paul Pierce and Kobe Bryant.
"And so for us to play well offensively, we have to get great ball movement. We really have to execute and move the ball.
"And yeah, we struggled to do that against a very good team in Boston and we struggled to do that again tonight."
Great motivator, that Stan Van Gundy.
How would he like it if one of his players said ...
Not to put down anybody in our locker room, but we don't have a great offensive coach like Phil Jackson or Doc Rivers or Nate McMillan.
So in order to play well offensively we have to use our skills and athleticism to make up for the poor play-calling and unimaginative sets. And we didn't do that again tonight ... ?
And how is this going over with Otis Smith, the general manager who gave Van Gundy this team supposedly without any great one-on-one players?
It would work much better for Van Gundy to say that they have very good one-on-one players, but it makes the game much easier and the team better and more efficient when they pass the basketball.
WILL "THE CHILL"
This was touched on in my "Eastern Conference Preview," but that was before any games were played, and I didn't express myself clearly.
Detroit really needs a pass-first point guard to back up Rodney Stuckey.
In his first six games of the season, backup point guard Will Bynum shot the ball 39 times compared to only 12 assists, a 3.25:1 ratio.
The box score against the Clippers is a perfect example of the problem, even though Detroit was able to win the game because they were playing the undermanned Clippers.
The players coming off the pine with Bynum shot .654, compared to his .250; yet he still shot the ball four times for every assist he made.
With the explosive arsenal Detroit has coming off the bench, there is no way Will Bynum should be shooting the ball that much.
Detroit could average 110 points per game with a pass-first point guard who knows how to play the game in his spot.
The No. 4 spot in the East is up for grabs, and Detroit could easily snatch it by upgrading the backup point guard position on their roster.
It is true that Joe Dumars loves Will Bynum (:46), but Bynum's excessive shooting is creating a "chilling effect" on Detroit's offense.
Dumars has to do what is best for the team and make a move here.
Greg Monroe must also get more playing time.
On a team where 36-year-old Ben Wallace is the only semblance of a big man other than Monroe, Monroe should be playing 30+ minutes every night.
Monroe's lack of playing time is an embarrassingly poor coaching decision by John Kuester.
Note: Will Bynum did have his distribution game going in the second half of a blowout loss to the Lakers. And against Golden State he shot only three times with two assists. He deserves credit for sharing the basketball and being very unselfish during that time.
THE INFIRMARY
I saw Oklahoma City play San Antonio in the return of Nick Collison and Jeff Green. Even though they lost, it was the first game I saw this season where they looked like the team from last year.
Watching the game, you could see how the team played with more energy because it had more fresh bodies available.
It showed that missing even a seemingly minor rotation player can disrupt a team and throw everything off.
And missing two players can be a disaster.
CBS Sports does the best job of tracking and updating these injuries.
These are the teams who have been most devastated by critical injuries to key rotation players with the number of games each player has missed in parentheses.
Teams have played about 12 games so far this season.
Denver -- Chris Andersen (all); Kenyon Martin (all); Nene (3).
Houston -- Aaron Brooks (7); Kyle Lowry (4); Yao Ming (7).
Los Angeles -- Baron Davis (9); Randy Foye (10); Chris Kaman (5).
Miami -- Mario Chalmers (4), limited in others; Mike Miller (all).
Milwaukee -- Carlos Delfino (5); Chris Douglas-Roberts (all); Michael Redd (all).
Minnesota -- Wayne Ellington (5); Jonny Flynn (all); Nikola Pekovic (4); Luke Ridnour (5); Martell Webster (all).
Oklahoma City -- Nick Collison (8); Jeff Green (6).
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Teams have had a good number of games to play together and get used to each other, and you can already see separation taking place between the best teams and the worst teams.
You can also see predictions starting to go up in smoke!
So much for those Clipper predictions. People are jumping off of that bandwagon faster than two Baron Davis three-point attempts.
And that's fast!
The most surprising story to me has been Miami. Who would have ever thought that a team with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh on it would not only struggle to win games but also be hard to watch?
It just goes to show you.
STAN FLUNKS PSYCHOLOGY
After Miami pulverized Orlando a few weeks ago, Stan Van Gundy had some interesting things to say about his team, "We don't have -- and this isn't to put down anybody in our locker room -- but we don't have the great one-on-one players.
"I mean, we don't have [Dwyane] Wade and [LeBron] James and Paul Pierce and Kobe Bryant.
"And so for us to play well offensively, we have to get great ball movement. We really have to execute and move the ball.
"And yeah, we struggled to do that against a very good team in Boston and we struggled to do that again tonight."
Great motivator, that Stan Van Gundy.
How would he like it if one of his players said ...
Not to put down anybody in our locker room, but we don't have a great offensive coach like Phil Jackson or Doc Rivers or Nate McMillan.
So in order to play well offensively we have to use our skills and athleticism to make up for the poor play-calling and unimaginative sets. And we didn't do that again tonight ... ?
And how is this going over with Otis Smith, the general manager who gave Van Gundy this team supposedly without any great one-on-one players?
It would work much better for Van Gundy to say that they have very good one-on-one players, but it makes the game much easier and the team better and more efficient when they pass the basketball.
WILL "THE CHILL"
This was touched on in my "Eastern Conference Preview," but that was before any games were played, and I didn't express myself clearly.
Detroit really needs a pass-first point guard to back up Rodney Stuckey.
In his first six games of the season, backup point guard Will Bynum shot the ball 39 times compared to only 12 assists, a 3.25:1 ratio.
The box score against the Clippers is a perfect example of the problem, even though Detroit was able to win the game because they were playing the undermanned Clippers.
The players coming off the pine with Bynum shot .654, compared to his .250; yet he still shot the ball four times for every assist he made.
With the explosive arsenal Detroit has coming off the bench, there is no way Will Bynum should be shooting the ball that much.
Detroit could average 110 points per game with a pass-first point guard who knows how to play the game in his spot.
The No. 4 spot in the East is up for grabs, and Detroit could easily snatch it by upgrading the backup point guard position on their roster.
It is true that Joe Dumars loves Will Bynum (:46), but Bynum's excessive shooting is creating a "chilling effect" on Detroit's offense.
Dumars has to do what is best for the team and make a move here.
Greg Monroe must also get more playing time.
On a team where 36-year-old Ben Wallace is the only semblance of a big man other than Monroe, Monroe should be playing 30+ minutes every night.
Monroe's lack of playing time is an embarrassingly poor coaching decision by John Kuester.
Note: Will Bynum did have his distribution game going in the second half of a blowout loss to the Lakers. And against Golden State he shot only three times with two assists. He deserves credit for sharing the basketball and being very unselfish during that time.
THE INFIRMARY
I saw Oklahoma City play San Antonio in the return of Nick Collison and Jeff Green. Even though they lost, it was the first game I saw this season where they looked like the team from last year.
Watching the game, you could see how the team played with more energy because it had more fresh bodies available.
It showed that missing even a seemingly minor rotation player can disrupt a team and throw everything off.
And missing two players can be a disaster.
CBS Sports does the best job of tracking and updating these injuries.
These are the teams who have been most devastated by critical injuries to key rotation players with the number of games each player has missed in parentheses.
Teams have played about 12 games so far this season.
Denver -- Chris Andersen (all); Kenyon Martin (all); Nene (3).
Houston -- Aaron Brooks (7); Kyle Lowry (4); Yao Ming (7).
Los Angeles -- Baron Davis (9); Randy Foye (10); Chris Kaman (5).
Miami -- Mario Chalmers (4), limited in others; Mike Miller (all).
Milwaukee -- Carlos Delfino (5); Chris Douglas-Roberts (all); Michael Redd (all).
Minnesota -- Wayne Ellington (5); Jonny Flynn (all); Nikola Pekovic (4); Luke Ridnour (5); Martell Webster (all).
Oklahoma City -- Nick Collison (8); Jeff Green (6).
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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Sunday, November 7, 2010
The NBA's Best Point Guards
Everything in basketball begins and ends with the point guard position. The NBA has seen a resurgence at the position over the last several years thanks to an influx of young talent.
At the same time, some trusty veterans have kept their games, making the point guard position today what the power forward position used to be several years ago.
Point guards mainly fall into three types, depending on their skills, mentalities and roles on their teams.
Here are the best point guards in the NBA.
THE CONDUCTORS
Conductors execute their teams' offenses to perfection. They make sure everyone is where they are supposed to be and always make the right pass or decision. They also improvise and make plays outside of the set offense to help their teams win.
Due to various factors like age, mentality, team role or limited skill in some areas, conductors can't consistently dominate games by scoring.
Still, they have high basketball IQs, amazing court vision, dribbling and passing skills and the ability to control a game from start to finish.
Mike Bibby (Hawks). Mike Bibby isn't the explosive scorer he once was at Sacramento but hasn't lost his touch. He has settled into running the Atlanta offense and getting the ball to his offensive weapons.
Going all the way back to his college days as an Arizona Wildcat, Bibby also has a well-earned reputation as a deadly clutch shooter.
Jose Calderon (Raptors). The biggest problem for Calderon is that he plays for the Toronto Raptors. It is no fun watching him play with that miserable cast of scrubs, losers, cast-offs and wannabes. Put him on a team surrounded by some exciting talent, and his team and career will no doubt take off.
TJ Ford (Pacers). Ford was injured and missed half of last season. Now that he is back, he is starting to show his value again. He controls the tempo of the game with the best of them and has been playing aggressive, tough defense. His jumper is far more consistent than it was when he came into the league.
Jason Kidd (Mavericks). There may never be another Jason Kidd. He is known as a player who can dominate a basketball game without taking a shot. Kidd's court vision and passing skills are second to none maybe in the history of the game and continue to create wonder even though we've seen it for years. He will definitely go down as one of the best ever.
Andre Miller (Trail Blazers). He might be the most underrated player in sports. But when it comes to making an offense run like a well-oiled machine, absolutely no one does it better than Andre Miller.
Miller is a crafty veteran who makes plays and defeats opponents with his mind and his skills, and playing in Nate McMillan's well-designed offense and with Portland's explosive supporting cast only makes him that much better.
Rajon Rondo (Celtics). Rajon Rondo has grown up before our very eyes. It wasn't long ago that people were questioning whether or not Boston could win a title with him as a starter.
Now he may be the best player on the team.
Doc Rivers is another coach with a well-designed offense, with more plays, bluffs, counters and deceptions than defenses know what to do with. And Rondo executes them all to perfection.
Together, Rivers and Rondo are like Bill Walsh and Joe Montana.
THE SCORERS
NBA point guards come in all types. One of those is the scoring or "shoot-first" point guard. Shoot-first point guards typically would rather score than pass or don't have great passing ability or don't have the ability to run an offense.
They can be clutch, or they can be out of control. But whatever the case may be, they have a passion for putting the ball in the basket.
Chauncey Billups (Nuggets). Known as "Mr. Big Shot," Chauncey Billups is one of the most clutch shooters in the NBA. He led Detroit to a title in 2004 and led Denver to the conference finals a few years later. When the game is on the line, there is no one you would rather have shooting the basketball.
Baron Davis (Clippers). Everybody knows Baron Davis has a tendency to fall in love with the three-pointer. He also has a tendency to fall in love with many other shots as well, despite his great passing skills. He can take over and dominate a basketball game with his offense or his defense, and when he is on his game, there is no one better.
Brandon Jennings (Bucks). His unique and colorful hairstyles and his shimmies bring new flavor to the game. And his skills have helped bring passion for basketball back to Milwaukee. Jennings is a tough competitor who plays the game to win. He took Milwaukee to the playoffs last year and will fight to take them even further this time around.
Jameer Nelson (Magic). Jameer Nelson is the Reggie Jackson of the Orlando Magic: He is the straw that stirs the drink. When he plays well, Orlando is usually unbeatable. He overcame his early lack of aggression in the conference finals last year against Boston but wasn't able to bring the team all the way back from a 0-3 deficit. The results could be different this season.
Tony Parker (Spurs). He has won three NBA titles in San Antonio. His speed and ball-handling create all kinds of problems for teams, and he's added a reliable jumper to go with it, making him nearly unstoppable at times. On an aging team, Parker is still in his prime.
Derrick Rose (Bulls). There aren't enough words in this article to fully describe Derrick Rose. He went toe-to-toe with LeBron James in the playoffs last year, and I couldn't tell who the better player was.
His lefts and scoops and floaters and teardrops keep defenders guessing, and now he is starting to read defenses and lower his FGA:A ratio.
He appears to be well on his way to becoming a complete point guard.
Russell Westbrook (Thunder). Along with Kevin Durant and Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook is one of the faces of the new darlings of the NBA. He exploded onto the scene with his performance against Los Angeles in the playoffs last year.
Westbrook is one of the most exciting players in the NBA, and he plays the point guard position with speed and fury. He is too much for defenses in the open court and can either dish off a pass or bring down the house with a monster dunk.
THE DOMINATORS
The dominators are the most complete point guards in the game. They can score at will or pick defenses apart with their precision passing and perfect play-calling or improvisation.
When they bring the ball up the court, the defense is at their mercy due to the wide range of skills that they bring to the table.
They often leave defenses frustrated and helpless because, as the saying goes, you can't stop them ... you can only hope to contain them.
Stephen Curry (Warriors). In just his second season, Stephen Curry has clearly established himself as one of the best point guards in the game. His jumper is as pure as mountain snow, and his court vision and spectacular passing skills are a delight to basketball fans everywhere.
He combines that with slick, streetball dribble moves to make himself an elite and highly-skilled competitor. Curry established himself as a big-game player in college, taking tiny Davidson against some Goliaths of college basketball and giving them a real run for their money.
He is more of an improviser than a play-caller at this point but still executes Golden State's offense like an old-school veteran.
Steve Nash (Suns). Steve Nash also is more of an improviser than a play-caller. But he makes it up as he goes along better than most players think it out ahead of time.
Nash has turned Phoenix into one of the highest-scoring teams in the league during his time there and led them to the conference finals last season.
He keeps opponents off balance and his team ahead with an unlimited variety of trick shots, dribble moves, no-looks and fake-outs.
Even with his advancing age, Steve Nash continues to maintain his status as one of the game's finest point guards.
Chris Paul (Hornets). Let the debate begin. The question of who is the best point guard in the NBA is one of the most heated debates going. And all parties involved are doing their part to keep the debate going for many years to come.
It's a pleasure to see Chris Paul surrounded by some exciting talent again. With a better supporting cast, he can now put more of his skills on display.
Paul is back to crossing opponents up, controlling the tempo, picking teams apart, throwing silly passes and getting takeaways. It was painful to watch him play on such bad and boring teams.
He can execute set plays or improvise just as well.
And of all the point guards in this category, Chris Paul is far and away the best defensive player.
Deron Williams (Jazz). His play against Denver in the playoffs last year kicked the point guard debate into high-gear. All of a sudden, people were and still are saying that Deron Williams is the best point guard in the NBA.
It's hard to argue with them.
Williams runs Utah's offense like no other. His quick thinking and precise passing constantly catch defenses napping, and he can drop 30 at any given moment and make it look easy.
He can take the ball out of the net and execute a fast break off of a made basket or walk the ball up the court and grind out two points with a set play.
Deron Williams is truly one of the game's very best. The only thing he can't seem to do is find a way to defeat his nemesis, the Los Angeles Lakers.
But the other point guards on the list couldn't do it either.
Note: Even though I talked about Chris Paul under a prior section titled "THE BEST POINT GUARD IN THE NBA," I don't believe there is a such thing as the best point guard or anything else in the NBA other than the best team, and that is the Los Angeles Lakers.
I only did that to take a shot at Charles Barkley and others who have been saying Deron Williams is the best point guard in the NBA.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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At the same time, some trusty veterans have kept their games, making the point guard position today what the power forward position used to be several years ago.
Point guards mainly fall into three types, depending on their skills, mentalities and roles on their teams.
Here are the best point guards in the NBA.
THE CONDUCTORS
Conductors execute their teams' offenses to perfection. They make sure everyone is where they are supposed to be and always make the right pass or decision. They also improvise and make plays outside of the set offense to help their teams win.
Due to various factors like age, mentality, team role or limited skill in some areas, conductors can't consistently dominate games by scoring.
Still, they have high basketball IQs, amazing court vision, dribbling and passing skills and the ability to control a game from start to finish.
Mike Bibby (Hawks). Mike Bibby isn't the explosive scorer he once was at Sacramento but hasn't lost his touch. He has settled into running the Atlanta offense and getting the ball to his offensive weapons.
Going all the way back to his college days as an Arizona Wildcat, Bibby also has a well-earned reputation as a deadly clutch shooter.
Jose Calderon (Raptors). The biggest problem for Calderon is that he plays for the Toronto Raptors. It is no fun watching him play with that miserable cast of scrubs, losers, cast-offs and wannabes. Put him on a team surrounded by some exciting talent, and his team and career will no doubt take off.
TJ Ford (Pacers). Ford was injured and missed half of last season. Now that he is back, he is starting to show his value again. He controls the tempo of the game with the best of them and has been playing aggressive, tough defense. His jumper is far more consistent than it was when he came into the league.
Jason Kidd (Mavericks). There may never be another Jason Kidd. He is known as a player who can dominate a basketball game without taking a shot. Kidd's court vision and passing skills are second to none maybe in the history of the game and continue to create wonder even though we've seen it for years. He will definitely go down as one of the best ever.
Andre Miller (Trail Blazers). He might be the most underrated player in sports. But when it comes to making an offense run like a well-oiled machine, absolutely no one does it better than Andre Miller.
Miller is a crafty veteran who makes plays and defeats opponents with his mind and his skills, and playing in Nate McMillan's well-designed offense and with Portland's explosive supporting cast only makes him that much better.
Rajon Rondo (Celtics). Rajon Rondo has grown up before our very eyes. It wasn't long ago that people were questioning whether or not Boston could win a title with him as a starter.
Now he may be the best player on the team.
Doc Rivers is another coach with a well-designed offense, with more plays, bluffs, counters and deceptions than defenses know what to do with. And Rondo executes them all to perfection.
Together, Rivers and Rondo are like Bill Walsh and Joe Montana.
THE SCORERS
NBA point guards come in all types. One of those is the scoring or "shoot-first" point guard. Shoot-first point guards typically would rather score than pass or don't have great passing ability or don't have the ability to run an offense.
They can be clutch, or they can be out of control. But whatever the case may be, they have a passion for putting the ball in the basket.
Chauncey Billups (Nuggets). Known as "Mr. Big Shot," Chauncey Billups is one of the most clutch shooters in the NBA. He led Detroit to a title in 2004 and led Denver to the conference finals a few years later. When the game is on the line, there is no one you would rather have shooting the basketball.
Baron Davis (Clippers). Everybody knows Baron Davis has a tendency to fall in love with the three-pointer. He also has a tendency to fall in love with many other shots as well, despite his great passing skills. He can take over and dominate a basketball game with his offense or his defense, and when he is on his game, there is no one better.
Brandon Jennings (Bucks). His unique and colorful hairstyles and his shimmies bring new flavor to the game. And his skills have helped bring passion for basketball back to Milwaukee. Jennings is a tough competitor who plays the game to win. He took Milwaukee to the playoffs last year and will fight to take them even further this time around.
Jameer Nelson (Magic). Jameer Nelson is the Reggie Jackson of the Orlando Magic: He is the straw that stirs the drink. When he plays well, Orlando is usually unbeatable. He overcame his early lack of aggression in the conference finals last year against Boston but wasn't able to bring the team all the way back from a 0-3 deficit. The results could be different this season.
Tony Parker (Spurs). He has won three NBA titles in San Antonio. His speed and ball-handling create all kinds of problems for teams, and he's added a reliable jumper to go with it, making him nearly unstoppable at times. On an aging team, Parker is still in his prime.
Derrick Rose (Bulls). There aren't enough words in this article to fully describe Derrick Rose. He went toe-to-toe with LeBron James in the playoffs last year, and I couldn't tell who the better player was.
His lefts and scoops and floaters and teardrops keep defenders guessing, and now he is starting to read defenses and lower his FGA:A ratio.
He appears to be well on his way to becoming a complete point guard.
Russell Westbrook (Thunder). Along with Kevin Durant and Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook is one of the faces of the new darlings of the NBA. He exploded onto the scene with his performance against Los Angeles in the playoffs last year.
Westbrook is one of the most exciting players in the NBA, and he plays the point guard position with speed and fury. He is too much for defenses in the open court and can either dish off a pass or bring down the house with a monster dunk.
THE DOMINATORS
The dominators are the most complete point guards in the game. They can score at will or pick defenses apart with their precision passing and perfect play-calling or improvisation.
When they bring the ball up the court, the defense is at their mercy due to the wide range of skills that they bring to the table.
They often leave defenses frustrated and helpless because, as the saying goes, you can't stop them ... you can only hope to contain them.
Stephen Curry (Warriors). In just his second season, Stephen Curry has clearly established himself as one of the best point guards in the game. His jumper is as pure as mountain snow, and his court vision and spectacular passing skills are a delight to basketball fans everywhere.
He combines that with slick, streetball dribble moves to make himself an elite and highly-skilled competitor. Curry established himself as a big-game player in college, taking tiny Davidson against some Goliaths of college basketball and giving them a real run for their money.
He is more of an improviser than a play-caller at this point but still executes Golden State's offense like an old-school veteran.
Steve Nash (Suns). Steve Nash also is more of an improviser than a play-caller. But he makes it up as he goes along better than most players think it out ahead of time.
Nash has turned Phoenix into one of the highest-scoring teams in the league during his time there and led them to the conference finals last season.
He keeps opponents off balance and his team ahead with an unlimited variety of trick shots, dribble moves, no-looks and fake-outs.
Even with his advancing age, Steve Nash continues to maintain his status as one of the game's finest point guards.
Chris Paul (Hornets). Let the debate begin. The question of who is the best point guard in the NBA is one of the most heated debates going. And all parties involved are doing their part to keep the debate going for many years to come.
It's a pleasure to see Chris Paul surrounded by some exciting talent again. With a better supporting cast, he can now put more of his skills on display.
Paul is back to crossing opponents up, controlling the tempo, picking teams apart, throwing silly passes and getting takeaways. It was painful to watch him play on such bad and boring teams.
He can execute set plays or improvise just as well.
And of all the point guards in this category, Chris Paul is far and away the best defensive player.
Deron Williams (Jazz). His play against Denver in the playoffs last year kicked the point guard debate into high-gear. All of a sudden, people were and still are saying that Deron Williams is the best point guard in the NBA.
It's hard to argue with them.
Williams runs Utah's offense like no other. His quick thinking and precise passing constantly catch defenses napping, and he can drop 30 at any given moment and make it look easy.
He can take the ball out of the net and execute a fast break off of a made basket or walk the ball up the court and grind out two points with a set play.
Deron Williams is truly one of the game's very best. The only thing he can't seem to do is find a way to defeat his nemesis, the Los Angeles Lakers.
But the other point guards on the list couldn't do it either.
Note: Even though I talked about Chris Paul under a prior section titled "THE BEST POINT GUARD IN THE NBA," I don't believe there is a such thing as the best point guard or anything else in the NBA other than the best team, and that is the Los Angeles Lakers.
I only did that to take a shot at Charles Barkley and others who have been saying Deron Williams is the best point guard in the NBA.
Comment or e-mail: thenbaoutsider@yahoo.com
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